MD-Gov: First Poll of the Race Shows O’Malley Ahead

Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies (9/8-17, registered voters, no trendlines):

Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 49

Bob Ehrlich (R): 38

Undecided: 13

Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 52

Michael Steele (R): 37

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±3.5%)

This looks to be the first poll of the Maryland gubernatorial race, and as you can see, Gov. Martin O’Malley is doing alright. (I’m not familiar with the pollster, Gonzales Research, but they do appear to survey the state of Maryland somewhat regularly.) The thing is, neither former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (the man O’Malley beat in 2006) nor current RNC chair, ’06 Senate loser and former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele are actually running. Right now, the GOP only has a bunch of nobodies on their dance card.

Ehrlich, who has publicly remained mum, will supposedly announce a decision by the end of the year. I’d also be pretty shocked if the embarrassing goofball Steele would make a run for it (though if he gets shitcanned from his present job, who knows what boredom might lead him to do). Meanwhile, there’ve been some vague hints that O’Malley could face a primary challenge from Prince George’s Co. Exec. Wayne Curry. Curry starts off with 60% not recognizing him (and 12/1 favorables), according to this poll.

For his part, O’Malley manages a 47/28 rating, which is pretty darn good for a sitting governor these days. Ehrlich is at 42/26 and Steele is at 40/34, but the MD GOP’s fortunes have really taken a turn for the worse in recent years. A fundraising report from January showed the state Republican party with barely $1,200 in the bank (the Dems had over $865,000). And the Dem voter registration edge has grown about four points since the last gubernatorial race. This race would become a lot more competitive if Ehrlich got in, but Maryland is still a very blue state.

SSP currently rates this race Likely D.

RaceTracker Wiki: MD-Gov

28 thoughts on “MD-Gov: First Poll of the Race Shows O’Malley Ahead”

  3. …there ain’t a chance in hell he’d even come close in ’10. In all sincerity, I thought he actually staged a halfway decent campaign against Cardin, but there’s no way the Chairman of the RNC (and a kinda-incompetent one at that) can win in Maryland.

    Ehlrich, on the other hand, could keep O’Malley on his toes. I doubt he could even pull within 5%, but I don’t necessarily believe O’Malley would win by 11% either. I do buy O’Malley over Steele by 15% though.

  4. It is ironic to see the Democratic Governor of the 2006 Class who got to the rockiest start, (aside from the walking disaster of Deval Patrick and the indicted Eliot Spitzer), is now in a strong position. In late 2007 Republicans were crooning quite a lot as his disapproval rating was in the double digit negatives after a large tax hike and a few controversial progressive policy initiatives after a very close, unexpectedly close victory in 2006. But as 2008 progressed O’Malley continued to build his support back up and now it looks very solid among Democrats and progressives which unfortunately for Republicans make up most of the state, and what’s more independents are fairly ambivalent on him. He has proven a strong leader during the Financial Crisis and the recession.

    It is ironic though, unlike places like Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, where it looked like the Democratic Governors were going to keep soaring in popularity and romp in 2010.  

  5. It looks as though there were several close races in 2006 (GOV, US Senate) yet in 2008, Obama performed dramatically better and MD was never even close. I understand we defeated two statewide office holders in 2006 and that black turnout obviously helped but what is at work in MD that is turning the state so dramatically blue at such a rate?  

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