Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
PC Load Letter? What the fuck is that?
104 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Heard a rumor this week that Tom Harkin does not plan to seek a sixth term, and Congressman Bruce Braley (IA-01) is being groomed to run for Senate in 2014. Braley has been doing occasional events in central Iowa for some time, so it’s an open secret that he’s been thinking about running for some statewide office some day. He’s highly effective and articulate, and it won’t hurt that he was a key sponsor of the popular “Cash for Clunkers” program.
The downside is that Braley is a rising star in the House, and it would be a shame to lose his position on the Energy and Commerce Committee. (He got that seat after whipping for Henry Waxman in last November’s leadership challenge against John Dingell.)
The off-year caucuses in January 2010 will take place on a Saturday afternoon for the first time, Iowa’s Democratic and Republican parties jointly announced this week. Both parties allow members of the public to submit platform resolutions at precinct caucuses, but on the Republican side the 2010 caucuses could be more important. Those precincts will elect delegates to county conventions, which will elect delegates to district conventions, which will elect delegates to the state convention. If no GOP gubernatorial candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June 2010 primary, the nominee will be decided at a state convention.
Democrats really need to find a new candidate in Iowa House district 21 (Waterloo area, Black Hawk County). Our first-term incumbent got pulled over for drunk driving in February and tried to get out of being arrested by telling the cop he’d been drinking with the governor that evening. Also, the same incumbent gave a false address several years in a row to send his kids to a special school without paying tuition.
Tom Harkin is headlining a fundraiser for Curt Hanson, Democratic candidate for the special election in Iowa House district 90 on September 1 (Van Buren County and parts of Wapello and Jefferson Counties, including the Fairfield area). I am a little concerned about this race because the Republicans have a lot of angry enthusiasm surrounding the gay marriage issue, and in a low-turnout special election environment, we could be in trouble. Dems supposedly have a slight registration edge in the district, but it’s not the most liberal part of the state. I expect organized labor to get involved to help Hanson. The right-wing group Iowans for Tax Relief is basically running the Republican candidate’s operation.
I would consider both of these districts important holds. Democrats hold a 56-44 majority in the Iowa House, but a half-dozen of those Democrats were unreliable votes on key issues. Our incumbents in districts 21 and 90 were reliable on those issues, so if we lose one or both of these seats we are that much further from having 51 votes to do good things.
Mary Landrieu. Many people close to her say she may be leaning against a run. If she doesnt run:
Republican candidates- LA-01 Rep. Steve Scalise ( I guess all the GOP reps, if they keep gettin re-elected) SoS Jay Dardenne, Treasurer John Kennedy, AG Commisioner Mike Strain, and, of course, Governor Jindal
Democrats- Mitch Landrieu, any Democratic US Reps, next NO mayor (unless John Georges wins)
And then, Governor, according to her husband, Blanco is considering running for Gov again in 2011. If she does (or doesn’t) lets see what Dems. there are-
LT. Mitch Landrieu, Attorney General Charles Foti, Charlie Melanon (if he loses against Vitter), House Speaker Pro Tem Karen Carter Peterson, who is well known from her challenge to Bill Jefferson in 2006 and in the news alot because of her leadership position. There are also more potential candidates, but I think these are the most likely, unless Boasso wants a re-match
Like Daley in Chicago or Norcross in New Jersey. Anyone want to join in on this? Any suggestions for a location?
I’m pretty sure the Republicans will not hang onto the governorship. But is it Lincoln Chafee’s to lose? Or can the Democrats win this after 20 years of being out of power?
At a recent town hall meeting, a man stood up and told Representative Bob Inglis to “keep your government hands off my Medicare.” The congressman, a Republican from South Carolina, tried to explain that Medicare is already a government program – but the voter, Mr. Inglis said, “wasn’t having any of it.”
You know the base is going off the deep end when one of their congresscritters reminds them of reality…and then they reject it.
In other news, that’s a really nice commentary article on the health-care issue.
I have been reading this site for a long time, but I just created an account to tell the poster of this site that they messed that quote up. I cannot believe it. It goes:
“PC Load Letter, What the Fuck Does That Mean?!”
Well, at least it got me to create an account.
Any chance we could get a list of fundraising totals in the governor’s races? It’d be harder to compile since it would have to be culled from state campaign finance websites, but I’m sure the SSP brain trust could pull it together pretty quickly.
So New York is down to 3 Republican seats (Peter King and freshman Chris Lee, plus the soon-to-be Army Sec. McHugh), and Republicans manage to nominate a politically experienced, centrist woman who seems to have a solid record on abortion and gay rights in Dede Scozzafava. If I could vote there, I, as a centre-left Dem, would vote for her. Mostly just to annoy the regional rump of Republicans in the South.
