Gubernatorial Cattle Call (July ’09)

We’ve never done one of these before – a gubernatorial cattle call. There just weren’t enough races last cycle. But this time, we’ve got a ton, and a very unsettled landscape given the huge number of open seats.

In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank the gov seats that are up in 2009 & 2010 in order of likelihood of flipping. (So this includes New Jersey and Virginia.) The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s gubernatorial race ratings. Have fun!

22 thoughts on “Gubernatorial Cattle Call (July ’09)”

  1. 1. Kansas

    2. Hawaii

    3. Oklahoma

    4. Tennesee

    5. California

    6. New York

    7. Pensylvania

    8. Wyoming

    9. Minnesota

    10.Florida

    11. Wisconsin

    12. Georgia

    13. Rhode Island

    14. Colorado

    15. Ohio

    16. Michigan

    17. Alaska

    18. New Mexico

    19. Alabama

    20. Iowa

    21. Illinois

    22. South Carolina

    23. Nevada

    24. Massachusetts

    25. Connecicut

    26. Arkansas

    27. Arizona

    28. Nebraska

    29. Texas

    30. Maine

    31. Vermont

    32. New Hampshire

    33. Utah

    34. Maryland

    35. Oregon

    36. South Dakota

    37. Idaho

  2. he’s running and it doesnt look likely that Cuomo will get in. I also think Giuliani is more likely to get in than he was b4.  

  3. 1) Kansas – Sebelius built democrats a house of cards!

    2) Hawaii – Only reason Kansas is higher is the Rs actually have a candidate here

    3) Rhode Island – The GOP is not holding, just does the seat go D or I?

    4) Wyoming – Freudenthal needs to make his court filing soon for this to drop

    5) Tennessee – Slow Democratic erosion (check out the state legislature)

    6) Nevada – Fast Republican erosion, and governor 10%

    7) California – Newsom, Brown, whichever; both should beat the eBay lady

    8) Oklahoma – I maintain this is going to be the tightest gov race through e-day

    9) Minnesota – No T-Paw, but everyone else is running

    10) Arizona – Brunner seems to be doing a fine job of getting negative press, coming right back to team blue, the question is how many other offices we nab on the way.

    11) Florida – Sink’s behind now, but should be ahead by e-day

    12) Michigan – unpopular governor, highest national unemployment, even more unpopular republican party, let’s see how those balance out

    13) Georgia – This should also be very close on e-day

    14) Texas – Holding pattern until the candidates are actually running

    15) Pennsylvania – The Dems seem to be holding off on anything for now, come back in 2 months

    16) South Carolina – Thank you Sanford for breathing life into this state

    17) Alabama – Open seat, can Sparksmania overcome?

    18) Wisconsin – Let’s see if Doyle gets sucked into the Peace Corps before a call is made, the GOP opponents seem competent

    19) New York – Patterson will not be the Democratic nominee, even if he runs for it.

    20) Massachusetts – The Patrick campaign platform “My opponent is Romney all over again!”

    21) Maine – Baladacci is not popular, but he’s not running and there is no real visible candidates anywhere. Come back in 2 months

    22) Ohio – “Hi my name is John Kasich, and I like Free Trade!” See ya.

    23) Vermont – The dems MIGHT be waking up

    24) Alaska – Palin/No Palin. Either way the Rs seem to be in control.

    25) Iowa – The Rs are really going to turn this into a referendum on Gay Marriage?

    26) Oregon – If the Ds are looking at strong liberals, you know it’s locked down

    27) Illinois – Blago is gone, forever. Quinn is scaring off Madigan. It’s off the radar.

    28) South Dakota – No Herseth, no race.

    29) Colorado – Am I missing something here, or does McInnis just smell of desperation/old news/retread? Feels like the guy Udall beat and the guy Ritter beat in ’06. I cant tell the three apart.

    30) Maryland – Maybe Steele wants his old job back or a promotion?

    31) New Mexico – Solidified its status as a solid blue state in ’08

    32) Connecticut – Maybe someone will challenge Rell?

    33) Arkansas – What Arkansas state GOP?

    34) Nebraska – Dems are building a NE-2 farm team first

    35) New Hampshire – No liberal rebellion for signing gay marriage, no threat

    36) Idaho – It’s Idaho!

  4. D’s pick up 6 – HI, CA, NV, MN, FL, AZ.

    R’s pick up 4 – KS, WY, TN, OK.

    I’s pick up 1 – RI.

