The goals of this map were:
a)Shore up Stupak’s 1st
b)Create a Dem leaning 2nd using the Western Shore Counties and Grand Rapids
c)Pack as many GOPers into the 3rd and 4th CDs
d)Create a Democratic Lansing District and a Democratic Ann Arbor based district, destroying Thad McCotter’s 11th in the process
e)Dismember Candace Miller’s Northern Macomb base while drawing safe districts for Gary Peters and Sander Levin
f)Preserve 2 black majority districts.
Under my map, I think that:
CDs 1, 5, 8, 11, 12, 13, and 14 are mortal Dem locks
CDs 6, 7, 10 have strong Dem leans
CD 2 leans slight Dem, CD9 is a tossup
CDs 3 and 4 are Republican fortresses
Let me know how I did….
Here’s Stupak’s New 1st CD
Here’s the bulk of Western and Central Michigan:
The Kalamazoo/Battle Creek 6th and Lansing based 7th
Here’s the 9th, which I’m guessing is a tossup district, maybe with an ever so slight Democratic lean.
The new Ann Arbor based 8th and a Dingell friendly 14th:
Gary Peters’s 10th and Sander Levin’s new 11th
The two majority black districts, numbered 12 and 13:
would go Republican i’m sure. You’ve got the most Republican parts of Oakland, plus the Republican exurb counties of Lapeer and St. Clair, plus the Republican tilting thumb counties. And it looks like you’ve inadvertantly drawn Peters and Levin or Conyers and Levin into the same district, as Levin lives in Royal Oak, although I can’t quite tell where the southern part of the city is (where levin lives). If I were you i’d leave SE Oakland in Levin’s district, as it’s his base. And Upton would win the Kalamazoo-Battle Creek district. Good job dislodging McCotter and Protecting Stupak, and I like your new Grand Rapids, Muskegon district. Sorry if I sounded too critical.
First, could you throw up an image of the whole map, too? I just want to get a full picture without having to flip between images.
I see one issue to start with, which is that you’ve got Mark Schauer (D) and Fred Upton (R) in the same 6th District now. Adding Calhoun County to MI-06 makes it more Democratic, but now you’ve got Schauer up against someone who has a history with the bulk of the district’s voters. Schauer would have to fight to keep his job. I think he could do it, but it might cost us a lot.
I might have some other thoughts later.
Here’s my Michigan map, a little more conservative, but it does combine two Republican districts and makes Thad McCotter’s re-election chances much more in doubt.
MI-01 (dark blue) – Bart Stupak’s district, mostly unchanged, although I removed some of the Republican counties.
MI-02 (magenta, formerly MI-15) – John “Methuselah” Dingell gets a slightly-expanded suburban district, taking in Lenawee County now.
MI-03 (red, includes the former MI-02) – Created by combining MI-02 and MI-03, since Hoekstra is retiring. Won by Obama (I assume Grand Rapids voted more Democratic than Kent County as a whole), but Vern Ehlers would probably be re-elected.
MI-04 (dark green) – Dave Camp’s district. Safe Republican.
MI-05 (dark purple) – This is Dale Kildee’s district and remains a safe Dem district consisting of Saginaw, Flint, and some surrounding territory.
MI-06 (yellow) – Made more Republican for Fred Upton.
MI-07 (teal) – Made more Democratic for Mark Schauer by including Lansing and removing some more Republican portions.
MI-08 (grey) – Safe Republican seat for Mike Rogers.
MI-09 (light purple) – Joe Knollenberg’s district is more or less the same, taking in most of Oakland County.
MI-10 (brown) – Candice Miller’s district is more or less unchanged, except for picking up most of Tuscola County.
MI-11 (light blue) – How to get rid of Thad McCotter? Put Ann Arbor in his district! Yes, most of Washtenaw County, won 69-29 by Obama, is now in McCotter’s district.
MI-12 (light green) – Here we have Sander Levin, whose district I don’t think changed a whole lot.
MI-13 (very light purple) – Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick had to pull in some parts of Conyers’ district to remain majority black.
MI-14 (pink) – Conyers remains in majority-black territory as well.