Thanks to some handy township maps posted to Dave Leip’s forums, I’ve been able to craft a new map for Michigan. Have a look:
(Open the map up in a new window if you need it bigger)
District breakdown:
MI-01 (dark blue, Bart Stupak – D) – I didn’t change Stupak’s district much. At best it’s added a couple of Dem-leaning counties.
MI-02 (pink, Vern Ehlers – R) – Combination of Hoekstra’s district and the Grand Rapids portion of Ehlers’. Should be a fairly Democratic district.
MI-03 (brown, open) – A safe Republican district encompassing the suburbs of Grand Rapids and the Republican counties north of there. Ehlers would probably move here.
MI-04 (red, Dave Camp – R) – Added Saginaw to Camp’s district, making his re-election much harder.
MI-05 (dark green, Dale Kildee – D) – He lost Saginaw but retains heavily-Democratic Flint. Also picks up some Democratic portions of Candace Miller’s district. Should still be safe.
MI-06 (light purple, Fred Upton – R) – Expands east to take in the Republican territory from Schauer’s district. Safe Republican.
MI-07 (light green, Mark Schauer – D) – Basically a Battle Creek/Lansing district, so it’ll be much safer for Schauer.
MI-08 (teal, Mike Rogers – R and Thad McCotter – R) – I put Rogers and McCotter in a new, Ann Arbor-based district. Either one would lose the general. Rogers might move and challenge Kildee in his district, but that would still be an uphill climb for him.
MI-09 (grey, Gary Peters – D) – Not much changed here, although he did lose a few Republican bits at the top of his district.
MI-10 (purple, Candace Miller – R) – Safe Republican district, didn’t change much.
MI-11 (light blue, John Dingell – D) – Dingell’s district expanded southwest to include the slightly-Republican county of Lenawee. It should still be balanced out by the Wayne portions of the district.
MI-12 (yellow, Sander Levin – D) – Not much changed here.
MI-13 (magenta, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick – D) – Expanded a bit, but still majority-black (51%).
MI-14 (light purple, John Conyers – D) – Same here, 53% black.
So there you have it, a potentially 10-4 map. I don’t like to dilute Democratic districts, but I think all of the Dems on this map with the possible exception of Stupak would be pretty safe.
not 10-4. I only count three safe Repub districts, 3, 6, and 10.