Ohio Redistricting

Welcome.  This is my first diary of any kind here on SSP, and it’s about a topic that’s both geographically local to me and very relevant on a national scale.  Ohio is perhaps the most pre-eminent swing state in the nation, rivaled only by states like Missouri, Florida, and Iowa.  Ohio is important because of it’s wealth of electoral votes, 7th most in the nation.  In 2002, the Republicans were in complete control of redistricting, and drew a map that they hoped would produce a 12-6 split in their favor.  Due to demographic changes, scandals, and a national wave of strength for the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, the Democrats now lead in the Ohio congressional delegation by a 10-8 margin.  I have seen many maps made for Ohio redistricting, and they all seem to be quite similar in nature, involving incumbent protection.  What I wanted to do was create a compact map, where most counties wouldn’t have to be split apart, and one that would result in lots of competitive districts.  As such, the map you’re about to see may not make sense to you, and would certainly anger people on both sides of the aisle.  I’m not sure it’s entirely realistic, but this is what I would do if I was drawing Ohio’s congressional map.  

Navy – District 1 (Cincinnati – Steve Driehaus/Democrat) – This district is now totally within Hamilton County.  It doesn’t change a whole lot, but should be friendlier to Driehaus.  It loses the Butler county portion and adds some of Cincinnati’s eastern suburbs, while keeping his base in downtown and Cincy’s west side.  His old district went 55/44 for Obama, and I have this version standing at a PVI of about D+3 or D+4.  It’s a district that the Rs could still win with the right candidate, but it Leans Democrat.

Hamilton West – Obama 180,665 (56.5%), McCain 136,054 (42.5%)

District 1 total – Obama 180,665 (57.0%), McCain 136,054 (43.0%)

Dark Green – District 2 (Southwest – John Boehner/Republican vs Jean Schmidt/Republican) – This is the first of 2 R vs R fights under this proposal, and it’s a good one.  House minority leader Boehner against dirtbag Jean Schmidt.  I have to believe that Boehner would win such a contest, thus ridding Ohio’s delegation of their arguably worst member.  Schmidt would have a better shot moving into the new 7th and challenging freshman Steve Austria.  This district would be Safe Republican.

Hamilton East – McCain 52,192, Obama 28,137

Butler – McCain 101,537 (60.9%), Obama 62,871 (37.7%)

Warren – McCain 69,741 (67.6%), Obama 32,272 (31.4%)

District 2 total – McCain 223,470 (64.4%), Obama 123,280 (35.6%)

Purple – District 3 (Dayton – Mike Turner/Republican) – Competitiveness, along with compactness, was a major goal of my redistricting map.  One person that certainly won’t like my ideas is Mike Turner.  I’ve paired Montgomery County with Clark County to create what amounts to a closely contested district in the Dayton area.  To do this I removed Republican havens Warren and Highland counties.  Turner’s fairly entrenched in the Dayton area, and has a strong base of support, so he’d be fine, but this configuration did go narrowly for Obama in 2008.  If it were to be an open seat, it’d be a Toss Up.

Preble – McCain  13,340 (64.7%), 6,846 (33.2%)

Montgomery – Obama 136,110 (51.8%), McCain 123,040 (46.8%)

Clark – McCain 31,821 (51.3%), Obama 29,122 (46.9%)

District 3 total – Obama 172,078 (50.6%), McCain 168,201 (49.4%)

Red – District 4 (West – Jim Jordan/Republican) – Jim Jordan’s district shifts south and west a bit, taking in chunks of John Boehner and Bob Latta’s old territory while giving up some land in the north central part of the state.  No big deal for Jordan though, this is a Safe Republican district.

Paulding – McCain 5,204 (54.6%), Obama 4,043 (42.4%)

Putnam – McCain 12,855 (70.1%), Obama 5,169 (28.2%)

Hancock – McCain 21,898 (61.0%), Obama 13,357 (37.2%)

Hardin – McCain 7,553 (59.3%), Obama 4,847 (38.0%)

Allen – McCain 26,167 (60.2%), Obama 16,575 (38.1%)

Van Wert – McCain 8,993 (62.7%), Obama 5,046 (35.2%)

Mercer – McCain 14,730 (71.3%), Obama 5,636 (27.3%)

Auglaize – McCain 15,938 (70.0%), Obama 6,492 (28.5%)

Darke – McCain 17,226 (68.4%), Obama 7,456 (29.6%)

Shelby – McCain 15,005 (67.7%), Obama 6,777 (30.6%)

Logan – McCain 13,440 (62.6%), Obama 7,615 (35.5%

Miami – McCain 22,217 (66.0%), Obama 10,739 (31.9%)

Champaign – McCain 10,919 (59,2%),  Obama 7,161 (38.9%)

Union – McCain 15,049 (63.2%), Obama 8,348 (35.1%)

District 4 total – McCain 191,694 (63.7%) – Obama 109,261 (36.3%)

Yellow – District 5 (North – Open) – This is one of two open districts I have created, since I have primary fights occurring in every corner of the state.  It’s a fairly compact district and one that’s fairly closely contested as well, combining Democratic strongholds in Lorain and Erie counties with Republican areas in Wyandot, Crawford, and Marion counties.  The district went for Obama in 2008 but went for Bush in 2004.  It’s a definite Toss Up, as it’s PVI is right around even.  A lot would depend on who runs here for both sides.  