    30 D, 19R, 1I at the end of the day.  

    It is amazing how few safe incumbents there are. Certainly less than 10 out of 39 races.  Could be a real free for all.

    1. Kansas – No prominent Dem likely to step up.

    2. Rhode Island – Definitely a flip – possibly to Chafee (I), which would probably still be good news for D’s.

    3. Wyoming – Gonzo unless Freudenthal sues, which I doubt.

    4. Hawaii – Dkos poll shows Abercrombie/Mufi looking solid.

    5. California – Brown in a runaway.

    6. Tennessee – State seems to be slipping away from D’s.

    7. Oklahoma – Ditto.  Edmundson a strong candidate though.

    8. Nevada – Is Rory Reid the right candidate?  D bench is huge here.  Gibbons is toast, whether in primary or general.

    9. Minnesota – D lean, but Ramstad would be tough to beat.

    10. Florida – Sink has ability to win Southern D’s in Florida, which is huge.  She’s twangy!

    11. Arizona – Brewer not too popular, and may not even run.  Goddard would be tough to beat, and seems to be in.

    12. New Jersey – Corzine in deep s@#%.  I think he’ll win though.  Christie is too conservative for NJ.

    13. Georgia – Barnes a top-notch recruit.  I’m seeing a close race with Oxendine.

    14. Virginia – Deeds in a squeaker.  Deeds seems like the type of candidate who can win the Appalachian D’s and the blue areas of VA.

    15. Michigan – At the end of the day, Cherry holds on.

    16. Pennsylvania – I like Onorato here over Corbett.

    17. Wisconsin – Will Doyle vacate?  New D candidate would probably be just as good as the unpopular Doyle.

    18. Vermont – I love that some fairly big-time D’s have stepped up here.  Will Douglas run again?  Will the third party spoil the fun?  

    19. Alaska – I’m thinking Palin vacates.  Berkowitz puts up a tough fight, but maybe comes up a little short.

    20. Alabama – Davis romps in primary, but likely comes up a little short in the general.  Davis will vote with the Republicans on every bill until November 2010 and then fortunately he will no longer vote on any bills.

    21. Iowa – Culver mildly unpopular.  R’s need to find a better candidate than the ones who are in.

    22. Colorado – Ritter doing his best to lose his base with anti-union stances.  R’s need to do better than McInnis.

    23. New York – Paterson will lose – that is a given.  He must be beaten in a primary.  Where are you, Andrew Cuomo?

    24. South Carolina – Did Sanford damages R brand enough in SC?  Polling actually looks somewhat good for D’s here.

    25. Ohio – Strickland will probably be OK, although he is mildly unpopular just like practically every other governor.

    26. Massachusetts – Patrick has not earned a clear primary.  If he is the candidate, D’s will have to sweat it a little.

    27. Illinois – Quinn will be just fine if he is the nominee.  Madigan will clobber all comers 2-1 if she is.

    28. South Dakota – Only competitive if Herseth runs.

    29. Oregon – Love the D candidates here.  Prominent R’s seem likely to stay away.

    30. Maine – I like former AG Rowe to hold on to this seat.  Astonishing lack of big candidates on both sides.

    31. New Mexico – Polls show Denish romping biggest R’s.

    32. Connecticut – Rell has not announced her intentions.  She beats down if she runs.  I love the solid challengers lining up though.

    33. Maryland – D lean in MD is bigger than ever.  I’m thinking Ehrlich stays away.

    34. Texas – Competitive R primary.  Either R will beat down Schieffer.  Running a race against a big-time R in Texas is too expensive.  Focus will be on Senate seat.

    35. Utah – Hey, it’s Utah.  Matheson unlikely to take a chance on this race given safe house seat.

    36. Idaho – Otter has not confirmed candidacy yet, but I assume he will run and win.

    37. Arkansas – Beebe one of only a few truly safe incumbents.

    38. New Hampshire – Lynch a shoo-in.

    39. Nebraska – No sweat for Heineman.

  5. Almost garunteed party switch

    1. Kansas: No way no how

    2. Rhode Island: D or I

    3. Nevada: Republicans don’t seem to have a credible candidate for anything in this state

    ________________________________________________

    Probably a party switch but not a garuntee

    4. Tenessee: I don’t think either party have top tier recruits in this one so probably favors republicans.

    5. Oklahoma: I still think this one could fall to the tipping point mark but time will tell

    6. Minasota: I think republicans could field a good candidate but they will have a lot of work to do here.

    _____________________________________________________

    Close Race

    7. New Jersey: probably a republican pickut but still will be pretty close

    8. Wyoming: a special case, will either go to the top or bottom of the list depending on what Freudenthal decides to do.

    9. Michigan: Bad economy will make this race interesting.  If the economy gets better I think this race could fall.

    10. Florida: a close race but if democrats put money on this race it should go up on the list.  I want to see fundraising numbers for Sink and her oponent to see wehre this one goes.