In CA-10 to replace the retiring center-left Ellen Tauscher, I am proud to announce that Anthony Woods is my new boyfriend. And with 3 establishment candidates to split the vote, he may just have a chance as an outsider…
And inevitably, the press will portray both as referendums on Obama, even when both of them aren’t… at all. Like most Congressional seats these days, they have much more to do with local conditions than national ones.
that I doubt anyone will know, but if anyone would, it’s someone here at SSP. Does anyone know anything about Grant County, North Dakota (popu. 2,841)? The reason I ask is because I was sorting through some 2008 presidential data (yeah, I have some real exciting Saturday nights sometimes) and it’s by far, of all the nation’s counties, the one with the biggest share of third-party votes: 35% (to 21% for Obama and 44% for McCain). The nearest runner-up is only at 7%. Bob Barr beat Obama, at 22%, and there was another 11% for Charles Baldwin of the Constitution Party. Is there a big right-wing militia enclave here, or what? (This seems especially weird because in 2004, the third-party share here was only 2%.)
said that his state in not in the economic toilet as NY, CA etc.
This is just southern propaganda similar to the hyped chivalry that let them practice segregation for generations. The post above them went somewhere else and so I to write separately.
1. Jefferson county in Alabama is bankrupt. No services. This includes Birmingham. The city may not be bakrupt. The county is. To check this just google “Jefferson County” and check the news.
2. Alabma (and 9 more southern states) are the 10 worst states in helthcare.
3. For every dollar NY and CA send to the federal governmant, they get a smaller fraction back. The southern states have been geting more than what they send back to the federal government for at least 25 years. If NY and CA (or NJ) received the same kind of treatment, they would not be in an economic hole.
Carolyn Maloney’s antics are getting a bit long in the tooth. But empusas are known to have long and sharp teeth and claws. So this does not suprise me.
Here’s a Daily Kos diary some of you will find interesting:
My brief take: The Democratic primary seems to have already degenerated into personal attacks and inane and irrelevant debates about whether people should apologize for using colorful language to describe themselves.
Admittedly, I haven’t listened to the videos of each candidate’s entire speeches before posting this.
Quite long, detailed analysis. I could actually diary this, but it seems more appropriate for this open thread. I honestly didn’t read every word, but here’s somewhat of a taste:
Looking at the internals of the poll, Tinklenberg drew the support of 87 percent of self-identified Democratic respondents, 15 percent of self-identified Republicans, and 51 percent of self-identified independents. By comparison, Bachmann drew the support of 79 percent of self-identified Republicans, 8 percent of self-identified Democrats, and 35 percent of self-identified independent respondents. (Anderson was favored by 12 percent of independents, 4 percent of Republicans, and 3 percent of the Democratic respondents.)
The poll results suggest that for a Democrat to win in the 6th, that candidate has to retain the support of nearly 90 percent of Democratic voters, win more than 50 percent of the independent vote, and take around 15 percent of the Republican vote.
And at the end of the diary:
Up next: Part II — The Candidates
Those of you who really want to be involved with detailed analysis of this campaign will want to check back for that sequel.
Blanche Lincoln, versus the 8 members of the Republican Sandwich club and the Independent, former Green Beret Trevor Drown. It will be an interesting one.
Heard a rumor this week that Tom Harkin does not plan to seek a sixth term, and Congressman Bruce Braley (IA-01) is being groomed to run for Senate in 2014. Braley has been doing occasional events in central Iowa for some time, so it’s an open secret that he’s been thinking about running for some statewide office some day. He’s highly effective and articulate, and it won’t hurt that he was a key sponsor of the popular “Cash for Clunkers” program.
The downside is that Braley is a rising star in the House, and it would be a shame to lose his position on the Energy and Commerce Committee. (He got that seat after whipping for Henry Waxman in last November’s leadership challenge against John Dingell.)
The off-year caucuses in January 2010 will take place on a Saturday afternoon for the first time, Iowa’s Democratic and Republican parties jointly announced this week. Both parties allow members of the public to submit platform resolutions at precinct caucuses, but on the Republican side the 2010 caucuses could be more important. Those precincts will elect delegates to county conventions, which will elect delegates to district conventions, which will elect delegates to the state convention. If no GOP gubernatorial candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June 2010 primary, the nominee will be decided at a state convention.
It’s not clear whether a Saturday would be considered for the 2012 precinct caucuses. I would like to see more substantial reforms to the caucus system than moving the date.
Democrats really need to find a new candidate in Iowa House district 21 (Waterloo area, Black Hawk County). Our first-term incumbent got pulled over for drunk driving in February and tried to get out of being arrested by telling the cop he’d been drinking with the governor that evening. Also, the same incumbent gave a false address several years in a row to send his kids to a special school without paying tuition.
Tom Harkin is headlining a fundraiser for Curt Hanson, Democratic candidate for the special election in Iowa House district 90 on September 1 (Van Buren County and parts of Wapello and Jefferson Counties, including the Fairfield area). I am a little concerned about this race because the Republicans have a lot of angry enthusiasm surrounding the gay marriage issue, and in a low-turnout special election environment, we could be in trouble. Dems supposedly have a slight registration edge in the district, but it’s not the most liberal part of the state. I expect organized labor to get involved to help Hanson. The right-wing group Iowans for Tax Relief is basically running the Republican candidate’s operation.
I would consider both of these districts important holds. Democrats hold a 56-44 majority in the Iowa House, but a half-dozen of those Democrats were unreliable votes on key issues. Our incumbents in districts 21 and 90 were reliable on those issues, so if we lose one or both of these seats we are that much further from having 51 votes to do good things.
