The Swing State Project is changing ratings on five different gubernatorial races, three of which favor Dems and two of which favor the GOP. We’re also republishing our full race rating chart. As always, you can find our perma-post here.
| Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA (Patrick) MD (O’Malley) NM (Open) OH (Strickland) WI (Doyle) |
CA (Open) CO (Ritter) HI (Open) ME (Open) OR (Open) |
FL (Open) MI (Open) MN (Open) NV (Gibbons) NJ (Corzine) PA (Open) RI (Open) VA (Open) |
AZ (Brewer) GA (Open) OK (Open) TN (Open) |
AL (Open) KS (Open) SC (Open) SD (Open) WY (Open) |
Races to Watch:
AK (Palin)
CT (Rell)
IA (Culver)
IL (Quinn)
NY (Paterson)
TX (Perry)
UT (Herbert)
VT (Douglas)
With former Gov. Roy Barnes’ entrance into the race, this contest just became very interesting. Two different surveys (Insider Advantage and Research 2000) have shown Barnes in a good position against a range of possible Republican candidates. Barnes first has to navigate the Dem primary (where Attorney General Thurbert Baker & House Minority Leader DuBose Porter present formidable obstacles), though the only primary poll to date shows him with a big lead, and he may yet clear the field. This race is likely to become more competitive rather than less so as time progresses.
While we haven’t seen any head-to-head polling in Iowa yet this year, Gov. Chet Culver’s approvals have started to head southward, according to both SurveyUSA and the Des Moines Register. Meanwhile, the GOP appears to have netted a relatively non-crazy candidate, former state House Speaker Chris Rants. Are we really worried about Culver’s prospects? No – or at least, not yet. But with so many incumbent governors taking scorching heat for the brutal economy, this race bears watching.
Most other folks with poll numbers as lousy as Deval Patrick’s would be in a lot more trouble than this. Luckily, he’s running for re-election in Massachusetts. Still, Kwik-E-Mart magnate Christy Mihos, who garnered 7% of the vote as an independent in 2006, is seeking a rematch, and he got more money than Picasso got paint. It’s enough to give Patrick serious headaches.
Even if Tim Pawlenty had decided to seek re-election, this race likely would have reached Tossup status at some point. But with T-Paw busy checking out the color of his parachute, the timetable’s accelerated. The field is very much in flux on both sides, but if anything, Dems will have a slight edge just given the blue background hue of this state.
We aren’t getting excited about the possibility of chucking out Republican Jim Douglas just yet. But the Dems have a better slate of potential candidates (including Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz) than they have in the past, and Douglas is facing his first election in hard times. He’s started to get dinged on some local issues, and of course had a high-profile defeat on gay marriage. And a January R2K poll showed him with a not-so-hot 52-41 approval rating. The key here will be Vermont’s left-wing Progressive Party; if they hold their fire, then a Democrat could do some real damage.
I think Nevada is lean D, not a tossup. Gibbons is really unpopular and the Republican party is doing really badly in Nevada. They are having trouble finding a good candidate against Harry Reid and they lost a U.S house seat in 2008.
Probably the same with Rhode Island but with Chafee possibly jumping in toss up is understandable. Anyone know if Feudental in Wyoming is running again or how that story panned out I missed that one. I’m guessing not if it’s Likely R. Is Wisconsin near secure? Or should be worried about that one I remember it was pretty competitive up untill about september in 06. Finally any chance there have been any head-head polls in Colorado?
Some I disagree with though:
CT – Not a race to watch. Jodi Rell has bulletproof approval ratings upwards of 60%. While she will likely face Secretary of State Susan Byciewicz (spelling?) Rell is as safe as can be (her decision not to oppose the gay marriage decision was a stroke of genius). This one is a likely retention, sad as it is.
MN – I’m going to be pessimistic and say it’s a lean R until Dean Barkley (the Independent candidate that siphoned off anti-Coleman support in 2008 and created this current recount mess) officially decides he will not run for Governor (he said he is considering it). If we have another third party candidate in the race the Republicans will win.
MA – The wildcard in the race is Treasurer Tim Cahill, a Democrat. Cahill has intimated he may primary Patrick or even run as an Independent.
New Jersey is lean GOP right now. Corzine is down double digits in the polls and his approvals are at -20 (per Quinnipiac today). Hard to see it any other way.
Also, I would say that Oklahoma and Tennessee are likely Republican right now. We have decent nominees in OK, but it is going to be really hard. In Tennessee, do we even have anyone credible yet?
The polls always show a republican winning in New Jersey and then a democrat wins. Corzine has already put millions into his campaign. In addition, there is a lot of stuff to use against Christie. He has connection to George W Bush and was appointed to his previous by him and he said publically on tv that he would not take the stimulus money if he was governor. Worst case scenario in November.
50% Corzine
48% Christie