VA-Gov: The Swing State Project Poll

No, we haven’t hired R2K. Rather, we’re curious to know who folks here would vote for if given the opportunity this Tuesday. So whether you live in Virginia or not, please let us know who you’d support in this SSP poll. And feel free to elaborate in comments!

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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62 thoughts on “VA-Gov: The Swing State Project Poll”

  1. In this race.  Its Creigh all the way.  Putting policy, likeability and electability aside, can anyone imagine another candidate who not only has the ability to beat McDonnell but the passion this man will possess after coming ever so close in their first encounter?

    I expect to see a Kobe-esque will to win and a Clinton-like work ethic on the trail from Creigh should he come out on top.  Man I hope he wins.  Cant wait until Tuesday. It will be exciting.  

  2. And I have friends that are working on all three of the campaigns…which has made the decision even harder since I know there’s some good people working on all of the campaigns that want the same thing – Bob McDonnell to go down in defeat.

    McAuliffe’s campaign has given me the creeps and I’ll tell you why.  They paid for a whole busload of people to go down to Richmond for the Jefferson-Jackson dinner (paid their tickets too) simply if they wore McAuliffe campaign gear.  They then gave us a “cue sheet” telling us when to cheer for certain parts of McAuliffe’s speech and when to get the crowd into a call-and-response (I’m not making this up).  And yet, even though Deeds and Moran supporters had to pay their way to get there (no small fee since the tickets were like $75 and it was 2.5 hour drive from NoVa) they still outnumbered McAulliffe’s “supporters.”  Then, for Congressman Gerry Connelley’s St. Paddy’s Day celebration and straw poll he offered to pay for people’s tickets and food – if they agreed to vote for McAuliffe in the straw poll!  I was done with Terry at this point and am not surprised his campaign has sunk – it was always built on a house of cards, and his entire support base is manufactured.  Not to mention, he reeks of opportunism.  Deeds and Moran were there when it was tough to win as a Democrat in Virginia.  McAuliffe wasn’t, but now he wants to enjoy the fruits of everyone else’s labor.

    I initially supported Moran, but have been unimpressed with his campaign.  He’s devolved too much into attacking Terry and hasn’t shown how he can win “outer” NoVa, which is a huge delineation (Alexandria’s been a Dem stronghold for over a decade now, while the suburbs/exurbs are where statewide elections are won or lost).  He also has too much baggage from his brother Jim (who just needs to go).  I like Brian and would love it if he replaced his brother in Congress, but not for executive experience.

    I am one of those folks who have drifted to Deeds.  He can win downstate, has the most thoughtful positions on state policy, and nearly beat McDonnell last time (only a few hundred votes), and if VA Dems weren’t so focused on just getting Kaine elected he probably would’ve won it.  The more people know Deeds the more they like him.  I think Virginians will think the same thing.

  3. Deeds.  Originally I was leaning towards Moran because he’s slightly more progressive and had superior fundraising, but polling indicates Deeds will be most competitive.  I’m still hesitant because he lost the Attorney General race, it will be the same matchup again.  We wouldn’t be in this predicament (McDonnell being AG running for governor) if he would have won in the first place.    

  4. I’d rank the candidates:

    1. deeds

    2. mcauliffe

    3. moran

    only on their comparative ability to win the general.  

    people hating mcauliffe never made any sense.  he’s willing to raise and spend a ton of money and do almost anything to win, similar to a certain mark warner (something i like a lot).  and carpetbaggers are ok by me up to a certain point.  i.e. they can claim a legitimate connection to the place they are running.

    but deeds seems to be running a good campaign and i like his regional angle.  i’d expect them to support the same things in general and both to win nova strongly.

    i’m trusting that deeds will be able to raise a ton of money.  and he better!

  5. Voted so in the SSP poll, voted already at the polls (early).

    Brian hasn’t run the best campaign — far too insider and endorsement focused — but he’s the best candidate to both turn out the base in November AND to not turn off independents. The Governor’s race this fall is a base election, pure and simple — and Brian wins that demographic going away.

  6. I think he has the best chance of the three to win the general election. I also originally supported Moran, but he seems to have some campaign financing issues. His negative campaigning seems a bit too much, as well.

  7. Hard, cold pragmatism on my part:  I think Deeds has the best chance of beating McDonnell.  McAuliffe and Moran much more easily can lose control of their public image and be defined by the right.  Deeds is harder to villify.

    Deeds is the ideologically the least liberal of the 3, and I’m pretty liberal, but I’m a pragmatic voter.  I want to beat McDonnell, and that’s a tough job because McDonnell is an A-list candidate:  a great personal profile and a statewide elected officeholder in a state (excuse me…”Commonwealth”…I just moved here from D.C. last year!) that has only 3 of ’em.

    I just hope Deeds doesn’t try to rhetorically “out-conservative” McDonnell like he foolishly tried to do 4 years ago.  This isn’t a liberal state, but it’s a far less conservative state than it was a decade ago, and it’s now legitimately purple.  Creigh needs to recognize that.

    And Deeds needs to do a better job raising money than he did 4 years ago.

  8. Was originally backing Moran, but given the way his campaign has been run, I’m nervous about his ability to win statewide just by racking up a big margin in the North.  Deeds came close once before, and polls the best now.

  9. I think he can best unite the party faithful after some of the nasty stuff between Moran and McAuliffe. And he will be harder for McDonnell to “liberalize” though he has to find a way to run up the numbers in NOVA when some of his positions aren’t a natural fit.

  10. Now I think he’d be sunk in the general by the allegations of impropriety.  Corruption is an especially tough charge against a liberal, because the liberal base takes that kind of stuff very seriously; the tribal side of the conservative base actually prefers a tough guy who cheats a bit.

    So now I’m for Deeds, by default.  He seems like a decent guy, and he would have won AG if we hadn’t overinvested in Kaine so much (Kaine won by what, 6 points or something?).  And running a downstater really is better politics longterm than running a NoVa guy.

  11. If I still voted in VA, where I went for college (and interned for Tim Kaine’s campaign,) I’d vote for Deeds for sure.  But that’s not really what I want to say.

    It really is remarkable the level of discussion and analysis on this blog and I just want to thank everyone.  I don’t read the comments on many blogs, but so many have so much to contribute here.  Really great.  Thanks everyone.  

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