You wouldn’t think of Oklahoma as particularly fertile territory for Democratic pickups in Congress lately, but the Oklahoma Democratic Party (and, apparently, the DCCC) is hoping to line up a couple of stronger-than-expected challengers in a pair of GOP districts, according to the Southern Political Report. In the 1st CD, Democrats are attempting to test GOP Rep. John Sullivan for weaknesses. (Sullivan, as you may recall, checked into the Betty Ford clinic earlier this year due to his alcohol addiction.) However, any Democrat would likely have a tough time overcoming the district’s GOP bent; McCain won the CD by a 64-36 margin (R+16 PVI) and the district hasn’t sent a Democrat to the House since James Robert Jones held down the seat for seven terms until his retirement in 1987. The Southern Political Report identifies outgoing Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor, a potential self-funder, as a possible Dem recruit, but also names former state Sens. Scott Pruitt and Jim Williamson as potential Republican primary opponents for Sullivan.
Over in the Oklahoma City-based 5th CD, where incumbent Republican Mary Fallin is jumping ship in order to pursue her gubernatorial ambitions, the “hottest rumor” on the block is that Kim Henry, wife of Democratic Gov. Brad Henry and celebrated educator, is interested in running. The Governor’s office, though, says that the First Lady has “no plans to run for public office”. OK-05 looks like it has the potential to be the more interesting race of the Oklahoma duo, though, as it was the only district in Oklahoma that had an appreciable shift towards the Democrats in 2008. (Obama lost the district by 41-59, up from a 36-64 Kerry loss four years earlier.) For the GOP, an expensive primary is already brewing between state Rep. Mike Thompson and former state Rep. Kevin Calvey.
Popular Oklahoma City Mayor Tom Cornett, who ran for the open 5th CD GOP primary to Fallin in 2006, announced yesterday that he’ll seek a third term in 2010. That takes a run for the House off the table, and he also explicitly ruled out a run for Governor or Lt. Governor, too.
ex Budget Committee chair
Id be excited for the OK-05 if Henry gets in, OK-01, probably not at all.
Its great having huge majorities but electing more Blue Dogs only gives them more control of the caucus and legislation process. If we dont need them to have a majority then who cares.
OKLAHOMA CORPORATION COMMISSIONER (SHORT TERM)
Dana Murphy (R) 52%-738,671
Jim Roth (D) 48%-674,905
Jim Roth was originally appointed by Brad Henry for the position but was not able to survive a special election in blood red Oklahoma to fill out the remainder of his term. It is almost amazing that he got 48% of the vote in blood red Oklahoma given the landslide wins by McCain and Inhofe. I think he should challenge Tom Coburn for senate in 2010 while I don’t think Roth would win, I do think that it could help him create a statewide profile future elections. In addition, Jim Roth is the first gay man to serve in statewide office in Oklahoma.
Both of them would be spectacular candidates. If we’re going to knock off Sullivan, 2010 is the year to do it. Sullivan’s always been whacky but coming off of his stay at the Betty Ford clinic, he has really gone off the rocker (he made headlines a couple weeks ago for his despicable appeasement of the birthers).
Unfortunately, however, I seriously doubt that Taylor will run. Earlier this summer, I talked to someone who works with her about the possibility of a challenge to Sullivan. This particular person said a campaign for Sullivan’s seat was almost entirely out of the question. This person said that Taylor would gladly accept an appointment from a Democratic governor (either Attorney General Drew Edmondson or Lt. Governor Jari Askins). I should note, however, that I’m pretty sure this person was an unpaid intern so take that information with a grain of salt.
Based on what’s happening in Tulsa, I find it very easy to believe that Taylor wants to back out of politics for the time being. It should be noted that she abruptly aborted her campaign for re-election despite her high approval ratings, which were well into the 60s%. The Great Recession’s impact on the city has thus far been relatively slow but Tulsa is only late to the game. Many people predict that the budget is bound for a crisis and that Taylor is bailing because she wants no part of the impending mess.
I’m not too familiar with Oklahoma City politics but I can almost guarantee that Kim Henry won’t run for Fallin’s seat. I’ve always felt like her husband has expressed little interest in running against Coburn or Inhofe because of his family’s insistence on staying in Oklahoma. If Kim Henry runs for anything, it will be for state superintendent of public education where she would replace outgoing Democrat Sandy Garrett.
where Democratic strength is growing rather than shrinking. Even though we are very likely to certain to lose these seats, it is certainly worth an attempt here.
OK-2, OK-3, and OK-4 are a different story.
When Sullivan was first elected, it was a January 2002 special election (to replace conservative Congressman Steve Largent, who stepped down to run for Governor).
In that election, Tulsa School board member Doug Dodd held Sullivan to a 53-45% margin. (The DCCC didn’t invest anything in the race, Dodd was underfunded, and a real upset opportunity was missed.) For a Democrat to come that close in Tulsa just a few months after 9/11 is fairly impressive.
The regular election in November 2002 was held under new district lines that had specifically been made more Republican to strengthen Sullivan. Dodd ran again, but this time Sullivan took 56%. In 2004 Dodd ran again, this time Sullivan won 60-38%. (In 2004 he faced a very tough Republican primary challenge that he nearly lost.)
Democrats haven’t made any real effort in the district since then. (There was some hope that the 2008 challenger would be a serious self-funded candidate, but she never really put much of a campaign together.)
So while this clearly isn’t a Democratic district, there is at least evidence that there is some openness to voting for Democrats among some chunk district voters.
With Sullivan likely to face another serious primary in 2010, it seems that a candidate like Mayor Rogers who has proven she can win elections in this conservative territory could be a serious challenger.
I continue to believe that the “50 state strategy” continues to make sense, and putting Republicans on defense in as many of their strongholds as possible is an important part of a national electoral strategy.
People seem to assume that she is a conservative Democrat, but I’m not sure that is a safe assumption.
For example, this is what the “City Mayors” website describes:
Those are hardly typical “blue dog” stands, so it seems that she isn’t a complete conservative.
Her campaign bio included involvement in a number of groups dealing with things like domestic violence, women’s empowerment, etc. While not a firm indicator of political stances, it does demonstrate some degree of social awareness.
(I get the impression that she identifies with the business community and is probably more conservative on economic issues.)
If she were to run, she would have the ability to self-fund, her husband is CEO of a couple of national car rental companies, and she has sat on a number of corporate boards.
The Tulsa paper article that announced her not running for re-election as Mayor said that in November 08 a poll showed 60% of Tulsans would vote to re-elect her — so she clearly has some continuing local popularity.
Anyone from Oklahoma know anything more about what kind of Mayor she has been, or what kind of member of Congress she would be?