• CT-Sen: Here’s some good news for Chris Dodd (and also Kent Conrad, although he’s not facing any danger at home): the Senate Ethics Committee found that no Senate gift rules were broken by accepting VIP mortgages from Countrywide. Perception-wise, though, this is a case where the damage has probably already been done.
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio has issued some demands to Charlie Crist, regarding Mel Martinez’s now-vacant Senate seat: appoint someone conservative, and appoint an “interim” senator (i.e. not Crist). TPM also cites NRO’s Jim Geraghty as hearing rumors that the pick may be former Republican Gov. Bob Martinez (no relation to Mel), a conservative (although registered as a Democrat when nonpartisan mayor of Tampa) who served one term, 1986-1990. Bob Martinez is 74, and of Spanish ancestry rather than Cuban.
• IL-Gov: It still seems like a strange choice to me, but Comptroller Dan Hynes (runner-up to some guy named Barack Obama in the 2004 Democratic Senate primary) made it official yesterday. He’ll be running in the primary against incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, who’s been sporting surprisingly good approval ratings (by virtue of not being Rod Blagojevich, I suppose) and already managed to deter the much stronger Lisa Madigan from a primary fight. The primary is a ridiculously-early Feb. 2.
• NJ-Gov: One more poll in the New Jersey governor’s race came out yesterday, painting a worse picture than yesterday’s not-terrible R2K. Rasmussen finds a 13-point spread, 50-37, for Chris Christie over Jon Corzine. That’s right in line with Pollster.com’s rolling average, which is 50-38 today.
• UT-Gov: Utah Governor Jon Huntsman was confirmed as ambassador to China today, to no one’s surprise. Once he resigns, Republican Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert will be promoted but will face a special election in 2010.
• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds has taken on some criticism in recent weeks in the wake of flagging polls, for ignoring northern Virginia and focusing on his white rural base too much. He seems to be remedying that with his newest wave of radio ads, targeting Hispanic and black voters. On top of that, of course, was yesterday’s appearance with Barack Obama in McLean in NoVa.
• CA-47: Republican Assemblyman Van Tran, who’s running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th, got some bad PR last night. Tran was disruptive enough at the scene of a drunk-driving accident involving Westminster city councilor Andy Quach that he was threatened with arrest unless he returned to his car. (Tran was apparently called to the scene to act as Quach’s attorney, rather than a passenger.)
• IL-10: State Rep. Julie Hamos got a boost in her quest to win the Democratic primary in the open-seat battle to replace Rep. Mark Kirk. Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who represents the next-door 9th, endorsed Hamos, the first high-profile endorsement in the race.
• SC-04: Republican Rep. Bob Inglis laid down the law at his town hall the other night, telling Screamers at the event to turn off the Glenn Beck and tune out the fear-mongering. One more clue that the increasingly-sane Inglis, who’s facing several high-profile primary challengers (most notably state Sen. David Thomas) in a dark-red district, is becoming the 2010 cycle’s likeliest GOP primary casualty.
Inglis looks like a dead man walking. He’s got five (!) opponents already, and two of them look viable, Thomas and a prosecutor named Trey Gowdy, who’s raised $88k so far (compared to Inglis’s $130k, although Inglis has $180k on hand). If either force him into a runoff, it doesn’t seem likely that he’d survive.
This is just my view from Florida, as I’ve followed Perriello closely since he’s a fairly progressive Democrat from a somewhat conservative, although traditionally Democratic, district.
Perriello is doing town halls I believe in all counties of the 5th district over the recess, as well as other outreach events, including volunteering for Habitat for Humanity. He seems to be doing more town halls than any other Congress member from looking at schedules and news reports and has even avoided the rioting rallies that other members have faced. He similarly campaigned all over the district, including opening offices in all the counties, in the 2008 campaign, which I think helped him get elected. I actually think he will get re-elected, even with many progressive votes, especially the energy bill, that he has been taking in Congress, as he has a good real-populist appeal with actual votes and a campaign finance stance (rejection of PAC money) to stand up for it.
On the other hand, Glenn Nye might have more trouble, especially with that recent controversy about being for and against the energy bill and the final vote against it. I’m not sure if Nye’s district is as traditionally Democratic either, although he does have the military appeal and his young age would certainly benefit his district down the road.
I would be interested in hearing what Virginians think about the re-election prospects of the two first-term incumbents.
Why is Rubio in a position to make demands on Governor Crist? He is way behind in the polls. Posturing much?
Hynes has wanted to move up for awhile; in the two races he seemed to want a little more (SEN in 2004, AG in this year), he unfortunately ended up in line behind forces of nature (Obama, Madigan). I dunno why he didn’t try for Senate again, but if he wants a promotion, this isn’t awful; he’s well liked, he’s creaming Quinn in the money race, and he’s very, very, very boring- which IL voters might really, REALLY like after the all-drama, all-the-time of the Blago years.
While I have the utmost respect for Jan Schakowsky, her district does not need two representatives while the Tenth has none. Today she endorsed her neighbor from Evanston, Julie Hamos, one of the two candidates from the Ninth District running for the Tenth District seat.
Both Julie Hamos and Dan Seals live in the Ninth District. Isn’t there anyone worthy from the Tenth to represent it?
There is no reason we should be in this situation in a state like Connecticut. Rob Simmons is a vanquished old fossil that John Cornyn was able to resurrect for this race with the promise of heavy NRSC involvement. We cannot give the GOP the satisfaction of taking this seat.
State Rep. Bobby Reese. He’s a carpetbagging wingut:
http://www.gwinnettdailypost.c…