A weirdly Senate-free version of the Digest…
• IL-Gov: State Rep. Jack Franks, a Democrat from exurban McHenry County, was a loud and frequent Rod Blagojevich critic, and he was considering parlaying that into a run in the Illinois governor’s primary against incumbent Pat Quinn. Franks just decided against it, though. (He does sound like he’s going for higher office in 2012, including a possible run against Rep. Don Manzullo in IL-16, a low-profile wingnut who’s gotten a free pass for almost two decades in a district that just went for Obama.) Meanwhile, Pat Quinn got another key union endorsement, from UNITE HERE’s Local 1 (giving him pretty much the big union trifecta, having already gotten the SEIU and Teamsters).
• MI-Gov: I can honestly say I didn’t see this coming; businessman Rick Snyder, who’s been polling in the low single digits in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan, won a straw poll this weekend at a confab of party insiders on Mackinac Island. Snyder (who looks like he’s positioning himself as the ‘moderate’ in the race) got 31%, while AG Mike Cox and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard each got 24%.
• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor just moved its statewide convention from June to late April. This change appears to be due in part to the expected shift in Minnesota’s primary from September to August (or earlier), thanks to a new federal law regarding the date by which absentee ballots for the general election must be mailed. The new convention date probably makes life a bit harder for candidates who are currently members of the state legislature, since the legislative session doesn’t end until May 17th, 2010. (D)
• OR-Gov: Up-and-coming Clackamas County Chairwoman Lynn Peterson was the subject of some gubernatorial speculation a few weeks ago, but now she’s declared that she won’t be running for the Democratic gubernatorial nod next year (despite her Facebook page saying otherwise).
• PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett got another high-profile (if somewhat stale) endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial contest: Dick Thornburgh, Pennsylvania’s former governor and US Attorney General.
• IN-02: GOP St. Rep. Jackie Wolarski (who has earned the sobriquet “Wacky Jackie” for her right-wing views) turned down the NRCC’s entreaties for a run against Rep. Joe Donnelly in 2008, leaving them with the woeful Luke Puckett. However, she’s sounding more interested about a run in the R+2 2nd for 2010.
• NV-03: Back to the drawing board for the NRCC in Nevada: their touted recruit John Guedry, a deep-pocketed banker who announced his bid last month against freshman Rep. Dina Titus, withdrew from the race over the weekend, citing family concerns. They may turn to former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins instead, who had considered the race. Former state Sen. Joe Heck could be another replacement, but he says he’s staying put in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
• NY-14: Our condolences to Rep. Carolyn Maloney and her family; her husband, Clifton Maloney, died while on a climbing expedition in the Himalayas, having just summitted the world’s sixth-highest peak.
• NY-23: More trouble for moderate GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava on her right flank: the Club for Growth has endorsed her Conservative opponent, Doug Hoffman (although they’d certainly telegraphed their intents, having released a poll showing him making it a 3-way race). Also, Hoffman got another boost among the social conservative set, via an endorsement from Fred Thompson (of 2008 presidential nap race fame). Democrat Bill Owens isn’t wasting any time; he’s up with his second TV spot of the campaign already.
• TN-03: Robin Smith, the leading GOP candidate to replace Zach Wamp, is claiming that Barack Obama personally called her “everything from racist to terrorist to extremist”. Smith, who served as chair of the Tennessee GOP during the last cycle, gained some previous notoriety for taking a hard run at Michelle Obama. The Smith campaign has yet to issue a retraction. (J)
• WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan, long-serving Democrat in northern West Virginia, has easily dispatched GOP opposition in his R+9 district over the decades. In 2010, it looks like he’ll face off against state Senate minority whip Clark Barnes. One glitch: although Barnes grew up in the 1st, his Randolph County residence and almost all of his Senate district are in the 2nd.
• Census: Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah — feeling the heat from the right in his primary — is introducing legislation to require the Census to ask a citizenship status question for purposes of apportionment. Such a bill is unlikely to gain any traction in a Democratic-controlled Congress.
The Republicans in TN-03 found there Bill Sali, a Republican who’s extreme and unacceptable enough to flip a strongly Republican district to the Democrats.
If they have their Bill Sali then who is our Minnick?
For what it’s worth, George Will predicts Rubio beats Crist
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…
on-the-ball in this race. I didn’t think much of our chances here when I first got a look at the candidates, but with his strong start and Hoffman running interference, things are really looking up.
I hope Minnesota changes its primary date to May or early June, rather than August; summer primaries often have extremely low turnouts.
To do better than last quarter.
With NY’s special election rules having no primary election phase, the Repub intra-party divisions haven’t gotten ironed out before the final election.
Our guy Owens now has a real chance to slip by and win.
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire has a summary of a longer “Monday Fix” article in the Washington Post that predicts that the following seats are most likely to flip:
5. IL-10 (Kirk/open)
4. NM-02 (Teague)
3. NY-23 (McHugh/open)
2. LA-03 (Melancon/open)
1. LA-01 (Cao)
I think we can all agree that Cao is very unlikely to win another election in LA-01, but I don’t agree with 2-4 on the list. Where is Minnick? He’s the most obvious omission.
Your opinions?
A second Democrat is going to challenge Sen. Jim DeMint: Chad McGowan, a lawyer from Rock Hill.
http://www.wbt.com/news/detail…
Okay, this is of minimal electoral significance, but Warner Robins (GA) Mayor Donald Walker has committed suicide:
http://www.macon.com/149/story…
Heh, I finally have something to say interesting enough to make an account here!
Snyder won that straw poll by buying it. He paid for buses, ferry rides and hotels (the island is expensive) for a bunch of folks from the Grosse Pointes.
This info is second-hand (I heard it this morning from someone who was there), so take it accordingly.
Also, an ability to organize and pay for a mob of supporters to flood a straw poll like that isn’t entirely irrelevant when calculating a candidate’s strength, so I am not saying that just because he bought it he is a phony.
The 14th is Bill Foster’s district.