Monmouth University (PDF) (9/24-29, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40 (39)
Chris Christie (R): 43 (47)
Chris Daggett (I): 8 (5)
Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ±4.3%)
As we’ve seen from some other polling firms, Corzine’s numbers haven’t really improved, but Christie’s keep dropping – take a look at the Pollster chart. Monmouth also shows the race tied among registered voters, 40-40.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/28-9/30, likely voters, 8/3-5 in parens):
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 42 (40)
Chris Christie (R): 46 (48)
Chris Daggett (I): 7 (-)
Undecided: 5 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)
R2K didn’t ask about Daggett last time (which was a couple of months ago), but he seems to be drawing from Christie and the undecided column, rather than Corzine, which is good. Incidentally, “even the conservative” Wall Street Journal has a new editorial out tomorrow, hammering Christie for running an “empty” campaign. They hit him hardest for his failure to articulate any plans for dealing with Jersey’s high property taxes (this is the WSJ, after all) – hopefully this attack will resonate with the anti-tax GOP base and keep them home or spur them to vote Daggett. The WSJ finishes with this:
Even if Mr. Christie ekes out a win because Mr. Corzine is so unpopular, the Republican will arrive in Trenton with a mandate to do what he campaigned on – nothing.
Ouch! With friends like these….
I remember when Steele was saying that the NY-20 race would be a referendum of how Obama was doing as president. If Tedisco had won, the dems may be in an even bigger hole with passing reform than they are today.
If Deeds, Owens, and Corzine in their respective races, this could give the last jolt the dems need to pass the health and energy bill.
It will be upsetting if Corzine loses.
Christie was literally polling over 50% this summer. And yet somehow, I imagine a bunch of people are smiling, knowing that they predicted this turnaround, when everyone else had written this race off as a sure loss (generally, not a bad idea when incumbents are polling in the 30s).
If Corzine actually wins this will be a horrific upset against the GOP.
…who was the last incumbent Governor to win re-election, despite consistently hovering at an approval rating below 40%?
I’m looking forward to November when Jon Corzine wins this race. Corzine can win this race, and he should win this race. He may be unpopular, but from what I’ve seen, I don’t think there are many politicians in the Garden state that are wildly popular. Menendez was in trouble in 2006, but he was elected by a decent margin. Lautenberg was also considered to be endangered, but he won in double digits. If my memory serves me correct, both Menendez and Lautenberg both outperformed the polls on election day.
If I had to guess, a Corzine/Christie/Daggett race will eventually end up at 47/45/8, with Corzine squeaking it out.
I’m optimistic on this race. To me, this race is pretty much to a tossup now, but Corzine will keep hammering away and will be re-elected.
here.
Two positive signs: Corzine is winning women and many undecideds are from his base. One negative sign: Christie’s favorables are not underwater in this poll. Upshot: Corzine is outperforming his favorables and Christie is about matching his.