It looks like pesky GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi is about to face his most legit challenger in years. From the Columbus Dispatch:
Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks said today she will challenge Rep. Pat Tiberi of Genoa Township in next year’s congressional election.
Brooks’ decision to run for Congress sets up what could be the toughest race Tiberi has faced since his 2000 election in the 12th Congressional District. Brooks, 56, has twice won voter approval across Franklin County, including an easy re-election last year.
In a Dispatch telephone interview today, Brooks said she has a “burning desire” to get the country “through these tough times. Frankly, people in the district say they are disappointed in the current member and they want a fresh approach to tackling these tough problems.”
Brooks said that Gov. Ted Strickland and Mayor Michael B. Coleman have both pledged to support her effort to unseat Tiberi. She said the major issues would be “jobs, health care, and our military families and security.”
Brooks, as you may recall, briefly ran for Franklin County’s other congressional seat (OH-15) last cycle, before deferring to Mary Jo Kilroy. Now she’s back for a crack at the 12th, a district that was hand-carved for the GOP during redistricting, but has since shifted in the Dem direction. Bush won this CD by 52-46 in 2000, but that margin tightened to 51-49 four years later. Obama finally blew the doors open last year, by winning the district by a 53-46 spread according to SSP’s analysis of the precinct returns.
However, Tiberi has been a tough candidate to beat; octogenarian and ex-Rep. Bob Shamansky put up a valiant effort in 2006, but Tiberi smashed the old man with a 16-point romp. Even as Obama turned this district blue last year, Tiberi cruised to a 55-42 victory over underfunded Democrat Mike Robinson. Still, Brooks will definitely bring a stronger profile to this race than either Shamansky or Robinson could offer. Her most glaring weakness? She lives just “eight minutes” outside of the 12th CD’s border.
RaceTracker Wiki: OH-12
But shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Now we someone for McCotter.
My guess is that he’ll hang on in 2010, and then there will be an incumbent protection deal to give both Tiberi and Zack Space safe districts for 2012.
This is very good news. OH-12 is a district that’s moved quite a bit toward the Democrats in recent years, and now stands about even in the PVI. Obama’s 7-point win here, coupled with Tiberi not being able to crack 60% against underfunded/over the hill opponents means this is a great pickup opportunity for us, probably our best in Ohio. I know OH-2 (Schmidt vs Book) is out there, but that’s a very conservative (R+13) district.
The Democrats’ growing strength in Columbus is a definite plus. In a dream world, Columbus would be just as liberal a city as Cleveland, making a Republican victory in Ohio extremely difficult. Maybe someday we’ll see that. FWIW, Obama won Franklin County (Columbus) by 19% in 2008, compared with Gore’s 2% in 2000 and Kerry’s 9% in 2004. That’s half of his margin in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), where he triumphed by 38%.
If the best case scenario plays out, and we pick up OH-2 and OH-12, without losing either OH-1 (Driehaus vs Chabot) or OH-15 (Kilroy vs TBA), it’s going to be interesting to see how redistricting plays out. Who would we protect and who would we leave in conservative districts?
Yes, residency is an issue but Boccieri was able to overcome it and she can as well.
I expect Brooks to be an EXCELLENT candidate who will help to keep the GOP congressional campaign in Ohio pinned down on too many fronts for them to hold their own, much less make any inroads. Since she has Ted’s support, she should have good fund raising and logistical support right from jump. The D Triple C will LOVE it (and I assume that they are involved.)
This automatically qualifies as an important race to watch.
A total of 22 vulnerable Republicans are listed. I can make a case for 17 more seats.
NY-23 Currently held by John McHugh and up for a special. This is up mear the top of the list. Even if we lose the special, it would be on a list.
NY-3 If Peter King runs for the US Senate this is a good shot.
NJ-2 If Jeff Drew runs for us, we have a shot at Frank LoBiondo. Otherwise, fuhgettaboutit.
NJ-7 Definite long shot. Should have won in 2008, nearly a win in 2006.
IL-6 Roskam is not listed as aiming for a state-wide race but if he throws his hat into either the Senator or Governor races, this is a pretty good chance.
IL-13 I am surprised Judy Biggert is running for re-election. She eked out a win in 2008 and is into her 70s. We’d do better against her than for an open seat, I think.
VA-10 Frank Wolf is also in his 70s and got a tough race in 2006 against Hudy Felder and an easier rematch in 2008.
NC-10 Patrick McHenry. The man is itching for a scandal. He cares little for the district. He’s flamboyantly gay (although not out). A good candidate with local roots would take the obnoxious McHenry out once and for all.
SC-1 Close in 2008. Could be a bruising primary fight between incumbent Brown and legacy Campbell. If it gets nasty, our chances increase.
FL-16 Will Rooney avoid scandal?
AL-3 Rogers-Segall rematch of surprisingly close 2008 race.
IA-4 Latham is a fine candidate but he got a minor scare in 2006 before breezing in 2008. The district results at the Presidential level say this should be in play and so do the 2006 results.
LA-4 Close race for an open seat in 2008. Throw the bums out mood would help us in LA.
LA-6 Don Cazyayoux won the special but lost the general. It is a Cassidy-Cazyayoux rematch.
TX-10 McCaul got a nice race in 2008 from Larry Joe Doherty.
AZ-3 Shadegg In and out in the past may make him more vulnerable. Considered a possible upset in 2008.
CA-4 Tom McClintock had one of the closest squeakers in 2008 for the Republicans.
No House Republican really has a national profile. I’d love for a Boehner to go down but I don’t see it. If I had to look for a 40th race, it would be MD-6. Roscoe Bartlett is in his 80s and has a mediocre war chest. He was held under 60% by a competent opponent. If he happens to make a gaffe, the age alone would tend to sink him.
Shelley Moore Capito got a stiff challenge and survived. The part of her district in the eastern panhandle is getting more diverse but most of the population for the district (which stretches all the way across West Virginia) is around Charleston in the west. Not a risk.
Scott Garrett may be the biggest jerk in the Northeast but his district seems to be getting safer. NJ-5 should have nudged down instead of going up a point as Dennis Shulman took it to Garrett with gusto. I’d love for this to be in play but my gut says no.