Public Policy Polling (8/4-10, registered voters, 7/10-12 in parens, March in parens for Marshall trend lines):
Cal Cunninghan (D): 28 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (40)Kenneth Lewis (D): 27 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (42)Elaine Marshall (D): 31 (35)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)Kevin Foy (D): 27
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Burr has got to be pleased that he’s expanding his lead against all comers, and even against the highly-vaunted candidacy of Generic Democrat, whom Burr now leads by 42-35, a distinct improvement from 40-38 last month. However, Burr still doesn’t have much to brag about, as his approval rating is a marginal 38-32, with a big 30% slice of electorate being “not sure”. Possible newcomer Kevin Foy, the mayor of Chapel Hill, isn’t bringing any noticeable strength to the table in his first appearance in PPP’s polling.
Tom Jensen gives his two cents:
Burr’s situation is pretty simple. If things continue to move in a Republican direction all the way to November 2010 none of the Democratic candidates are going to be strong enough to defeat him. But if the economy turns around and Barack Obama gets the credit for it, resulting in another Democratic year, Burr is probably not strong enough to get reelected. As a relatively anonymous Senator his fate is more than likely going to be determined by which way the wind is blowing. Unless it turns out to be a year where disgusted voters just turn out incumbents of both parties at a much higher rate than usual.
I find it hard to disagree.
RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen
I noticed that the Obama voters were significantly more undecided than the McCain voters. In addition, the conservative voters have pretty much made up their minds that they will vote again for Burr.
Burr has unfavorable ratings among Moderates (I think it was 30/35), and that’s not a good sign for re-election. Furthermore, the Democratic candidates are not high-profile and/or high-profile candidates. Very few of the electorate knows Cunningham. Foy has the same problem, plus he is the mayor of Chapel Hill, which will not help him out at all. As far as Marshall goes, she’s respected in North Carolina but she’s very low-profile for a Secretary of State whose had the job for close to 13 years.
The health care issue is probably helping Burr out at this time. Once legislation is passed and the truth comes out about what it entails, I imagine Burr will come back down to Earth.
Burr is still polling in the low 40s. He does not have a solid base of support locked down, not even close to it.
Even if the economy does get better and Obama does get credit for it. I don’t think were gonna have as good a Democratic year as we did in 2006 or 2008. Besides which the democratic bench is kind of light here.
Without Cooper this will be a tough seat to win. Marshall might be able to, but it will be a real long shot.
are on our side, cause this seat always switches parties and Elaine Marshall is the best one to do it (after Roy Cooper). She was winning statewide elections in North Carolina way before the state was even competitive at a presidential level. I think that 2010 will be another good year for dems and I expect pickups in North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Kentucky.
From the News-Observer:
If Marshall is such a fantastic candidate, how did she get rolled by a loser like Erskine Bowles and some state senator? How can we expect her to beat Burr if she failed so miserably in her own party’s primary?
In November of 2009 is the election for the mayor of Charlotte. It is an open race because 7 term incumbent mayor Pat McCrory is retiring. Last year Pat McCrory was defeated in his bid to become governor of North Carolina by Bev Perdue by a margin of around 3.5%. However, one significant thing about this race is that Bev Perdue barley carried Mecklenburg county which contains Charlotte. For the democrats, city council member Anthony Foxx is running hoping to become the first African American mayor of Charlotte. For the republicans, city council member John Lassiter is running. PPP is releasing their first poll on this election monday. According to PPP’s twitter page the race is neck and neck but McCrory is still very popular. One other thing that they said was that democrats who approve of Pat McCrory, Anthony Foxx leads 59% to 30%. The results of this race will give us a better idea of the current political climate in Charlotte and thus the 2010 senate race.
is the latest rumored candidate being recruited by the DSCC for NC-Sen vs. Burr. Wicker served 2 terms as Lt. Governor under Gov. Jim Hunt, and lost to Mike Easley in the Democratic primary for Governor in 2000. Wicker, 57, had served 6 terms in the state House before being Lt Gov.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
Wicker has won statewide races twice – in 1992 and 1996. He has raised a lot of money in th past, but has been out of the political limelight for almost a decade.
http://www.newsobserver.com/po…