CT-Sen: Dodd Trails Simmons by 5 in New Q-Poll

Quinnipiac (9/10-14, registered voters, 7/16-20 in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (39)

Rob Simmons (R): 44 (48)

Undecided: 15 (10)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40 (42)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 36 (40)

Undecided: 20 (15)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40 (42)

Tom Foley (R): 38 (42)

Undecided: 18 (14)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (43)

Peter Schiff (R): 36 (38)

Undecided: 19 (16)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

It’s been Connecticut overload this week, as Quinnipiac brings us our third recent poll gauging Chris Dodd’s electoral health. Rasmussen had Simmons up by 10 over Dodd, while R2K only had Dodd trailing by four. The Q&Q Polling Factory weighs in much closer to R2K, and finds some evidence of recovery for Dodd. (Not tested in any of these polls was newcomer Linda McMahon.) His favorability rating is 40-48, which is admittedly bad, but that number is a far cry from the 30-58 rating that Dodd was given back in April, and a slight improvement from the 40-50 rating he earned in July.

When asked whether or not they believe Dodd is “honest and trustworthy”, voters give the incumbent a 40-51 rating. Again, not good, but a marked improvement over his 35-55 score on this question in July. Quinnipiac also finds signs of improvement for Dodd among the Democratic base — in a primary match-up against Merrick Alpert (bio: some dude), Dodd leads by 56-13, up from 53-18 in July and 44-24 back in May.

Quinnipiac finds Simmons cruising in the GOP primary (at 43%, vs. single digits for everyone else), but that’s not stopping Paulist economist Peter Schiff from throwing his hat into the ring. Schiff, who formally entered the race today via an appearance on MSBNC’s Morning Joe, will at least be well-funded: he already has a cool million bucks in the bank.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

14 thoughts on “CT-Sen: Dodd Trails Simmons by 5 in New Q-Poll”

  1. At least Dodd’s numbers seem to be improving. Most lickley having to do with his strong support for a public option and the dropped charges against his ethics complaint.  

  2. …and yet, they’re kinda not. Yeah, his approval rating is shooting up, but he’s completely stagnant against Simmons; the latter is losing a bit of support, but none of it is going into Dodd’s pocket.

  4. that Linda McMahon, being richer than God and fond of low blows, can at least damage Simmons enough in a primary that Dodd can sneak through the general.

    Unlike some other endangered Democratic incumbents who aren’t polling very well (ahemReidahem) I really don’t want to write off this race this early. A lot of things could still happen. The GOP field could still kneecap Simmons somehow, or things could get worse for Dodd and he’ll be forced to retire. Either is plausible, and either would improve D chances of keeping the seat substantially.  

  5. I think Chris Dodd will defeat Simmons in November 2010.  He will have a pretty nice war chest to help improve his numbers.

    I agree with the sentiment that Dodd needs to run a positive campaign.  His accomplishments in the Senate over the last 30 years has been fairly impressive.

    Another unknown factor (at least in my feeble mind) is Joe Lieberman.  Although currently Dodd is not popular in CT, Lieberman is wildly unpopular.  In 2012, Lieberman will be defeated either by another Democrat or a Republican.  To open a pandora’s box, Connecticut, if they vote out Dodd in 2010, may be faced in a few years with 2 Republican Senators (if Rell runs).  I’ve got to imagine that the CT electorate does not want the possibility of having 2 GOP senators representing them.  

Comments are closed.