Mary Landrieu. Many people close to her say she may be leaning against a run. If she doesnt run:
Republican candidates- LA-01 Rep. Steve Scalise ( I guess all the GOP reps, if they keep gettin re-elected) SoS Jay Dardenne, Treasurer John Kennedy, AG Commisioner Mike Strain, and, of course, Governor Jindal
Democrats- Mitch Landrieu, any Democratic US Reps, next NO mayor (unless John Georges wins)
And then, Governor, according to her husband, Blanco is considering running for Gov again in 2011. If she does (or doesn’t) lets see what Dems. there are-
LT. Mitch Landrieu, Attorney General Charles Foti, Charlie Melanon (if he loses against Vitter), House Speaker Pro Tem Karen Carter Peterson, who is well known from her challenge to Bill Jefferson in 2006 and in the news alot because of her leadership position. There are also more potential candidates, but I think these are the most likely, unless Boasso wants a re-match
Like Daley in Chicago or Norcross in New Jersey. Anyone want to join in on this? Any suggestions for a location?
I’m pretty sure the Republicans will not hang onto the governorship. But is it Lincoln Chafee’s to lose? Or can the Democrats win this after 20 years of being out of power?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07…
You know the base is going off the deep end when one of their congresscritters reminds them of reality…and then they reject it.
In other news, that’s a really nice commentary article on the health-care issue.
I have been reading this site for a long time, but I just created an account to tell the poster of this site that they messed that quote up. I cannot believe it. It goes:
“PC Load Letter, What the Fuck Does That Mean?!”
Well, at least it got me to create an account.
Any chance we could get a list of fundraising totals in the governor’s races? It’d be harder to compile since it would have to be culled from state campaign finance websites, but I’m sure the SSP brain trust could pull it together pretty quickly.
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
Is going strong and picking up mo.
Grayson leads in a couple of internal polls, although old, from the Crotty campaign and his own. This is likely to be our toughest hold in Florida.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.c…
Special elections in two of the big states…
So New York is down to 3 Republican seats (Peter King and freshman Chris Lee, plus the soon-to-be Army Sec. McHugh), and Republicans manage to nominate a politically experienced, centrist woman who seems to have a solid record on abortion and gay rights in Dede Scozzafava. If I could vote there, I, as a centre-left Dem, would vote for her. Mostly just to annoy the regional rump of Republicans in the South.
In CA-10 to replace the retiring center-left Ellen Tauscher, I am proud to announce that Anthony Woods is my new boyfriend. And with 3 establishment candidates to split the vote, he may just have a chance as an outsider…
And inevitably, the press will portray both as referendums on Obama, even when both of them aren’t… at all. Like most Congressional seats these days, they have much more to do with local conditions than national ones.
that I doubt anyone will know, but if anyone would, it’s someone here at SSP. Does anyone know anything about Grant County, North Dakota (popu. 2,841)? The reason I ask is because I was sorting through some 2008 presidential data (yeah, I have some real exciting Saturday nights sometimes) and it’s by far, of all the nation’s counties, the one with the biggest share of third-party votes: 35% (to 21% for Obama and 44% for McCain). The nearest runner-up is only at 7%. Bob Barr beat Obama, at 22%, and there was another 11% for Charles Baldwin of the Constitution Party. Is there a big right-wing militia enclave here, or what? (This seems especially weird because in 2004, the third-party share here was only 2%.)
said that his state in not in the economic toilet as NY, CA etc.
This is just southern propaganda similar to the hyped chivalry that let them practice segregation for generations. The post above them went somewhere else and so I to write separately.
1. Jefferson county in Alabama is bankrupt. No services. This includes Birmingham. The city may not be bakrupt. The county is. To check this just google “Jefferson County” and check the news.
2. Alabma (and 9 more southern states) are the 10 worst states in helthcare.
3. For every dollar NY and CA send to the federal governmant, they get a smaller fraction back. The southern states have been geting more than what they send back to the federal government for at least 25 years. If NY and CA (or NJ) received the same kind of treatment, they would not be in an economic hole.
Carolyn Maloney’s antics are getting a bit long in the tooth. But empusas are known to have long and sharp teeth and claws. So this does not suprise me.
Here’s a Daily Kos diary some of you will find interesting:
KY-Sen: Democratic Race Sizzles in Fancy Farm
My brief take: The Democratic primary seems to have already degenerated into personal attacks and inane and irrelevant debates about whether people should apologize for using colorful language to describe themselves.
Admittedly, I haven’t listened to the videos of each candidate’s entire speeches before posting this.
“Can a Democrat Beat Michele Bachmann?”
Quite long, detailed analysis. I could actually diary this, but it seems more appropriate for this open thread. I honestly didn’t read every word, but here’s somewhat of a taste:
And at the end of the diary:
Those of you who really want to be involved with detailed analysis of this campaign will want to check back for that sequel.
Blanche Lincoln, versus the 8 members of the Republican Sandwich club and the Independent, former Green Beret Trevor Drown. It will be an interesting one.