Michigan: A Master Work of Redistricting

Below, in three parts, I am going to display the piece of redistricting that I am most proud of so far, Michigan. I might have settled for less than some people, but I can make a guarantee; I guarantee you that under this map Thadeus McCotter is screwed six ways from Sunday, and that Democrats will have too, reliable, if swingish, western Michigan seats, and that a 10-4 delegation is tough, but fair seeing the direction Michigan has been trending the past two decades.  

To start let me give you a view of northern Michigan, where two districts take up almost 2/3rds of the state’s landmass:

(I apologize, on this map version there are no numbers, but in the main view below both are numbered, for references blue is the 1st and green the 2nd, as any familiar with the app will know).

Okay. Northern Michigan was fairly simple, and only small changes. Mainly I cut conservative Antrim County from MI-01 and overall added, to meet population demands, the rest of Bay County, which gives the district a firm Democratic anchor. Now the Up is already a lot more Democratic on a state and local level than a Presidential one so MI-01, though still swingish, is fairly secure for Democrats under this map, not that any Republican could ever beat Bart Stupak. Now I don’t have moral qualms about splitting counties, but it is nice split only one county.

MI-02 is also a nice lesson in compactness and sensibility, as it contains most of rural upstate Michigan and remains fairly conservative, and would be an easy district for Dave Camp to hold, especially with his home county of Midland in it, (I toyed with the idea of making a Midland-Geneese-Saginaw based district). Basically its mostly Republican territory, though not gerrymandered that way. Its very agricultural and rural and would share a common interest in Congress, a well done district in my mind.

Now here is the main part of Michigan:

My main goal was to give Muskegeon and Grand Rapids a more moderate representative, so combining them together formed a Democratic leaning, but somewhat swingish, (if you don’t use Obama’s stellar Western Michigan numbers), district. Then I merged much of Hoekstra and Upton’s districts and got a new, Ottawa-Allegan-St. Berien based district that is extremely conservative and strongly Republican. Unfortunately its so conservative that the Ottawa County Republican it will elect this year will probably take out the most moderate member of the states Republican delegation, Fred Upton.

My next goal was to make a more reliably Democratic Central Michigan district. We’ve failed time and again to take down Mike Rogers and we already had Schauer. I looked at his district and saw that it contained many rural, solidly conservative areas, plus some conservative, swingish suburban areas and Battle Creek in Calhoun. Battle Creek is only mildly Democratic leaning, even though it is Schauer’s base, and Calhoun is swingish to conservative. So overall it is R+1.5 according to my calcs, and a lot more problematic and tough than it would appear on the surface. So I altered it, somethings just fell into my lap; heavily Democratic Kalamazoo, gerrymandered out of the district in 2002 by the GOP to keep it safe, had to be included because their was no room for it elsewhere. Beyond that it was my decision whether to take in more rural Republican territory, or take in heavily Democratic Lansing. I chose to take in Lansing, along with more conservative and suburban Eaton County in order to make an urban central Michigan district that would be reliably Democratic.

The only nasty district is the new sixth, as you see. Its Mike Rogers new district, and its not very pretty. It takes up most of rural western and central Michigan, plus the city of Jackson and suburban, (and strongly Republican), Livingston county. I went this direction partially because Rogers district was unwinnable with Livingston and its other territory in it, but I didn’t want to cede McCotter and weaken Schauer to take him out so I gave him a conservative Central Michigan seat that will be reliably Republican in the near future.

As you can also see the new 12th was almost completely removed from Wayne county, its now mostly based in Washtenaw, Lenawee and Monroe, but its still very liberal and reliably Democratic, its just not based in the immediate blue collar suburbs of Detroit like it has traditionally been it’s now much larger in area.

As you can see the 7th and the 8th are almost unchanged, a Republican leaning thumb district, and a Flint north-central Michigan district that is very Democratic.

Here’s a close up of Detroit, and keen eyes should see immediately how I screwed McCotter and how desperate I was to make sure he would not get reelected, (assuming he survives this round):

Again, sorry, but this batch was not numbered for some reason, (got erased when I did pasted the picture), but they remain on the main picture if you would like to reference.

