Seats in play….so far

4 thoughts on “Seats in play….so far”

1. ID-01 Walt Minnick (D-inc) vs Ken Roberts (R) State Representative

   I have to disagree with ya here. Vaughn Ward has most of the establishment support.
   
   Also, typo LA-03, not LA-04

2. He’s a popular incumbent who won at least 60% of the vote in the last 3 elections. There is no reason to believe it will be competitive.

3. I’d add a number of others to your list:

   FL-8

   Even before the recent manufactured controversy about his health care comments, there was no question that the Republicans would be targeting Grayson in this marginal (R+2) district. By all indications former state Senator Dan Webster is going to jump in this week, and he would be an extremely strong recruit for the NRCC. If Webster doesn’t run, there will definitely be another serious Republican challenger in the race.

   FL-22

   Incumbent Democrat Ron Klein wasn’t extremely impressive in winning re-election in 2008, with his underfunded Republican challenger winning 45% in a race that wasn’t on anyone’s radar. In this D +1 district, Allen West is running again, and this time he will probably receive more NRCC support (especially since they would love to elect an African-American like West).

   FL-25

   Mario Diaz-Balart only won 53-47 over Joe Garcia in 2008, while the district was voting for McCain by a 50-49 margin. Garcia has taken a job in the Obama administration and won’t be running next time. There are persistent rumours in south Florida that Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is seriously considering a race as a Democrat in 2010 (he is term-limited out of his current job after this November), although he is also talked about as a potential candidate for one of the statewide offices that are opening up this year in Florida’s game of political musical chairs. If Diaz makes the race, Diaz-Balart would be facing another very serious challenge.

   GA-8

   Democrat Jim Marshall always has to worry about re-election in this R+10 district. Right now his only announced opponent is former Bibb County Republican chair and Tea Bagger Paul Rish — but it is looking increasingly likely that former Congressman Mac Collins could get into the race. If Collins runs, Marshall will be in for a serious fight.  

   IL-10

   With Mark Kirk running for Senate, this seat is up for grabs. While it is a likely Democratic pick-up (either State Rep. Julie Hamos or past nominee Dan Seals). However, if State Rep Beth Coulson win the Republican nomination, she has the kind of relatively moderate profile that would make her a serious contender for the open seat.

   IL-11

   Freshman Democrat Debbie Halvorson can’t be yet said to have a firm hold on this R+1 district — she was aided last time by Obama coattails, the legacy of integrity-challenged retiring incumbent Republican Jerry Weller, and confusion on the Republican side after their primary winner withdrew and had to be replaced. This time she is likely to face former county commissioner Adam Kinzinger, and it will probably be a tighter race than last time.

   IL -14

   Democrat Bill Foster won the special election to replace former Speaker Dennis Hastert and the November general election — both times against flawed Republican nominee Jim Oberweis. The Republicans will challenge hard this time — their likely nominee is either Ethan Hastert (Denny’s son) or State Senator Randy Hultgren.

   IN-9

   This district is always a battleground, and while Democrat Baron Hill seems to be gaining a decent hold on the R+6  seat, Republicans are talking up their probable nominee, conservative activist Todd Young. Expect this to be a much closer race than the 2008  Hill 58-38 victory over former Republican congressman Mike Sodrel.

   KS-3

   Democratic Congressman Dennis Moore keeps winning in this R+3 district, but can never be entirely safe. Right now Republican Patricia Lightner, a former state Rep, is already running radio ads and is the probable nominee – but other Republican elected officials could jump in the race in hopes of a 2010 wave election for the GOP.

   LA -2

   I don’t know if this is “competitive”, but the Republican incumbent Joseph Cao was a freak winner in 2008 against indicted Bill Jefferson, and is going to lose the seat in 2010. The real question is who the Democratic nominee will be –right now the front runner is probably State Rep Cedric Richmond, but State Rep Karen Carter and a number of other serious Democrats could get into the race and win the nomination.