Ottawa – Obama 11,760 (52.1%), McCain 10,417 (46.1%)

Sandusky – Obama 15,101 (51.0%), McCain 13,935 (47.1%)

Seneca – McCain 13,588 (50.6%), Obama 12,751 (47.5%)

Wyandot – McCain 6,190 (57.3%), Obama 4,362 (40.4%)

Marion – McCain 14,840 (53.9%), Obama 12,016 (43.7%)

Crawford – McCain 12,050 (58.4%), Obama 8,045 (39.0%)

Erie – Obama 22,277 (55.7%), McCain 17,080 (42.7%)

Huron – McCain 10,001 (50.2%), Obama 9,461 (47.5%)

Lorain – Obama 77,719 (57.5%), McCain 55,031 (40.7%)

District 5 total – Obama 173,492 (53.1%), McCain 153,132 (46.9%)

Turquoise – District 6 (Southeast – Zach Space/Democrat vs Charlie Wilson/Democrat) – Here’s the first D vs D primary fight, and it occurs between these two sophomore reps in the southeast.  I combined these two because let’s face it, there’s just not enough territory to protect every Democrat in the east even if I wanted to.  The district runs all the way from the southern tip of the state up north into Tuscarawas, Carroll, and Columbiana counties just south of Canton and Youngstown.  Years ago this was a safe D seat, but Obama’s poor performance here has left the door open for the right Republican.  This is probably the toughest seat in Ohio to rate because of it’s democratic history coupled with Obama’s very poor performance.  I give it a rating of Leans Republican, just because no Dem candidate since Clinton has carried it.

Lawrence – McCain 15,055 (56.8%), Obama 10,956 (41.3%)

Jackson – McCain 7,837 (58.9%), Obama 5,108 (38.4%)

Gallia – McCain 8,047 (62.1%), Obama 4,616 (35.6%)

Meigs – McCain 5,891 (58.2%), Obama 3,990 (39.4%)

Athens – Obama 19,258 (66.5%), McCain 9,107 (31.4%)

Washington – McCain 16,638 (56.9%), Obama 12,082 (41.3%)

Monroe – Obama 3,623 (53.2%), McCain 2,973 (43.7%)

Noble – McCain 3,387 (56.0%), Obama 2,419 (40.0%)

Guernsey – McCain 8,950 (53.2%), Obama 7,369 (43.8%)

Belmont – Obama 15,986 (50.3%), McCain 15,127 (47.6%)

Tuscarawas – Obama 20,957 (50.1%), McCain 19,940 (47.6%)

Harrison – McCain 3,717 (50.0%), Obama 3,495 (47.0%)

Carroll – McCain 6,952 (50.7%), Obama 6,302 (46.0%)

Jefferson – Obama 17,266 (49.0%), McCain 17,216 (48.9%)

Columbiana – McCain 24,891 (52.8%), Obama 21,222 (45.1%)

District 6 total – McCain 165,728 (51.1%) – Obama 158,318 (48.9%)

Gray – District 7 (South – Steve Austria/Republican) – Nobody’s going to be more thrilled about this proposal than Steve Austria.  He ends up taking in a district that encompasses much of southern Ohio, stretching from his Greene County home to the Cincinnati exurbs, then far eastward through cities like Chillicothe and Portsmouth.  It takes in a lot of Jean Schmidt’s old territory along the Ohio River.  Although some of the counties in the east part of this district are swingy in nature, Austria should have no problem in the new 7th, which I would classify as Safe Republican.

