Rasmussen Reports (6/16, likely voters, no trendlines):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 51
Joe Sestak (D): 32
Other: 4
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±5%)
This is the first time Rasmussen is dipping its toe in the water here, so we don’t have any kind of trendline to work with. But Specter’s 19-point lead is the smallest any pollster has shown to date. (A GQR survey put Specter up 55-34). Given how far off Pennsylvania’s primary is, that doesn’t strike me as a terribly formidable margin, especially since Specter is so much better-known.
Rasmussen’s favorability numbers are a bit surprising, though. Among Dems, Specter clocks in with a 72-26 rating, not too different from a six-week-old R2K poll. However, Sestak’s 57-21 favorables seem way high. By comparison, that same R2K survey (which was also of likely voters) showed 56% having no opinion of the guy, as opposed to just 22% here. A more recent Quinnipiac poll (of RVs) showed even bigger d/ks, as did a Republican survey of LVs.
My guess is that this difference comes down to methodology. All prior polls taken of this race used live interviewers; Rasmussen uses IVR. Obviously the discrepancy is because the DOG COULD HAVE BEEN ANSWERING THE CALL. Alternately, it could just be that lower undecideds across the board, whether for favorables or head-to-heads, are simply a hallmark of the push-button nature of robopolls. You decide.
RaceTracker: PA-Sen
UPDATE: I thought this was pretty great (and hilarious) framing – Joe Sestak branded Arlen Specter a “flight risk” in a fundraising email.
Depending on how Specter acts, and the pressure broughtto beat on the campaign starting next year, whatever opinions are this year won’t matter too much.
Looks to be an interesting race for sure though.
IVR is highly unreliable because there is no way of telling whether or not the buttons are being pushed by a drunken squirrel plotting world domination!!! Or something like that 😀
Seriously though, Sestak might have a decent shot at the seat, but I don’t know that I do trust Rasmussen’s favorability numbers (I just don’t buy that Sestak is known by nearly 80% of Pennsylvania voters).
That surprising to me. But I still question how much of this is just an anti-Specter vote. There’s going to be a sizable portion of PA Dems who won’t vote for Specter if there’s a credible Dem alternative in a primary and that group will coalesce very quickly around Sestak, but how much more can he get is my question.