   MI-11

   In 2008 Republican Thad McCotter won 51-45 against Joseph Larkin, even though he outspent him by nearly 50-1 (Larkin spent only $28,000 on his campaign). This time out Natalie Mosher is already in the race as a credible Democrat and will doubtless raise and campaign more than Larkin and could beat the often erratic McCotter.  But if Democratic State Senator Glenn Anderson decides to run, this would immediately become a marquee race.

   Several more NY districts could be competitive, especially if Paterson is the Democratic nominee and continues to poll so abysmally, and if Pataki takes on Gillibrand. I’d include in this:

   NY-1: A 50/50 district where Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop has won reasonably strong against flawed Republican nominees in his re-election bids. Republicans are very hot on their nominee, businessman and political fundraiser Randy Altschuler. Likely to be quite competitive.

   NY-13: Democrat Mike McMahon won this Staten Island based R+4 district in 2008 after incumbent Vito Fossella was forced out of the race by a messy personal scandal, and Republicans went through a comedy of failed candidate recruitment. Right now the only announced Republican is  Michael Allegretti, a 31 year old with a decent resume who used to work for Mayor Bloomberg (but with the disadvantage of being from the Brooklyn rather than Staten Island part of the district, although he says he is moving to SI soon.) Allegretti will be able to raise plenty of money and play on the district’s Republican leanings. There are also rumours of other possible Republican candidates, including elected officials, and lately Vito Fossella has been testing the waters about running for his own seat. If it is a bad environment for Dems in NY, this will be a real race.

   NY-19: Democrat John Hall is going to face State Rep Greg Ball in this R+3 district. Hall should win, but it will likely be a competitive race.

   NC-8: Freshman Democrat Larry Kissell will face a real race in this slightly Republican leaning (R+2) district, even though Republicans have faced several recruiting failures. Right now the NRCC seems to be quietly supporting businessman Lou Huddleston, but there are a number of Republican candidates and several elected officials still weighing the race.

   PA-4:

   In this R+6 district, 2 term Democrat Jason Altmire will face a serious challenge next year. Already in the race is Keith Rothfus, who worked in the Department of Homeland Security and will be a very credible challenger, but it will be an even harder race if, as many now expect, State Representative (and Republican Whip) Mike Turzai jumps in.

   SC -1

   Incumbent Republican Henry Brown only won by 2%  in an near upset in 2008 to openly lesbian progressive Linda Ketner. She isn’t running this time, but a number of serious Democrats are looking at the race. Most frequently mentioned is State Rep. Leon Stavrinakis, who seems very likely to run. The only announced Democratic candidate so far is Robert Dobbs, a former Republican and former County Supervisor.  (Brown is also facing a number of serious Republican primary challengers, and could lead to his retirement.)

   The NRCC claims that they will be mounting strong challenges to 3 Democratic Congressmen in Tennessee (Lincoln Davis TN-4, Bart Gordon TN-6, and John Tanner TN-8). While all three are conservative districts (R+13 in TN4 & TN-6, and R+3 in TN-8), the challengers the Republicans are touting in all 3 districts are unproven folks who have never held office. That said, I would expect at least 1 or 2 of them to turn into competitive races.

   TX-10

   In 2008 Republican incumbent Michael McCaul was held to 54% against a Democratic challenger in a district that has been trending from solid red to purple in recent years. In 2010 the Democrats have an even stronger candidate, prominent businessman Jack McDonald, who raised more than $600k in the first 2 reporting quarters. Even though McCaul is favoured, this will be a competitive race that could go Democratic with the right campaign, and a lot of Democrats think McDonald is the candidate who can do it.

   TX-32

   Republican Pete Sessions represents this Dallas district that is growing increasingly Latino (from 27% in 2000 to 42% in 2007) with a similar increase in Democratic votes (Presidential vote 36% in 2000, 40% in 2004, 46% in 2008). The Democratic candidate is attorney Grier Raggio, who comes from a prominent Dallas political family and who has the connections to raise major money and mount a serious campaign.

   VA-9

   Democrat Rick Boucher has held this R+11 seat for 26 years with few serious races. That could change in 2010 with State Representative Terry Kilgore apparently planning to run against him (the NRCC was polling for him in August). If Kilgore actually jumps in as expected, he will be the most serious challenger Boucher has faced in years.

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