    11. California: Meg Whittman is raising a ton of money and the dems on this ticket are both lacking but California is pretty blue and Aarnold is not helping the GOP.  But Money is the great equalizer.

    12. Virginia: I think this one is about as close to a coint toss as you can get.  I think Deeds will pull it out but that is only based on hunch.

    _______________________________________________________

    Races that could be interesting but probably won’t be

    13. Arizona: Jan Brewer hasn’t had a great showing so far so this could hurt her.  

    14. Georgia:  Dems have a great or horrible candidate.  We will see which one Barnes turns out to be

    15. Pennsylvania: Dem hold most likely

    16. Iowa: Bad numbers for Culver but I don’t think it will matter.

    17. Vermont: Hopefully Douglas will not run again.  But even if he does there are some good dems in the race.

    18. Wisconsin:  Bad numbers for Doyle but I doubt it will matter

    19. South Dakota:  This race will rise or fall on what the dem represenative decides to do.

    20. Texas: if Perry wins this race becomes a bit more interesting but still not much.  If KBH wins thenthe dems have zero shot.

    21. Utah: Herbert will probably not have Huntsman like aproval and if Mathison runs then this race goes up… if not then it goes down.

    I don’t see any of the other states being competative at this time.

  6. 1. Kansas–without Parkinson, Brownback has a lock

    2. Rhode Island–blue state, though Chafee may pull it out

    3. Tennessee–red flip, but who will win not clear yet

    4. Wyoming–unless Freudenthal runs, this one is gone

    5. Hawaii–either Abercrombie or Mufi will beat the Duke

    6. California–Rep money can’t pull this one out

    7. Oklahoma–good Dem candidates, but state too red

    8. Minnesota–will be some rebound from T-Paw and Norm

    9. Florida–Alex Sink is a solid candidate

    10. Virginia–this one is a true tossup

    11. Nevada–who knows what will happen here

    12. New Jersey–Corzine may prevail, but it will be close

    13. Pennsylvania–depends on who runs

    14. Michigan–another tossup, but I think Cherry may be OK

    15. Arizona–if Terry Goddard gets in, this could flip

    16. Alabama–good Dem candidates, but tough state

    17. Georgia–Roy Barnes gives us legitimacy if he runs

    18. South Dakota–only if Stephanie gets in

    19. Texas–if KBH and Perry beat each other up enough

    20. Oregon–Dem candidate probably OK

    21. Wisconsin–Doyle should pull this out

    22. Colorado–Ritter probably OK, weak Rep bench

    23. New York–if Cuomo stays out, could be close

    24. Iowa–Culver should be OK

    25. Illinois–either Quinn or Madigan should prevail

    The other fourteen races have little or no likelihood of flipping.

  7. Tier 1: Likely Takeover

    1. Wyoming (no Dem bench)

    2. Kansas (strong GOP, no strong Dem)

    3. Hawaii (decent GOP and strong Dem but very blue)

    4. Rhode Island (switch from GOP to Independent with Chafee)

    5. Nevada (with Gibbons, slightly lower without)

    6. California

    7. Oklahoma (strong GOP and Dem but very red)

    8. Minnesota

    9. Tennessee

    Tier 2: Toss-Up

    10. New Jersey

    11. Florida

    12. Virginia

    13. Michigan

    Tier 3: Likely Retention

    14. Alabama (strong Dems)

    15. Arizona

    16. Wisconsin

    17. Pennsylvania

    18. Georgia

    19. South Carolina

    20. Texas

    21. Iowa

    22. Ohio

    23. Massachusetts

    Watch list:

    * South Dakota (Tier 1 with Herseth)

    * New York (Tier 2 if Cuomo does not challenge Paterson)

    * Alaska (Tier 3 without Palin)

