Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/31-9/2):
Dan Mongiardo (D): 41
Trey Grayson (R): 45Jack Conway (D): 40
Trey Grayson (R): 46Dan Mongiardo (D): 42
Rand Paul (R): 37Jack Conway (D): 41
Rand Paul (R): 37
(MoE: ±4%)
Primaries:
Dan Mongiardo (D): 37
Jack Conway (D): 30
Other: 15Trey Grayson (R): 40
Rand Paul (R): 25
Other: 18
(MoE: ±5%)
These numbers (both the primary and the general) line up very closely with the results that SurveyUSA produced back in August. Mongiardo and Grayson are still on top of their respective primaries, but Rand Paul’s early strength continues to surprise. The DSCC would badly like to see Paul somehow pull off a miracle in the GOP primary, but it’s pretty difficult to imagine his libertarian message grabbing hold of the Republican base. Certainly, it’s even harder to imagine Paul winning the endorsement of many lower-ticket GOP officeholders throughout the state.
As it is right now, though, it looks like John Cornyn has a lot to be pleased with now that he’s replaced a dead-in-the-water incumbent with the GOP’s best player on their Kentucky bench.
RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen
John Cornyn hasn’t gotten really any good news since he became Chairman of the NRSC, until Bunning’s retirement announcement and Grayson jumping in.
At this point, it looks like Grayson’s the man to beat. The only monkey wrench that can enter the picture is if Bunning retires early, “forcing” Gov. Steve Beshear to appoint a replacement.
I put forcing in quotation marks because for the governor, it’s not really a chore. Last I heard, Beshear is trying to systematically destroy the state GOP with one small move at a time. Good for him 😀
The only decent news from this poll is that Grayson has consolidated the GOP support while most of the undecided are race wise not white and party wise not GOP.
The good news is that Grayson only leads by single digits in Kentucky. Plenty of time to make up ground, especially if Conway’s our candidate.
Paul, like his father and most other so called libertarians, are only so ideologically incline when it comes to protecting corporate interests and high powered assault weapons. His libertarianism is the kind the teabagggers and birthers scream at their rallies, and as Paul professes belief in what both brands of lunatic are selling, and he’s getting a heap of cash from his daddy’s loyal fan base of crackpots and college kids I’ll never understand, he’s likely to cause Grayson (who never wants to be pinned down on much anything) a lot of hell.
Sad how little traction Jack Conway has gotten, he should have been one of our best candidates for 2010. Now it just looks like Grayson will walk to a 10 point win over whomever he faces.
I was bored and it is late so I went to the FEC website and was looking at filings… It is pretty amazing to me that the democratic state party has 168,008 dolalrs and ten thouand dollars in debt. The GOP, you would think would have a lot more right? Big time wrong… they have 9,541… Wonder what the dems are going to do with all that CoH advantage… Either state house or senate races? Anyway, doubt anyone will read this anyway, just thought it was interesting.
that a majority of Kentuckians actually know who Rand Paul is.
Grayson 43/21
Paul 39/16
Mongiardo 47/39
Conway 45/37
Beshear 49/42
McConnell 44/51
Obama 34/63
I think the key to a Democratic victory is to tie Grayson to McConnell, and have our candidate tout economic populism. Obama will not help our candidate out here, and I’m reluctant to have Beshear involved, too.
I’m feeling okay about our chances. McConnell is not popular, and Grayson is his man.