Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps (9/8-9, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (41)
Chris Christie (R): 41 (43)
Chris Daggett (I): 10 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)
Democracy Corps’ website is on the fritz for now, so I can’t link to any crosstabs right away. We’ll get you the straight dope once it’s available, though. D-Corps’ website is back up.
Rasmussen Reports (9/9, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (42)
Chris Christie (R): 46 (50)
Chris Daggett (I): 6 (-)
Undecided: 10 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
This is the first time that Rasmussen has actually included independent Chris Daggett in the mix, and he clocks in at a not-insignificant 6%. Rasmussen also cheekily threw in a few “Who do you trust more?” questions on taxes, “cutting” government spending, and corruption, and — surprise, surprise — found Christie in the lead in each column. Of course, no questions were asked on issues that may have played to Corzine’s strengths, but, hey, this is Rasmussen.
(In the diaries, conspiracy has more.)
UPDATE (David): One key point – among non-leaners, Christie’s lead has shrunk from +11 to +4, which is a pretty dramatic drop. Ras explains:
However, it’s worth noting that other indicators suggest that Christie’s lead might be a bit softer than the eight-point advantage indicates. Results before leaners are included show Christie up by just four points. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Christie leads by six. This suggests that the GOP campaign may be like a baseball team heading into the late innings with a lead but lacking a reliable closer. They’re happy to be ahead but can’t wait for the game to end so they can breathe again.
I wonde what Corizine has to do to pull this out. I’d guess there isn’tmuhc he can do.
In addition, the article states that a path to victory for Corzine is definatly possible.
is that Christie and Corzine both have underwater favorables.
I think there’s movement left in this race.
Notice how Christie’s proportion of the vote keeps declining in Rasmussen polls.
July 7, 53%
August 8, 52%
August 25, 50%
September 9, 46%
I honestly think that if Daggett gets over 10% and the other 9 candidates on the ballot along with the 3 write in campaigns gets 2% than Corzine will be re-elected.
but this one warrants it-
Which would be?
North
48% Corzine
30% Christie
9% Daggett
South
30% Corzine
56% Christie
9% Daggett
Central
28% Corzine
50% Christie
13% Daggett
This race should be moved to Tossup again
The party should have had a talk with him. It’s not like he’s this great democrat anyway. There have got to be better dems in NJ. How about Cory Booker? I was very impressed with him on MTP a few weeks ago.
Independents aren’t moving in his direction. Yeah, they’re becoming weary of Christie, but they’re defecting to Daggett and “undecided” (which is probably a Christie vote in the end). Corzine absolutely cannot win with just 38-40% of the vote.
from senate to governor??? I never understood that.
If NJ hasn’t had debates then they might be what tips Corzine over the edge. Debates seem to typically favor Democrats, especially in Liberal states.