209 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  6. After living in IN for two years, I’ve finally decided to start paying attention to the House races here.  However, I haven’t been politically involved here and don’t know much about the districts except for Hill’s (where I live).

    I came across this diary by IndianaProgressive from a few months ago that seems like an excellent analysis.  IndianaProgressive suggests that all 9 House districts (5D, 4R) won’t be seriously contested in 2010.  The one obvious caveat to that is that Tom Hayhurst has now stepped up to challenge Mark Souder again (as he did in 2006).  Hayhurst is the best possible Democratic candidate for the seat, and he will make it a barnburner of a race, though Souder still has to be heavily favored.

    But what about the other races?  I agree with IndianaProgressive that Brad Ellsworth, Andre Carson, and Mark Pence are as safe as can be.  Pete Visclosky is under federal investigation and may not be around any more in 2010, but his seat is extremely safe D.  Dan Burton is vulnerable only to a primary challenge from the right.

    The remaining seats, though, make me wonder about competitiveness.  Steve Buyer drew a halfway decent challenger last cycle in attorney Nels Ackerson, but Ackerson imploded late in the campaign (as in, he couldn’t get anyone to show up at his press conferences — that bad) and wound up getting pasted 60-40.  Still, doesn’t this show a bit of vulnerability for Buyer — particularly given that his district has the exact same PVI as Souder’s, and Souder has drawn top-shelf opposition for three straight cycles?  The remaining two seats are Democratic and belong to Joe Donnelly and Baron Hill.  Both won convincingly last cycle, but both faced very subpar opponents — Donnelly the miserable failure Luke Puckett, and Hill the four-time candidate and three-time loser Mike Sodrel.  Could either be vulnerable to a strong challenger?  The GOP appears to have no bench in CD-02, as evidenced by their selection of Puckett, but is there someone in CD-09 who’s been waiting for Sodrel to quit and might run now that he’s finally thrown in the towel?

    Finally, looking ahead, will we win Pence’s district once he retires to run for President in 2012?  Despite his conservatism, his district has a better PVI than any other GOP-held district in the state, and is only a couple of points off from Ellsworth’s.

  7. In our last episode, you’ll recall, Bill Hedrick (D) came out of nowhere to nearly topple corrupt, self-satisfied Ken Calvert (R). Hedrick is now trying again. For some reason, Calvert has been hanging out at some place called Bullfeathers in DC (according to Politico) rather than tending to business in the 44th.

    In a campaign email, Hedrick accuses Calvert of “standing in the way of health care reform.” Hedrick fudges on whether he supports the public option. (Do I really have to call it the American option as Lakoff decrees? Ugh.)   But reading between the lines, I think he does. He supports “lowering the cost of health care so that no families are ever forced to decide between basic health coverage and putting food on the table.” This was a safely Republican district until 2008, when Obama won it and Hedrick almost pulled off his upset. So Hedrick’s rhetorical caution is understandable.

    The fact the Calvert isn’t here yet during the August recess is puzzling. He’s savvy with his polling, so perhaps the polls are telling him that the district has reverted to pre-2008 normal, and he needn’t bother. Or perhaps polling is telling him that he is in trouble on health care, and he should keep his head down until the issue is decided in the fall.

    It’s unclear right now whether the Democratic tide will rise or recede here in 2010, but this is a district to keep an eye on.  

  11. Being off the net for a few weeks and catching up, I totally missed the news that John Hughes died. Wow. Only 59. Heart attack.

    I see that a SSP Weekly Open Thread a couple weeks ago was dedicated to him.

    Here are a couple links. This is the Manhattan sidewalk where he died: Tracking Down the Place Where We Lost John Hughes

    And then there’s a documentary about Hughes that looks fairly promising, with a more interesting premise than most documentaries.

    Don’t You Forget About Me: it “details the journey of a group of young filmmakers who go in search of the reclusive icon.”

    It was actually completed last year, but couldn’t get sold to any distributor, and looked to be shelved. Then day aftet Hughes died there was a bidding war, and John Hughes doc finds distributor.

  12. Big news of the week: a new poll commissioned by a Republican 527 group, conducted by Hill Research Consultants in late July.

    Culver’s favorables are 52/38. They didn’t release his approval numbers. His re-elect is 31/55, although they asked the question in a non-standard way (ending with “is it time to give someone else a chance to do better?”). Culver leads most of the potential Republican challengers but trails former Governor Terry Branstad by a 53-34 margin.

    Caveats: Hill Research only released results for “likely 2010 voters.” I have not been able to confirm the likely voter screen they used. I would argue that no likely voter screen is valid more than a year before the election. Hill Research also didn’t release all of the question wordings or the question order.

    Branstad said in May he wasn’t interested in running, but more recently he has said he’s thinking about it and will decide by October. GOP insiders say he will definitely run. They are desperate, because their bench looks weak against Culver.

    I wouldn’t panic just yet. Branstad hasn’t had a campaign since 1994. People have warm, fuzzy memories now, but they will be reminded of his record. Current GOP front-runner Bob Vander Plaats has made clear that he’s not stepping aside for Branstad. He will argue that Branstad kept two sets of books to run illegal deficits and raised taxes several times. Social conservatives, who saved Branstad’s bacon when he was challenged in the 1994 GOP primary by then Congressman Fred Grandy, are now more inclined to support Vander Plaats because of his way-out-there stands on gay marriage. (Branstad appointed two of the seven Iowa Supreme Court judges and has not condemned the Varnum v Brien ruling.)

    Vander Plaats is crazy, but he has a constituency and he will drive up Branstad’s negatives.

    Iowa’s unemployment rate is up but still low by national standards.

  15. Apparently the third party candidate, Chris Daggett has hired the talented media consultant Bill Hillsman to do his tv ads. Bill Hillsman in the past did campaign ads for Paul Wellstone, Jesse Ventura, Ned Lamont, and others. Currently, the Daggett campaign is looking for actors to play Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in his political ads. I predict that a huge % of the vote will go to third party candidates in this race. In addition to Corzine, Christie, and Daggett, there are 9 other third party candidates on the ballot and there are three additional write-in campaigns. Im predicting that Chris Daggett will get anywhere from 15% to 20% and all other candidates will get 2% to 4%. Based on these facts alone in addition to all the news that has come out about Chris Christie last week, this race should be considered once again a tossup. I also believe that more issue and scandals related to Christie will come out as the campaign goes on because it appears as though Chris Christie has a lot of skeletons in his closet.

  16. They have Harry Reid traling Danny Tarkanian 49-38 and Sue Lowden 45-40. I find it hard to believe that Tarkanian would outpoll Lowden. Maybe the voters are thinking of Jerry.

Comments are closed.