Public Policy Polling (9/10-11, registered voters):
Rob Miller (D): 44
Joe Wilson (R-inc): 43
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Whoa. Based on some earlier teasing from PPP’s Tom Jensen, it sounded like Wilson’s outburst against Obama was not hurting him at all in his district, but that’s clearly not the case according to the complete results of the poll. Voters disapprove of Wilson’s outburst by a 62-29 margin, and 49% say that they’re less likely to vote for him (with 35% being more enthused to re-elect him). That’s despite a bare plurality of voters thinking that Obama was actually telling the truth about his health care plan’s coverage of illegal immigrants (46-42).
I guess that New York Times piece filled with gushing praise for Wilson from back home may need to be re-examined…
UPDATE: According to Roll Call, a “GOP source” is claiming that Wilson has raised $700,000 since his outburst in Congress. There’s no way to tell if that number is utter bullshit (which I suspect it could be), as the GOP has no real widely-used equivalent of Actblue that serves as a publicly-viewable online fundraising conduit. The only comparable tool they have, Slatecard, shows a $725.00 tally for Wilson. Considering that Slatecard has redirected its main page traffic to a special “Support Joe” page, that’s pretty pitiful. Third quarter fundraising reports will be due on October 15th, so we’ll have to wait to find out just how fiercely GOP donors are rallying behind Wilson. Until then, I suspect that part of that $700K figure may include a few “pledges”.
LATER UPDATE: Miller’s campaign has said that it’s pulled in a million bucks in the past 48 hours.
Here’s the question: does anyone believe that Obama has a 38% approval rating with whites in this district? I’d want to see similar corroborating polls first.
But when the storm passes I’m not seeing it. I’m reminded of Mad Michelle Bachmann who trailed Patty Wetterling in 2006 at the height of Mark Foley and then trailed El Tinklenberg after her patriotism comments. And SC-02 is way more Republican than MN-06.
this is on the heels of Wilson’s outburst, and we’re a year away from the midterms. So there’s nothing much these numbers can tell us except that Wilson’s outburst mostl likely hurt him than helped him.
This is not your traditional Southern rural district full of birthers and teabaggers. This district has a lot of “respectable” upscale Republicans in Richland, Lexington and Beaufort counties, and is 27% black.
Rob Miller won 46% in 2008 for a reason. Obama got 45% there.
Could Wilson be vulnerable to a challenge in the Republican primary?
I lived for 8 years in Columbia, just barely inside the 6th (just outside the 2nd).
Lexington County is a huge GOP stronghold, but it is middle class and well educated. It responses much stronger to Chamber of Commerce type Republicans, than Bob Jones/Bible-belt social conservatives.
Beaufort County is similiar but with wealthy retirees being the source of the GOP votes. Miller is a retired Marine and Parris Island is in Beafort County, along with a substantial base of veterans. Of course, Wilson is military too, but at least Miller can match him on that.
These numbers are believable, but like all polls, it is a snapshot in time. Wilson’s behavior going forward is going to be a factor.
Having $800k-$1mm this early is better than having $2mm on Oct. 1. Miller raised a total of $632,000 for the entire 2008 campaign, and will probably double that this time, perhaps more.
He also has a race under his belt, and also the credibility of a strong showing last time. Future donors will be attracted to him because of his already large warchest. Plus the time he might have had to spend on raising money can now be spent getting votes.
While Bush’s incompetence is a fading memory, Sanford is really embarrassing the state, and pissing nearly everyone off. The GOP brand is tarnished very badly right now. [Sanford, potentially gay Lt. Governor, State Treasurer quit over coke addiction] Sanford will NOT be going quitely either. That drama still has many chapters to go, and the GOP’s image will take a beating the whole time.
Despite all that, and the benefit that gives to Miller, Wilson’s outburst is DEFINITELY overshadowing Sanford’s drama at the moment.
There will be a ton of candidates for a long list of statewide offices(no incumbents for Gov, Lt. Gov, Atty Gen, Supt. of Education). The potential for very bitter and divisive races (in the GOP) across the board is huge.
Bottomline, this IS DEFINITELY a winnable race for Miller,IMO. A nearly Safe GOP seat has turned into almost a “Lean GOP” seat, at least for now.
Rather than just “the outburst,” I think that Miller can point out that Joe Wilson is not just a conservative, but one of the most extreme conservatives in the Republican caucus. Progressive Punch has him ranked 414th out of 434 members rated. If indeed this is a district with a lot of more moderate/conservative suburban whites, maybe a more blue-doggish Dem who is a Marine and Iraq War Vet can make the “Wilson is a right wing loon” argument.
but this gives Miller some early, much-needed cash and some guaranteed profile, which will give him a real opportunity. No doubt, Wilson made his life a lot harder for no good reason.
Although I am congenitally opposed to giving money to election contests in states that are not likely to be (1) somewhere near the margins in Presidential elections and (2) north of the Mason-Dixon line, I sent $5 to Miller this morning. Same as Tinklenberg in’08, it has its own moral imperative apart from political calculation.
Following is the e-mail message I sent to a number of friends. I encourage Swing State Project readers to respond, as well:
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Re: You Lie!
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Surely you saw rude frat-boy Congressman Joe Wilson shout at President Obama Thursday night.
Wilson diminished both the Congress and the Republic.
Attached are two links. The first is to a Funny or Die snippet lampooning Wilson.
The second is a link to ActBlue.
I have used ActBlue many, many times and have a very high degree of confidence in it.
I urge you to look at Funny or Die first and share a smile.
Then I encourage you to join Sherry and me in sending $5 (you can send more) to Rob Miller, Wilson’s Democratic opponent.
While it doesn’t much matter to Sherry and me who is running against this urchin, I do know that Miller pledges to bring “adult representation” to a district “where many lack jobs, healthcare, hope”.
Just so you know … Miller, an Iraq War veteran, is said to be socially conservative.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/po…
http://www.actblue.com/entity/…