IA-Sen: Grassley Vulnerable?

As we all know, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley has been cozying up to the teabagger crowd and saying some truly bizarre things of late (though for the record, I do not believe he has dementia). Those comments could make Grassley vulnerable in a state which Barack Obama carried by 10 percent of the vote. Grassley was only leading former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack by four points a few months ago, so I don’t buy that he’s unbeatable. Right now this race is flying under the radar, but I think it has dark horse potential.

There have been rumors of a significant player entering the race, with speculation focusing on 1st District Congressman Bruce Braley.

So, onto our candidate bench. One note though: I think that Iowa is one of those states where voters intrinsically know the value of seniority, and would have a hard time electing someone who wasn’t going to be there for a good long while. On the other hand, this is almost certainly Grassley’s last run for office either way, so it might not be as much of a disqualifier as usual.

On paper, my opinion is that the strongest Democratic candidate for the seat would have to be Braley, who represents the 1st Congressional District, based in Northeastern Iowa. While Obama carried it with 58% of the vote, before Braley it was held by Republican Jim Nussle. Braley is about the perfect age (51) to be viable as a long term replacement for Grassley, and he’d almost certainly be able to raise the requisite dough for such a run.

I’m not quite sure who the next best choice is though; former Congressman Mike Blouin would be perfect if he were about five years younger.

As I’m not well tuned into Iowa’s Dem bench, I did some research and came up with the following possibilities:

-Frank Cownie:Very popular Mayor of Des Moines, just young enough (60) to be viable from that standpoint. Comes from a swingier part of the state than Braley does.

-Michael Mauro: Iowa’s current Secretary of State, also 60, also hails from Polk County (Des Moines)

-Patrick Murphy: Current Speaker of the Iowa House, represents Dubuque. Young, at age 49, though came under criticism for his management of the House chamber.

-Kevin McCarthy: Current Iowa House Majority leader.

I’d love to hear the perspective of someone who’s plugged into the Iowa political scene as to who they’d think would have a good shot at the seat.

33 thoughts on “IA-Sen: Grassley Vulnerable?”

  1. I knew Tom Miller, he actually had been a mentor to me many years ago, in the 90s, in my youth.  Among our conversations he revealed to me as a youngster himself he always wanted to be a Congressman or Senator, but that as an adult he realized he much more enjoyed state office.  As a 12-year incumbent A.G. he ran for Governor and lost in a heated Democratic primary in 1990 due to his having been pro-life at the time (he switched and became publicly pro-choice 4 years later), and he came back and regained the A.G. office in 1994.  He’s been reelected 3 more times since then, the last time UNOPPOSED.  Tom told me way back when he truly LOVED being Attorney General, finding it tremendously rewarding, and he’s really A.G. for life if he wants it as no one will ever defeat him.

    I haven’t been in touch with Tom in years, but I can picture a scenario where maybe, just maybe, he decides in the twilight of his career to give a big race one last shot.  Unlikely?  Yeah, very, I admit that up front.  But it goes without saying that if there really is a high-profile Democrat contemplating a challenge to Grassley, that in itself already is UNlikely.

  2. In Iowa the Gov/L.G. candidates run as a ticket, the Governor’s candidate picking the running mate, same as for Prez/VP nationally.  And a L.G. in Iowa usually keeps a low-profile, although Branstad was Robert Ray’s A.G. before running for Governor and winning upon Ray’s retirement.  But then Sally Pederson, Vilsack’s L.G., was really a figurehead and never ran for anything in her own right.

    But Patty Judge is unique:  she was the elected statewide Secretary of Agriculture in the not-too-distant past, 2 terms.  She also was a state Senator.  So Judge has proven independent vote-getting ability, including statewide.  And it’s notable that farming is traditionally “men’s work,” and having a woman get elected to the top farming political job is significant even though I recall that strangely not much was made of it.

    Patty Judge’s one foray into national politics came when in response to Sarah Palin last year, as reported in many places including the Huffington Post.

    The money quote:

    Sarah knows how to field-dress a moose.  I know how to castrate a calf.  Neither of those things has anything at all to do with this election.  But since we know so much about Sarah’s special skills, I wanted to make sure you knew about mine too.

    I’ll add one more thing:  Iowa has never elected a woman to federal office.  There have been a few lieutenant Governors, Judge was Ag Sec’y, and in the late 80s/early 90s Elaine Baxter was the first woman elected statewide in Iowa as Secretary of State.  But Baxter lost a Congressional bid in 1992 that she choked away after leading in the polls the whole way, and no other woman has come close.

  3. why not Blouin…I know he;s old but one would think he’d have a better shot than Judge.  

  4. Idle speculation.  Assume that Braley steps up and runs for Senate instead of re-election.

    Wikipedia says Harkin moved to Ames in 2007…any chance that the commission would draw Harkin in with whoever wins the IA-01 open seat in 2010?  I mapped out the population on Dave’s app, you’d probably need to stretch IA-02 up the Mississippi another county or two, and stretch IA-03 south and southeast instead of north, but it’s do-able.  Didn’t check what those PVIs would look like.

  5. Whoever does run against Grassley may get some of what I’d like to call the “Tinklenberg effect” (or perhaps the “Elwyn effect”) … an outpouring of support from grassroots and netroots Dems around the country to try and knock him out after his death-panel rhetoric. (ie–crazytalk that gets Dems motivated nationally, reminiscent of the Bachmann-Elwyn Tinklenberg match from the 2008 cycle)

    I would just bet that Grassley’s going to get a tougher fight this year than he’s had in awhile. I know I’ll be giving money to whomever takes on Grassley, that’s for sure.  

  6. I’m sure this will be disregarded as me being me, but I don’t think we have any real shot at knocking off Grasserly period.  Things would not only have to turn into a 2006/08 Atmosphere, but we would also need to recruit a top candidate like Vilsack.  And even then its a coin toss.

  8. have an idea why Grassley got a pass in 1986? Every GOP senator that rode Reagan’s coattails in 1980 got a very tough challenge except Grassley. Anyone know why?

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