  8. Kansas

    Oklahoma

    New Jersey

    Hawaii

    Tennessee

    California

    Nevada

    Florida  

    Rhode Island

    Michigan

    Colorado

    Iowa  

    Massachusetts

    Virginia

    Pennsylvania

    New York

    Wisconsin

    Georgia

    Wyoming

    Ohio

    Minnesota

    Arizona

    South Carolina

    Illinois

    Alabama

    Texas

    Maine

    Vermont

    Oregon

    South Dakota

    Alaska

    New Mexico

    New Hampshire

    Nebraska

    Maryland

    Connecticut

    Arkansas

    Utah

    Idaho

  9. With the list broken down into subsections:

    Likely to flip:

    1) Rhode Island

    2) Kansas

    3) Oklahoma

    4) Wyoming (if term limited)

    5) Hawaii

    6) New Jersey

    7) Minnesota

    8) Nevada

    9) Tennessee

    10) California

    Toss Ups:

    11) Virginia

    12) Pennsylvania

    13) Florida

    14) Michigan

    15) Arizona

    16) Colorado

    17) Wisconsin

    Lean Retention

    18) Georgia

    19) Ohio

    20) New York

    21) Vermont

    22) Massachusetts

    23) Alabama

    24) Iowa

    Safe seats

    25) Texas

    26) South Carolina

    27) Oregon

    28) Maine

    29) Alaska

    30) Illinois

    31) New Mexico

    32) Maryland

    33) Arkansas

    34) Idaho

    35) Utah

    36) Connecicutt

    37) South Dakota

    38) New Hampshire

    39) Idaho

    40) Nebraska

     

  10. Almost certain to switch

    _______________________

    1. Rhode Island (R to D or I)

    2. Kansas (D to R)

    Likely to  switch

    _________________

    3. Hawaii  (R to D)

    4. Wyoming (D to R)

    Lean to switch

    ________________

    5. Oklahoma (D to R)

    6. Nevada  (R to D)

    7. Tennessee  (D to R)

    8. California (R to D)

    9. Minnesota (R to D)

    Toss-up

    ________________

    10. Michigan (D to ?)

    11. Virginia (D to ?))

    12. New Jersey (D to ?)

    13. Florida (R to ?)

    14. Arizona (R to ?)

    15. Vermont  (R to ?)

    Lean to retention

    ________________

    16. Georgia (R)

    17. Wisconsin (D)

    18. Ohio (D)

    19. Massachusetts (D)

    20. Pennsylvania  (D)

    21. Alabama (R)

    22. South Carolina (R)

    23. Texas (R)

    24. Maine (D)

    Likely retention

    ________________

    25. Oregon (D)

    26. New York (D)

    27. Colorado (D)

    28. Illinois (D)

    29. Iowa (D)

    30. Alaska (R)

    31. New Mexico (D)

    32. Connecticut (R)

    33.  Utah (R)

    34. South Dakota (R)

    Almost certain retention

    ________________

    35. Maryland (D)

    36. Arkansas (D)

    37. Idaho (R)

    38. New Hampshire (D)

    39. Nebraska (R)

  11. Utah… Needs an “*”  

    We need to qualify the likihood that this fella wont even make it thru their nominating process.

    Likewise with South Carolina

    I think we need to put up a Babka, everyone pick your date and time for Sanford’s resignation.  He’s twice been blessed with MJ’s passing and the holiday weekend to push himself off the news – is he finally learning to shut his mouth?

  12. unless the economy starts to recover, it’s going to be a bloodbath for governors. I think I have all of them in here:

    1. Kansas (open seat held by Mark Parkinson – D)

    2. Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal – D; assuming Freudenthal doesn’t overturn term limits)

    3. Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle – R)

    4. Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry – D)

    5. Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri – R; R to D or R to Chaffee – I)

    6. Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen – D)

    7. New Jersey (Jon Corzine – D)

    8. New York (David Paterson – D; if Paterson is the nominee)

    9. California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger – R)

    10. Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm – D)

    11. Minnesota (open seat held by Tim Pawlenty – R)

    12. Nevada (Jim Gibbons – R)

    13. Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell – D)

    14. Florida (open seat held by Charlie Crist – R)

    15. Arizona (Jan Brewer – R)

    16. Wisconsin (Jim Doyle – D)

    17. Virginia (open seat held by Tim Kaine – D)

    18. Maine (open seat held by John Baldacci – D)

    19. Massachusetts (Deval Patrick – D)

    20. Colorado (Bill Ritter – D)

    21. Ohio (Ted Strickland – D)

    22. Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue – R)

    23. Iowa (Chet Culver – D)

    24. Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski – D)

