I would like to start monitoring House races for 2010 and come up with a ratings system. I will rate the most competitive races from each side and call them either “Lean” towards the party of “tossup”, meaning that either party can win.
Here is my list:
Lean GOP(Dem Held):
PA-07(Open, Sestak)
MD-01(Kravotil)
ID-01(Minnick)
Tossup(Dem Held):
AL-02(Bright)
FL-08(Grayson)
MS-01(Childers)
NH-02(Open, Hodes)
NM-02(Teague)
OH-01(Driehaus)
Lean Dem(Dem Held):
CO-04(Markey)
FL-24(Kosmos)
IL-14(Foster)
MI-07(Schurer)
NY-29(Massa)
OH-15(Kilroy)
VA-05(Perriello)
NH-01(Shea-Porter)
Safe Dem(GOP held):
LA-02(Cao)
Lean Dem(GOP held):
PA-06(Gerlach, Open)
IL-10(Kirk, Open)
Tossup(GOP held):
NY-23(McHugh, open)
Lean GOP(GOP held):
CA-03(Lundgren)
OH-12(Tiberi)
WA-08(Reichert)
NE-02(Terry)
MN-06(Bachmann)
Unfortunately, we have nowhere to go but down in the House. We have pretty much picked up every possible GOP seat that can be taken and are defending a lot of very difficult seats that we have picked up over the last two cycles.
Right now, we are looking at something like a 10 seat loss, that would put us at a 247-188 majority instead of 257-178. Not too much of a dent. However, it is still early and things could still happen that could severely alter the landscape.
For example, will unemployment start falling rapidly and could we see a “V shaped” recovery? Could unemployment keep going up, peaking right before the 2010 elections(the worst possible scenario)? Could healthcare reform fail? We dont know and probably wont for another year.