2010 will be a key year in North Carolina politics. There has been some discussion on whether my home state has officially “seceded” from the South. 2010 (and 2012) will probably direct us on whether the Tar Heel state will become more reliably Democratic for the next generation.
NC-Sen Richard Burr is not popular, and he is not unpopular. The truth of the matter, Burr is unknown by a large portion of the electorate. Enter in Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall, and we will see a healthy Democratic primary (Elaine is a class act, and Cal seems to be a true progressive). This seat is a Tossup.
NC-01 G.K. Butterfield (D) will be re-elected. Period.
NC-02 If Bob Etheridge (D) does not run for the US Senate, he will be easily re-elected. If he doesn’t run, this seat will be a tossup. Etheridge relates well in this area, but at the same time he represents a mildly conservative district.
NC-03 Until 1994, Walter B. Jones Jr.(R) was a Democrat! Few know that his father was a representative for 28 years. His father was a moderate/conservative Democrat. That being said, Walter Jr. is popular in his conservative district, and as Republicans go, he doesn’t mind voting against his party.
NC-04 David Price (D) (my representative) will win in a cakewalk.
NC-05 Virginia Foxx (R)is not as popular in her very conservative district as many might think. However, barring a scandal Foxx will be re-elected.
NC-06 Howard Coble (R) will win easily if he runs for re-election (he will be 79 in 2010). If he doesn’t run, whomever wins the Republican primary will win the general election. This is a very conservative district.
NC-07 Mike McIntyre (D) is a blue dog that represents his district well. He will have no problem being re-elected.
NC-08 Larry Kissell (D) will have a fight on his hands even if the GOP can only pursuade a 2nd-rate candidate. I think Kissell wil win, but he will probably get no more than 55-58% of the vote. This district is culturally conservative, but a populist Democrat can (and will) prevail.
NC-09 Sue Myrick (R) will win re-election with little problem.
NC-10 Patrick McHenry (R) will win this race although he’s probably not as popular as you might think in a conservative district. Unfortunately, the very young McHenry will become more entrenched as the years go by.
NC-11 Heath Shuler (D) knows how to play this district well. A good challenger could defeat Shuler, but Shuler should win easier as the years go by.
NC-12 Mel Watt (D) will win this election as long as he has the desire to run. There is no indication that he wants to step down.
NC-13 Brad Miller (D) will be safe barring (a) another economic meltdown and (b) a personal scandal. I don’t consider a divorce will be much of a factor.
In conclusion, the Democrats have one race where they might pick up (NC-Sen), but they will have to play some defense in NC-08. Also, if Bob Etheridge or Mike McIntyre leave their districts, the Democrats will have to play some defense.
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Especially if Virginia Foxx is running. A democrat always has the liberal college town of Boone, home of Appalachian State, as a base to work with, and Roy Carter was by all accounts a tier 3 challenger at best. A strong candidate can win here, and while it may be a tough seat to hold in the future, at the very least it gets rid of Virginia Foxx. In the past people like Winston-Salem mayor Allen Joines, Forsyth County Commissioner Ted Kaplan had been mentioned as possibilities.
Patrick McHenry is entrenched. I don’t think you can do much better than Daniel Johnson.
Consider yourself lucky to have Price as your Congressman, I live in Mooresville so McHenry is my representative, and I attend Appalachian State, so Foxx represents me here. It’s quite depressing really.
…in regards to your poll, the electorate definitely has changed. The single biggest change has been simply that more people of color live there, and that’s slowly moved the electorate away from the right.
I very clearly remember that in 1990, when I was volunteering for Harvey Gantt against Helms in 1990, Gantt won just 35% of the white vote and 48% (rounded up) of the total.
Last year, Obama won 35% of the white vote and 50% (roundup up) of the total.
Small change, but just enough to win if black turnout is high enough, and it was. The Hispanic/Asian turnout got Obama over the hump, and it didn’t exist in 1990 because they just didn’t live there.
I suspect the evolving white electorate, with more Northerners moving in, also is helping Democrats, but that change has been slower, I think, than popularly thought.
had about a 10 point shift between the two elections and it along with Brad Miller are the Research Triangle Districts being pushed left the fastest at this point.
What’s more is I expect Kissell’s district to be shifted in 2012 to make it safer, remove Carrabus County and include more of Charlotte.