Three new polls have come out over the past few days of the Virginia gubernatorial race. Let’s run through all three, starting with the newest.
Taylor Nelson Sofres for the Washington Post (9/14-17, likely voters, 8/11-14 in parens):
Creigh Deeds (D): 47 (39)
Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (54)
Undecided: 2 (7)
(MoE: ±3.1%)
WaPo has more on where these new Deeds voters are coming from:
Following news coverage of the thesis, the poll offers fresh evidence the tactic might be working: The percentage of likely voters who see McDonnell as “too conservative” has jumped 10 points since the August poll and corresponds with a double-digit increase in the number seeing Deeds as “just about right” ideologically. The percentage of independent female voters seeing McDonnell as too conservative is now significantly higher than it had been.
In August, independent women favored McDonnell 59 to 31 percent; now they split 50 percent for Deeds to 47 percent for McDonnell. […]
In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia.
Nearly half of likely voters, 46 percent, say they have heard a “great deal” or a “good amount” about the thesis, and among those who say it will affect their vote, the influence is broadly negative. Most, though, see the thesis as not having an impact, and very few — less than 1 percent — call the thesis the most important issue in the campaign.
However, GOP voters are still more pumped up about voting — 36% of McDonnell supporters are “very enthusiastic” about voting for their candidate, while only 22% of Deeds supporters feel the same way. That’s a higher score for both candidates than they received in last month’s poll, but McDonnell had the bigger gain.
Less optimistic is the latest Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (9/14-16, likely voters, 8/3-5 in parens):
Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (43)
Bob McDonnell (R): 50 (51)
Undecided: 7 (6)
(MoE: ±4%)
The needle barely budged here despite McDonnell’s thesis blow-up. (Indeed, women prefer Deeds by only a three-point margin, which is barely changed from Deeds’ one-point lead in August.) Others are reading the needle a little differently.
Rasmussen, which hasn’t been earning too many accolades in the comments section lately, came in on Thursday with numbers that err on the side of TNS (9/16, likely voters, 8/10 in parens):
Creigh Deeds (D): 46 (41)
Bob McDonnell (R): 48 (49)
Undecided: 5 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
the undecided figures in the top box – past and present – have been flipped?
I trust Rasmussen on this poll. It’s only the ones where they aren’t held accountable by an actual election that they are tools of the GOP.
…are probably correct. At best, the first McDonnell/Deeds debate was a draw, and I think Deeds did himself no favors in that clip now circulating where he dodges questions on tax. I suspect, if anything, “thesis-gate” mostly just stopped McDonnell in his tracks from increasing on his lead, and yeah, he probably lost a 3-5% among women. But, until Deeds starts leading in the polls (which he should be doing after non-stop bad press for McDonnell), I’m keeping my money on the Republican.
he is running a much better campaign than Deeds.
If McDonnell doesn’t win (or barely wins), despite the low point in the economy and significantly more energized base, what it says is that the independent voters in this country are sending the Repubs a message, that is no matter how good your guy sounds and how bad the Dems are, we are not voting for any more right-wingers, period. If you want our vote, you are going to have to nominate moderates.
That is the only card that Deeds has to play, that is I’m not an extremist.
Washington Post and RAS both have Mcdonnell with small
lead.My rule on polling Is If you have 2 or more saying
one thing and 1 says something else Is to buy those that
say the same thing.
Tim Kaine was down by 5 In September of 2005 and he won.
If Obama voters come out Deeds could still win with big
turnout In Northen Virginia.
I can bet a lot of Media coverage if both VA and NJ go
Republican but If one stays Democrat or both COrzine and
Deeds preveil you will not hear much from the Media.
If this is right, then it’s within the range that makes a win possible.
by around 1%
Deeds was never supposed to win the primary, either. Watch in these last weeks–I like Deeds’ chances.
Yes it’s statistically insignificant, but DK/R2K at least showed McDonnell’s lead narrowing from 8 to 7. And that’s at least consistent with all pollsters’ trends, which is that Deeds is gaining. Even SUSA which is the only one left still showing McDonnell by double digits showed, early this month, a 12-point race that was 3 points closer than SUSA’s previous 15-point margin. The only debate is over the rate of closing, not whether it’s happening. And given that we’re still 6 weeks out, Deeds is still OK even if slow closing is closer to the truth than fast closing. And, of course, that SUSA poll I just mentioned already is 2 weeks older than the polls this past week.
Basically the last 4 polls, all the past week, show the margin at 2, 4, 5, and 7, which is ultimately a margin-of-error difference with the totality properly characterized as “mid-single digits” for McDonnell. I would have been happy if we didn’t reach that characterization for another 3 weeks, and I’m ecstatic we’re there already.
Corzine will (like every Dem) overperform his poll number and the final tally will be
44% Corzine
43% Christie
12% Daggett
1% Other
Corzine will win by a margin of 20,000 to 25,000 votes.
Virginia will be much closer and will be an absolute nail bitter on election night.
50% Deeds
50% McDonnell
With Deeds winning by less than 400 votes.
This Virginia race will not be officially decided for a couple of weeks or even a month but eventually Deeds will previal unless McDonnell decideds to pull a Norm Coleman but there will definatly be a recount in Virginia.
In addition, both NJ and VA have Dem SOS so Im not to worry in the case of nail bitter elections.
Victory in ’09!
The WaPo is hardly an objective source. It’s essentially a wing of the Creigh Deeds campaign.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/…
at the TNS internals. McDonnell’s “too conservative” rating has gone up ten points in a month.
I’ll go with significant Deeds momentum. I don’t buy the post-debate flap is too problematic. I read about it before watching and expected much worse than it actually was. Meanwhile, Doug Wilder is still an ass.
http://washingtontimes.com/new…
Where does he get off spouting Republican talking points? It would be remarkable to hold either of these seats in November. He better endorse Deeds…