Greene – McCain 39,252 (58.4%), Obama 27,162 (40.4%)

Clinton – McCain 12,037 (64.6%), Obama 6,267 (33.6%)

Fayette – McCain 6,931 (61.3%), Obama 4,199 (37.1%)

Clermont – McCain 60,287 (65.8%), Obama 30,124 (32.9%)

Brown – McCain 11,873 (60.7%), Obama 7,280 (37.2%)

Highland – McCain 11,390 (62.5%), Obama 6,437 (35.3%)

Adams – McCain 6,725 (60.8%), Obama 4,041 (36.5%)

Ross – McCain 16,027 (53.0%), Obama 13,636 (45.1%)

Pike – McCain 6,005 (49.5%), Obama 5,833 (48.1%)

Scioto – McCain 16,472 (52.2%), Obama 14,470 (45.8%)

Vinton – McCain 2,962 (53.6%), Obama 2,405 (43.5%)

District 7 – McCain 189,961 (60.9%) – Obama 121,854 (39.1%)

Lavender – District 8 (Northeast/Central – Patrick Tiberi/Republican) – Patrick Tiberi gets a nice break here, as his district moves entirely out of Franklin county, and picks up a new region in the northeastern-central part of the state.  This district runs from his Delaware County base to Zanesville in the east, up north to Mansfield.  I classify this is as a Safe Republican District.

Delaware – McCain 53,670 (59.3%), Obama 35,848 (39.6%)

Morrow – McCain 9,787 (60.7%), Obama 5,960 (37.0%)

Richland – McCain 32,590 (55.8%), Obama 24,473 (41.9%)

Knox – McCain 16,207 (59.0%), Obama 10,702 (39.0%)

Licking – McCain 30,545 (59.6%), Obama 19,768 (38.6%)

Holmes – McCain 7,590 (69.6%), Obama 3,074 (28.2%)

Coshocton – McCain 8,583 (51.5%), Obama 7,580 (45.5%)

Muskingum – McCain 20,174 (52.9%), Obama 17,209 (45.1%)

Morgan – McCain 3,387 (52.1%), Obama 2,921 (44.9%)

District 8 total – McCain 182,533 (58.8%) – Obama 127,535 (41.2%)

Teal – District 9 (Northwest/Toledo – Marcy Kaptur/Democrat vs Bob Latta/Republican) – I’m extremely proud of this district, which covers the northwestern corner of the state.  It also produces our first D vs R battle royal.  Luckily for Democrats, it shouldn’t even be a contest, as Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, Ohio’s longest running representative, takes on Bob Latta, a redshirt freshman out of Bowling Green.  Latta’s a lying scumbag, which is why I wanted to take him out.  In this map, he doesn’t even really have a base to counter Kaptur, considering that his home Wood County went 53/46 for Obama in 2008, and even the rural counties out west of Toledo took hard swings to the left.  In an open seat, I’d call this district Likely Democrat, which in this battle means that Kaptur will probably cruise.  I suppose Latta could move into the neighboring 5th, but that district would still be a much tougher win than his current district.

Williams – McCain 9,618 (53.9%), Obama 7,892 (44.2%)

Defiance – McCain 9,334 (54.7%), Obama 7,394 (43.3%)

Henry – McCain 8,091 (55.7%), Obama 6,163 (42.4%)

Fulton – McCain 11,414 (53.3%), Obama 9,627 (45.0%)

Wood – Obama 32,956 (52.5%), McCain 28,819 (45.9%)

Lucas – Obama 134,729 (64.5%), McCain 70,865 (34.0%)

9th District Total – Obama 198,761 (59.0%), McCain 138,141 (41.0%)

Pink – District 10 (Cleveland West – Dennis Kucinich/Democrat) – Another member of Ohio’s delegation I dislike is Dennis Kucinich.  I didn’t go all out to take him out, which would have been impossible anyway seeing as he’s from Cuyahoga County, but in the name of competition and fairness to the Repubs I did weaken his district significantly as it now includes R-leaning Medina County.  This seat still Leans Democrat, but it would certainly make Dennis the Menace sweat things out a bit more, and in an open seat situation, it’s not out of the question that the Republicans could win it with the right candidate.

Cuyahoga West – Obama 177,318 (56.8%), McCain 124,135 (42.7%)

Medina North – McCain 25,460 (55.9%), Obama 19,037 (41.8%)

District 10 Total – Obama 196,355 (56.7%) – McCain 149,595 (43.3%)

Light Green – District 11 (Cleveland East – Marcia Fudge/Democrat) – Still a plurality black district in Eastern Cuyahoga County and little changed, Fudge would have no problem in this Safe Democrat seat.  I didn’t bother to make it over 50% black as that would require some serious gerrymandering, probably down into Akron.

Cuyahoga East – Obama 264,518 (78.0%), McCain 72,234 (21.3%)

District 11 Total – Obama 264,518 (78.4%), McCain 72,234 (21.6%)

Light Blue – District 12 (Columbus East – Open) – I don’t think it’s asking much to get 2 Dem representatives out of the Columbus area, and since the Republicans are so hell bent on splitting Columbus apart, here’s your 2nd new district in the state.  It’s composed of the Eastern half of Franklin County and extends into Hocking and Perry Counties, which are swingish.  Despite the presence of R-leaning Fairfield County, I think that the Democrats would have the advantage here, as it went narrowly for Kerry in 2004 and went big for Obama in 2008 as the entire Columbus area took a hard swing to the left.  I rate this as Leans Democrat.

