Quinnipiac (9/8-10, likely voters, 6/26-7/1 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 42 (37)
Rob Portman (R): 31 (33)Lee Fisher (D): 41 (36)
Tom Ganley (R): 29 (30)Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (35)
Rob Portman (R): 34 (34)Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (35)
Tom Ganley (R): 31 (31)
(MoE: ±3%)Lee Fisher (D): 26 (24)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 17 (21)
(MoE: ±4.8%)Rob Portman (R): 27 (33)
Tom Ganley (R): 9 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
Here’s the second half of Quinnipiac’s poll of Ohio (they did the Governor’s race yesterday). Despite the rough patch a lot of Democrats running for the Senate have run into in the last month or two (see today’s spate of Rasmussen polls), the Democrats seem to be holding their ground in the open seat Senate race in Ohio, in fact gaining a bit from the so-so numbers they put up in July. This sample also sees Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher putting a little distance between him and his Democratic primary challenger, SoS Jennifer Brunner.
We’re still a long way from decisively knowing anything here, though, as seen by the large undecideds in each category (especially the primaries). Fisher is the best known of the four, and even he has only a 33/13 favorable (with 55% “haven’t heard enough”). By contrast, ex-Rep. Rob Portman, who seems well-known only in the Cincinnati area despite time on the national stage (as Bush’s trade rep and then budget director), is 72% unknown.
RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen
(even though this poll’s MoE is a large 4.8) I wonder if it’s not too late for her to decide to switch back to the SoS race and go for re-election.
Extra resources can be spent winning Kentucky.
Hopefully this compells Brunner to go back to the SOS race so we have someone good in place for 2014 Gov. race.
that Fisher would make a horrible senator because he has been a mediocore politician. Brunner would make an excellent senator, I’d much rather have Brunner than Fisher, he’d be a do nothing senator.
That poll has a whopping 55 percent undecided in the Democratic primary, and there are several demographic trends that favor Brunner-not the least of which is the large number of Democratic women that have been organized in Ohio in the past campaigns (most recently and most significantly Hillary’s) on behalf of women candidates. Fisher’s campaign is largely reacting to whatever Brunner does, and she’s running a pretty agressive campaign I might not add. Besides, Fisher has a looooooooonnnnngggg track record of blowing it, so I’m fairly confident in this prediction.
improving. I was beginning to think it was going to start slipping away when it is a race Democrats should win. What’s more is that the primary is not getting terribly ugly, even though this one many of us kind of predicted would get ugly, meanwhile for some unknowable reason Mongiardo is taking to KY-SEN to a high level of nastiness and basically serving to sink both candidates general election chances and trying to harpoon Conway as a liberal. It doesn’t make sense there seeing as Mongiardo should consider that if he wants a political future he should not burn his bridges with the pro-Conway camp.
are (R) not (D).
As I’ve said all along, I feel Jennifer Brunner is the superior public servant, and would do better in the US Senate. The job she’s done as SOS has been nothing short of outstanding, especially in the face of the ridiculous lawsuits brought about by the Ohio GOP prior to the 2008 election. She’s battle tested, and knows how to run a campaign. And she’s very liberal too.
That being said, Fisher’s not a dunce, and he’s not a bad guy. I think he has some good stances on policy, and is fairly popular. The fact that he’s so far ahead on Portman tells me that he might actually be more electable in the general than Brunner, who’s a little more outspoken and freewheeling. Fisher’s more conservative, but at times it does make him seem a bit averse to change, despite his obvious partisan leanings to the left.
The biggest issue in the state of Ohio in 2009, much like Kentucky, is gambling. Ohio needs gambling. We’re losing hundreds of millions of dollars annually with people going to places like Detroit, Niagara Falls, Erie, and Wheeling to spend their gaming dollars. Dan Gilbert, the owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers and founder of Quicken Loans, has put together a proposal that would build four casinos in Ohio, 1 each in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo. Of these four cities, only Columbus is doing well, and Toledo in particular is in dire straits. Building these casinos would be a huge draw to these downtown areas, and would spur economic development in places that BADLY need it.
Bottom line is, Ted Strickland was quite frigid on gambling. I have a hard time believing that Lee Fisher would go for something like this. Brunner is backing it all the way. That’s enough to keep me in her column, but I’ll be rooting for the Dems all the way.
Coakley, Brunner, Marshall, Carnahan
Too bad Lisa Madigan isn’t running
I’m going to sound like a Republican here, but I get the feeling, the majority of Brunner’s support comes from people who just prefer her because shes a woman. She’s not fundraising as well, Isn’t polling as well and is not getting State wide support as well(Unions and the like). Seeing as how they are so close on the issues, the only thing Brunner has really is charisma and agressiveness, two things which don’t overcome Fischers strengths.
Make sure Ohio in 2012 (and 2014) is fair. Run for governor in 2014. If you’re good, you can run for president in 2016 or 2020.
of losing statewide elections? I thought that was the reason why folks liked Brunner over Fisher – he’s been in the Ohio political scene for a couple decades and is a known quantity whereas Brunner was a judge before becoming SoS and is a fresher face. So, in truth, this seems like a battle between folks who want a younger candidate that, while she may have some shortcomings in fundraising and support, has a perceived higher potential “ceiling” versus a known figure who, while we know can produce solid results as a politician, doesn’t have as much potential to be a star. Again, these seem to be people’s perceptions, as I have no real allegiance in this race as I’m not from Ohio (although I’ve had enough brush-ins with their State Troopers while driving through there I might as well be). Or am I completely off?
to make Ohio voters even consider him for senator over the very accomplished secretary of state Brunner. All I have heard is that he looses one election after another.
Again, I have no horse in this race, but is she ready for prime-time, considering her anemic fundraising? It’d be a shame if such a good candidate were to ruin her chances by jumping the gun too early. Is there perhaps a Congressional race she could move to so she could keep her federal dollars?