IA-Gov: Branstad’s Back; SSP Moves to Tossup

Because four terms as Governor just aren’t enough:

Former Gov. Terry Branstad filed papers today creating a campaign committee for governor, signaling the beginning of a potential comeback campaign for the Republican and reshaping the race for the 2010 primary election….

Schwarm, who plans to file the paperwork, said it should not be interpreted as a definitive sign that Branstad is committed to running. But veteran Republican strategists see the move as a tacit campaign launch, establishing Branstad as the prohibitive favorite capable of thinning the robust primary field.

Branstad, the current President of Des Moines University, was Iowa’s Republican Governor from 1982 to 1998. You might think that makes him an ancient mummy, but he was only 35 when first elected, so he’s only 62 years old (heck, he probably has another four terms in him). Branstad has polled well, pulling down high favorables and beating current Democratic incumbent Chet Culver in head-to-heads. Polls, however, have also shown a surprisingly low number of people thinking it’s a good idea for him to run again, especially among older Iowans (the ones who actually remember him).

This suggests that while Branstad starts out in strong position, once voters are reminded of the lingering negatives from his administration he may lose some steam. There’s also the little matter of the Republican primary, where it seems unlikely that some of the hard-right candidates (like Bob vander Plaats) will step out of his way. With all this in mind, Swing State Project is changing this race to a Tossup.

RaceTracker: IA-Gov

24 thoughts on “IA-Gov: Branstad’s Back; SSP Moves to Tossup”

  1. As I wrote at Bleeding Heartland today, I see three likely lines of attack for Branstad’s Republican rivals:

    1. During his first three terms as governor, Branstad kept two sets of books in order to run illegal deficits. His fiscal mismanagement was the main factor driving support for then Congressman Fred Grandy during the 1994 Republican primary. State Representative Chris Rants has already started hitting Branstad on this front. Last week he asserted,

    “Culver’s repeating the mistakes Branstad made in the 80’s. He moved money on paper and delayed payments from one fiscal year to another until it finally caught up to him and he raised the sales tax to square the books. He could only hide his deficits for so long. It’s these kinds of accounting gimmicks that caused the fallout between Auditor Johnson and Branstad.”

    “We Republicans need to be better than that if we expect to earn the trust of Iowans,” added Rants.

    Richard Johnson, state auditor during most of Branstad’s tenure, is now co-chairing Bob Vander Plaats’ campaign. Expect to hear more from him in the future.

    2. During his four terms as governor, Branstad didn’t deliver on various issues of importance to conservatives. Branstad selected a pro-choice lieutenant governor and didn’t get an abortion ban through the legislature even when it was under Republican control during his final term. Vander Plaats has already promised not to balance his ticket with a moderate, and if Branstad announces a pro-choice running mate (which is rumored to be in the works), a lot of the Republican rank and file will be furious.

    Branstad campaigned every four years on a promise to reinstate the death penalty, but he never got it done as governor.

    Last week Rants promised to press for an amendment on gun rights to the Iowa Constitution. Perhaps we’ll hear more in the future about Branstad’s failure to do enough on this front.

    3. Branstad raised sales taxes, the gas tax, and favored other tax increases as well.

    Tax hikes are never popular with the GOP base, and Rants and Vander Plaats are certain to educate primary voters about Branstad’s record. If Christian Fong decides to stay in the race, we’ll be hearing from him about this issue too. Ed Failor, head of Iowans for Tax Relief, is one of Fong’s key political backers and fundraisers.

    Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party has already started responding to the Draft Branstad PAC’s revisionist history, and will continue to call attention to how Branstad governed. Here is the IDP’s response to the first pro-Branstad radio ad. The IDP has also created the entertaining Iowa Knows Better website, with information about all of the GOP candidates for governor. Here is the page on Branstad, with details on Branstad’s two sets of books, tax increases, use of state bonding, and failure to pay state employees what they had earned.

  4. Culver is more likely to loose to Branstad than Grassley. If the public option can pass than I think it might be possible to unseat Grassley. So let Terry have the gov and lets make an attempt at picking up a senate seat.

  5. that’s for sure.

    While Democrats are running and hiding from any tough race, the Republicans pull out a strong candidate to run against a strong incumbent.

    2010 should have been/should be a great year, but not if they have backbone and we don’t.  Culver having a strong opponent and Grassley not is the clearest example of this phenomenon.

  6. You are right.  That is what happens when you write something at 3 am.  I jumped a line on Hunt (Hodges was the name above him on my list).  As for Janklow, I was too busy deciding whether to get snarky about the auto accident.

    Thanks.

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