Rasmussen (9/24, likely voters):
Jerry Brown (D): 44
Meg Whitman (R): 35
Some other: 3
Not sure: 18Jerry Brown (D): 45
Steve Poizner (R): 32
Some other: 5
Not sure: 18Jerry Brown (D): 44
Tom Campbell (R): 34
Some other: 6
Not sure: 16Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Meg Whitman (R): 41
Some other: 5
Not sure: 18Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Steve Poizner (R): 40
Some other: 6
Not sure: 18Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Tom Campbell (R): 42
Some other: 6
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)
I certainly would have predicted that ex-Governor Jerry Brown was doing somewhat better than San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom vis-a-vis their Republican competition, but I wouldn’t have guessed the disparity was so great that Brown is putting up double-digit victory margins while Newsom is losing to all three Republicans… yet that’s what Rasmussen is telling us. Brown wins by a margin ranging from 9 to 13, while Newsom loses by a margin ranging from 4 to 6. The differences in performance among the three Republicans — all, superficially, moderate Silicon Valley types — are negligible.
Rasmussen doesn’t give us any primary numbers, but all polls of the primary so far have Brown up, although some by a narrow margin and some with a wide edge (although no polling has been done since Newsom scored a Bill Clinton endorsement). Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman has been accorded front-runner status on the GOP side, but it would be interesting to see if that’s been affected by the recent pounding she’s taken by the media over her almost-non-existent voting history. (In fact, it’s worth noting that this sample was taken on the 24th, before the Sacramento Bee’s story broke… and now the launch of Steve Poizner‘s new ad hammering on that point.)
RaceTracker: CA-Gov
believing that Clinton’s endorsement will move much in the way of numbers. Endorsements from a Clinton-level figure can be really useful for a low-profile candidate (and even then, only in limited ways), but Newsom’s widely known, and has been the #2 in the race for months now.
a hard right Tom McClintock type to run in the GOP primary. With Whitman, Poizner, and Campbell so alike, I think a hard-right candidate could easily win the primary.
barring any stupid mistakes on his part. Newsom can’t consolidate the Bay Area vote, and the fact that the majority of the Democratic electorate are 55 or older will make a huge difference.
The GOP side will be interesting. Whitman may have frontrunner status, but she has refused to debate her opponents or do anything outside of extremely controlled campaign settings. To me, that shows a lack of confidence in her abilities as a politician and she’s been steadily annoying the Republican electorate by acting as if she’s entitled to the nomination. Also, even though she’s far outraised Campbell, he still is polling close to her amongst Republican LV’s, and she can’t seem to be able to put him away. I’d also venture that these polls won’t help her either – after all, her proponents have argued that her “electability” was to be one of her biggest assets. If she can’t prove that she can make any bigger of a difference than her opponents in taking down Brown than she’s in trouble.
My prediction is that Campbell beats Whitman in an upset as Poizner continues to nuke her on the airwaves and she makes a few high-profile mistakes (any controlled candidate is bound to make some). In the general, Campbell would have a great profile to take on Brown (pro-business, experienced but not a career politician or as affiliated with the national GOP like Whitman, and anti-Prop 9) but I don’t think he’d be able to raise the money or build his name ID enough to beat him. Brown wins, but Campbell makes it within 6-7 points.
Of course, I could be completely off but it’s fun to make such predictions!
for redistricting. A Democratic victory here means an additional 5-8 Democratic seats in 2012.
but our candidates are terrible. I really don’t know which one is worse.
I’m firmly believed all along that it’s Jerry Brown or bust for CA Dems in ’10. If Meg Whitman can get her act together, I imagine she probably would serve as the strongest competition; the other guys don’t stand a chance. On the flip side, I think anyone can beat Gavin Newsom. But, unless he gets more high-profile endorsements and/or he can conjure up a solid case against Brown and/or Bill Clinton aggressively stumps with him, I think it’s Brown’s nod to lose.
Frankly, I’m feeling a Brown/Poizner race at the moment, just because Whitman’s campaign isn’t get off on the right foot.
would be able to get her the Repub nomination (though not the general election in blue CA, of course).
But now I’m not so sure after:
1. her miserable press conference performance regarding not being registered to vote (one of her first non-scripted non-controlled events), and
2. significant growing opposition from the rightwing in CA.
There may be enough wealthy rightwingers in CA that there’s one who well might think, “Hell, I’m not a politician either, I could take her on”
Brown was a great politician back in the day, and he certainly seems to know what he’s doing. Sure, he’s not as liberal as he once was, but he’s still a lot better than Ahnuld. Except for the impossibility of his running for President from this position, I don’t see why he’s not considered an excellent candidate.
It won’t happen. Folks have been saying for months that a SoCal conservative would emerge. Nothing has emerged and there are no signs it will change. It is 9 months to the primary and given how much money is being tossed around in this race you would have to jump in now to try to catch up. But the GOP bench is thin: the largest city they control is San Diego, which is too small to launch a statewide bid, Poizner is their highest ranking elected official, and Kevin McCarthy is their only congressman that could be considered a “rising star.” Plus, the real estate crash wiped out a lot of personal wealth for would-be self-funders. I think this field is set.