PPP (pdf) (8/28-31, likely voters, 7/31-8/3 in parens):
Creigh Deeds (D): 42 (37)
Bob McDonnell (R): 49 (51)
(MoE: ±4%)
State Sen. Creigh Deeds still is in a hole against AG Bob McDonnell in the Virginia Governor’s race, but he’s cut a 14 point gap to 7 in less than a month. It’s also worth noting that the Washington Post broke Thesis-gate in the middle of the sample period, so only one day of polling reflects this provocative information.
While McDonell’s high favorables are starting to erode a bit (they’re down to 53/31, from 54/26 last month), PPP points to a big problem for Deeds trying to get over the top: he still trails badly among independents 60-29. The better performance for Deeds seems to be Dems finally getting more interested in the race and intending to vote, helping them fall within the LV screen (although the sample is still a McCain +4 sample, down from McCain +11 last month).
Down the ballot, Republicans lead the two other races: incumbent Bill Bolling over Jody Wagner in the Lt. Governor race, 46-40, and crazy state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli over state Del. Steve Shannon in the AG race, 48-35.
RaceTracker Wiki: VA-Gov
When that poll was released, according to politicalwire, PPP said that the last day they polled, the day of the Washingtonpost story, Deeds numbers were a whole lot better and that is where the movement came from. So I’d like to see a poll now that the dust has settled.
Side note, I was looking at Mississippi today, and I know a lot of yo udon’t care about blue dogs, but If Travis Childers can get settled into his house district, he’d have great state-wdie potential. 2 of the districts in Mississippi are heavy dem districts and then there are two others. One is his and the other is still in republican hands. So if he can win his distict, even by a narrow majority, and take the normally democratic disticts he’d pretty much be garunteed state wide victory. Would be great to have a gov, or even better, senator from Mississippi.
Rasmussen has McDonnell up 51%-42% with a poll taken after the thesis brouhaha.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
(albeit within the margin of error) is still a rediculous result. PPP showed a dramatic shift in the last day of their polling. I just can’t imagine that this won’t have an effect. Also, Rasmussen has Obama at 50 percent approval, that should mean that all things equal, Democrats should do okay yet McDonall, who is getting bad press, is winning… Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
I am not sure people take these type of past writings into account much. Obama had some connections in the past that you would think may bother moderate and conservative white voters, but for the most part they did not. Other people have done and written things in college that ended up not hurting them. People tend to look at what someone is like today. I mean doesn’t McDonnell’s wife work?
than Bill Bolling? I would assume the ostensibly better known and more popular mainstream conservative, facing a candidate Dems weren’t nearly as high on, would be doing much better. Instead his margin is half what the ultra-prominent social conservative Cuccinelli’s is. What’s the deal with that? Has Shannon just run a crap campaign?
On the gubernatorail race, I guess they figure that it is winnalbe now?