    25. South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds – R)

    26. Illinois (Pat Quinn – D)

    27. Maryland (Martin O’Malley – D)

    28. South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford – R)

    29. Alaska (Sarah Palin – R)

    30. Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley – R)

    31. Vermont (Jim Douglas – R)

    32. New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson – D)

    33. Connecticut (Jodi Rell – R)

    34. Idaho (Butch Otter – R)

    35. Texas (Rick Perry – R)

    36. Utah (Gary Herbert – R)

    37. Arkansas (Mike Beebe – D)

    38. New Hampshire (John Lynch – D)

    39. Nebraska (Dave Heineman – R)

  13. Near-definite takeover:

    1. Kansas – solidly Republican state.  

    2. Rhode Island – solidly Democratic state.  Carcieri was an anomaly.

    3. Hawaii – solidly Democratic state.  The real battle should be the Democratic primary.

    4. Nevada – Jim Gibbons has a 10% approval rating and the Republicans have no bench.  The Democrats should take this one easily.

    Probable takeover:

    5. Tennessee – I don’t doubt that the Republicans can win this increasingly Republican state.

    6. Oklahoma – I doubt the Democrats have much of a shot.

    7. Wyoming – Unless Freudenthal can run for a third term.

    8. Minnesota – Burnout from Pawlenty and the Coleman ordeal will cause this one to switch to Democratic.

    9. Northern Mariana Islands – Dissatisfaction with Fitial is rampant.  Will switch to Republican or Independent.

    10. California – Depends on whether Meg Whitman mounts a credible campaign.

    Toss-up:

    11. New Jersey – The Corzine administration is viewed in a very poor light.  The question is whether Chris Christie can pull off a win.

    12. Florida – A swing state with a governor who’s retiring to run for Senate.  Enough said.

    13. Virginia – Expect a razor-thin margin of victory here.

    14. Michigan – Normally blue Michigan may vote Republican if the economy stays terrible, as unemployment in Michigan skyrockets.

    15. Guam – Camacho is retiring and it’s difficult to say who will replace him. Expect fireworks.

    16. Georgia – Democrats will campaign hard if a big name runs.  

    17. Arizona – If Brewer seeks a full term, she’s in trouble.  If she retires, who knows?

    Probable retention:

    18. Wisconsin – Could be close but probably will be a Democratic hold.

    19. Vermont – Vermont is very liberal, but will the Democrats actually challenge Douglas vigorously?

    20. New York – Paterson will probably lose in the primary, but some strong Republicans are eyeing this race.  

    21. South Carolina – It all hinges on how Sanford’s scandal plays out.

    22. Colorado – Ritter isn’t especially popular but the Republican bench is weak.  

    23. Pennsylvania – Rendell is retiring and the Republicans are the offensive.  

    24. Texas – Texas is very Republican but it’s too soon to tell.

    25. Alaska – Depends on whether Palin runs again.

    26. Alabama – Artur Davis will charge hard to win this open seat, but might fall short yet.

    27. Iowa – Probably a Democratic hold, but it all depends on the Republican nominee.

    28. Ohio – Strickland should be fairly safe.  

    29. Maine – It’s a blue state, but there are basically no candidates yet.

    30. South Dakota – Only a couple of Democrats could win this race…you know who I’m talking about.  (No, not George McGovern!)

    31. Massachusetts – Although Massachusetts is about as liberal is you can get, Patrick isn’t very popular.  

    Near-definite retention:

    32. Connecticut – Democrats will be focusing on holding on to the embattled Chris Dodd’s Senate seat, not challenging a popular moderate Republican governor.  

    33. Oregon – Expect an easy Democratic hold.

    34. Illinois – Republicans will be focusing on the Senate race, especially if Mark Kirk runs.  Whether the nominee is Quinn or Madigan, the Democrats are safe.  

    35. Utah – The real contest is in the Republican primary.

    36. New Mexico – Lt. Gov. Denish will win in a landslide.

    37. Maryland – A major Republican challenger is unlikely.  

    38. Arkansas – Considering there’s no Republican bench in Arkansas, I think the Democrats will roll in 2010.

    39. New Hampshire – Lynch will cruise to a fourth term in liberal New Hampshire.

    40. Nebraska – Don’t expect Nebraska to elect a Democratic governor in 2010 or any time in the near future.

    41. Idaho – Obviously a Republican hold.

    42. U.S. Virgin Islands – No, really, there is a Republican Party in the USVI!  They just don’t hold any elective offices….

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