Take note of the pink district, that is MI-10, and it is meant for McCotter. I was pretty angry almost with it, lol. I stripped his base Livonia, which despite being fairly Democratic inexplicably votes for him due to his mother’s influence. Then I took out most of the more exurban and conservative Oakland County areas that used to comprise the northern in, and went one step further and took in almost all of Dingell’s current district, putting in totally new and heavily blue collar, strongly Democratic areas like Romulus, Taylor, Dearborn and Westland in a new Wayne county based 10th. Believe me, he’ll be gone in that district, around 65-35 Obama, 70% new, no way to win. And he can’t run with Livonia, that’s in even more Democratic, and majority black, MI-14, the grungy green color.

In fact he might have much more luck running against Gary Peters in MI-09, the bright blue, though it still be very terrible odds, a strong two term incumbent a fairly Democratic leaning and trending Oakland district, and almost completely new to McCotter. So I give him little odds.

My only scruples with the Detroit are are actually MI-09 and MI-11, (bright neon green), Sander Levin and Gary Peters’ districts. MI-11 more so, because the current territory Levin represents is strong Democratic, about 62-38, but eying this new district, (where I tried to make minimal changes), it seems like it couldn’t be too much more than a 56% Obama performance, I dunno, maybe I’m underestimating his performance in southern Macomb as opposed to northern Macomb. And of course politically Peters’ district remains about the same on the spectrum, though with some new territory and a good deal more suburban out Oakland. Republicans still have a very solid roster of candidates and a good deal of local power in Oakland, so I would have liked to give Peters a somewhat more secure district.

The two VRA districts remain so. Both are overwhelmingly Democratic, and I tried to make sure they were both fairly compact, one north Detroit and one south. The north one takes in Livonia out of outer Wayne and part of Oakland in Farmington Hills, but Democratic leaning areas anyway, but much whiter and somewhat more affluent. But the demographics remain: 381,585 black, 280,623 white, 21,205 Asian, and 12,1918 Hispanic. The two aren’t so much north and south as east and west, and the 14th takes in the western side of the city and is slightly less black, but has a much larger Hispanic population; 366,283 black, 258,019 white, 82,863 Hispanic, 15,089 Asian.

So on the whole is a very good map, with mostly compact districts and not to much bad gerrymandering. With drawing this map I’m making two major assumptions, one, that Democrats will take the State Senate, two, that Democrats will hold the governorship. Since both seem slightly more likely than not to me at this early point, (being forced to make a call), I chose to use my Democratic gerrymander and not the much rosier, (for the GOP), compromise map.

I like it. I think its a good map that gives good representation to the various interests in the states delegation and doesn’t split many communities at all. Its 9-5, which I think is imminently fair, since the state is moving towards a more reliably Democratic point. I tend to think, when gerrymandering, in terms of the states overall leanings and whats fair, (the Oregon map was just to see how it would turn out), and not just drawing a bunch of swing districts.

It technically challenges two Republicans, Vernon Ehlers from Grand Rapids, and Thadeus McCotter. It is a possibility that Ehlers could hold his seat if Obama’s performance declines significantly and it turns out the Western Michigan numbers were a one time fluke, but either way it remains swingish, with a definite and reliable Democratic lean in Muskegeon, (don’t know why, it borders Ottawa), and Grand Rapids now a swingish, if not Democratic leaning, City itself. McCotter has no chance of survival unless he is the next Chet Edwards, which I doubt, since he’s really struggled the last two cycles in a much more favorable district and against completely unheralded challengers.

So, lets here, what are your thoughts. Oh, and like I beat on yesterday, (hahaa), PLEASE VOTE IN THE POLL not yelling, just making sure people see it. People finally started yesterday, but I at one point i had like 4 different commenter and not one vote in the poll. Even if you don’t care, please vote. I use it as a sort of counter, a useful tool that I’d like to see on here one day. Its encouraging to feel you have a decent audience and that you’re not talking to 4 or 5 people, which is what it feels like sometimes. So it’d be very greatly appreciated if you’d vote, as a favor to me.

Update: After user comments I made the following adjustments to the Detroit area seats: