2010 House race ratings

I would like to start monitoring House races for 2010 and come up with a ratings system.  I will rate the most competitive races from each side and call them either “Lean” towards the party of “tossup”, meaning that either party can win.  

Here is my list:

Lean GOP(Dem Held):

PA-07(Open, Sestak)

MD-01(Kravotil)

ID-01(Minnick)

Tossup(Dem Held):

AL-02(Bright)

FL-08(Grayson)

MS-01(Childers)

NH-02(Open, Hodes)

NM-02(Teague)

OH-01(Driehaus)

Lean Dem(Dem Held):

CO-04(Markey)

FL-24(Kosmos)

IL-14(Foster)

MI-07(Schurer)

NY-29(Massa)

OH-15(Kilroy)

VA-05(Perriello)

NH-01(Shea-Porter)

Safe Dem(GOP held):

LA-02(Cao)

Lean Dem(GOP held):

PA-06(Gerlach, Open)

IL-10(Kirk, Open)

Tossup(GOP held):

NY-23(McHugh, open)

Lean GOP(GOP held):

CA-03(Lundgren)

OH-12(Tiberi)

WA-08(Reichert)

NE-02(Terry)

MN-06(Bachmann)

Unfortunately, we have nowhere to go but down in the House.  We have pretty much picked up every possible GOP seat that can be taken and are defending a lot of very difficult seats that we have picked up over the last two cycles.  

Right now, we are looking at something like a 10 seat loss, that would put us at a 247-188 majority instead of 257-178.  Not too much of a dent.  However, it is still early and things could still happen that could severely alter the landscape.  

For example, will unemployment start falling rapidly and could we see a “V shaped” recovery?  Could unemployment keep going up, peaking right before the 2010 elections(the worst possible scenario)?  Could healthcare reform fail?  We dont know and probably wont for another year.