Perry – McCain 7,585 (50.1%), Obama 7,128 (47.1%)

Hocking – McCain 6,201 (49.2%), Obama 6,083 (49.2%)

Fairfield – McCain 40,708 (57.9%), Obama 28,487 (40.5%)

Franklin East – Obama 137,360 (60.0%), McCain 88,029 (38.4%)

District 12 Total – Obama 179,058 (55.7%) – McCain 142,523 (44.3%)

Peach – District 13 (Akron – Betty Sutton/Democrat) – One of the oddities of this map is that Betty Sutton, my representative, wouldn’t be my rep anymore, it’d be Kucinich.  Ugg.  I guess I’m just taking one for the team.  Anyway, Sutton’s district is now centered around Akron and contains all of Summit and Portage Counties.  With her popularity and the district’s partisan leanings, she’ll have no problem.  In an open seat situation, it’d probably rate as Likely Democrat.  Not having to slice up Akron three ways and giving it a district of its own was one of my goals, and this district accomplishes that.

Medina South – McCain 6,325 (52.3%), Obama – 5,577 (46.1%)

Summit – Obama 151,932 (57.7%), McCain 107,937 (41.0%)

Portage – Obama 32,160 (53.3%), McCain 26,959 (44.7%)

District 13 total – Obama 189,669 (57.3%) – McCain 141,221 (42.7%)

Brown – District 14 (Northeast – Steven LaTourette/Republican vs Tim Ryan/Democrat) – And now we come to the battle of the titans, Latourette vs Ryan in Ohio’s northeastern corner.  This district stretches from Lake and R-leaning Geauga counties on Cleveland’s east side over to Youngstown and D-leaning Trumbull county along the Pennsylvania border.  When the PVI comes out, it’s probably Democratic by a point or two, but its close enough that I consider it to be a Toss Up in an open seat situation, or in this case, a contraction battle for the ages.

Lake – Obama 54,786 (49.3%), McCain 54,441 (49.0%)

Geauga – McCain 28,314 (56.9%), Obama 20,692 (41.6%)

Ashtabula – Obama 24,233 (54.2%), McCain 18,464 (41.3%)

Trumbull – Obama 62,254 (59.8%), McCain 39,319 (37.8%)

Mahoning North – Obama 24,960 (66.4%), McCain 12,056 (32.2%)

District 14 total – Obama 186,925 (55.0%), McCain 152,594 (45.0%)

Orange – District 15 (Columbus West – Mary Jo Kilroy/Democrat) – This district is little changed, and includes the western half of Franklin County along with Madison and Pickaway counties, losing Union to Jim Jordan’s 4th.  I rate the district as Leans Democrat, just like the neighboring 12th.  I think Kilroy should still be fine with the way Columbus is rapidly turning blue, but in an open seat, like so many other D-leaning seats I’ve created, the R’s would have a good shot at a pickup.  

Madison – McCain 10,178 (61.0%), Obama 6,193 (37.1%)

Pickaway – McCain 13,087 (60.3%), Obama 8,229 (37.9%)

Franklin West – Obama 167,784 (58.1%), McCain 117,309 (40.6%)

District 15 Total – Obama 182,206 (56.4%) – McCain 140,574 (43.6%)

Green – District 16 (East Central – John Boccieri/Democrat) – John Boccieri should be a happy man as well.  His district doesn’t change a lot, but it does lose Medina County and instead adds in most of Youngstown’s Mahoning County suburbs, which lean heavily D.  In an open seat situation, this is definitely a Toss Up, but a strengthened Boccieri would have no problem securing re-election in this Canton-based district.

Mahoning South – Obama 51,396 (59.6%), McCain 33,283 (38.6%)

Stark – Obama 66,712 (50.2%), McCain 63,283 (47.6%)

Wayne – McCain 28,730 (56.4%), Obama 21,144 (41.5%)

Ashland – McCain 14,788 (60.3%), Obama 9,027 (36.8%)

District 16 Total – Obama 161,626 (53.5%) – McCain 140,084 (46.5%)

So to recap, if all 16 seats were open in a given election, here’s the ratings:

Solid R – 4 seats (2nd, 4th, 7th, 8th)

Likely R – 0 seats

Lean R – 1 seat (6th)

Toss Up – 4 seats (3rd, 5th, 14th, 16th)

Lean D – 4 seats (1st, 10th, 12th, 15th)

Likely D – 2 seats (9th, 13th)

Solid D – 1 seat (11th)

And there you have it.  Comments, reactions, complaints?

Edit:  I’m planning on doing maps for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate as well.