Field Poll (pdf) (9/18-10/6, likely voters, primary trendlines from March):
Carly Fiorina (R): 21 (31)
Chuck DeVore (R): 20 (19)
Undecided: 59 (50)
(MoE: ±4.5%)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49
Carly Fiorina (R): 35
Undecided: 16Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 50
Chuck DeVore (R): 33
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.2%)
With the exception of a Rasmussen sample from July, Barbara Boxer has been posting double-digit leads against her Republican opposition. Today’s release from the respected Field Poll is no exception; she beats former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by 14 and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore by 17. Boxer is hovering right around the safety zone of 50% — same with her approvals, which are 48/39 — but considering the approvals of her opponents (9/9 for DeVore, not well-known outside Orange County, and 12/16 for Fiorina, reviled in tech circles for her HP tenure) she’s looking pretty safe.
The more interesting part of the poll is the GOP primary, where the more conservative DeVore is starting to draw even with Fiorina. Based on trendlines from March, DeVore isn’t gaining so much as Fiorina is losing support to the “undecided” column, as she seems to be racing Meg Whitman to see whose campaign can implode first, what with Fiorina’s own tepid voting record and the universally-panned launch of her new website.
RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Sen
is that with all of the NRSC and GOP gubernatorial recruiting successes this cycle, it’s nice to see one state where the GOP is flailing across the board and, in the case of this race, our incumbent is actually getting safer.
Also, Boxer always shows better than she polls. I remember this time in 2004 her approvals were about the same as now, yet she still ended up pasting her GOP opponent by 20 points come election day. She’ll do the same to DeVore once he wins the primary.
Boxer isn’t greatly loved by the California masses, but she is appreciated by many, and she is a ferocious campaigner. Any Republican thinking that she will be an easy target is sadly mistaken.
Boxer coasted to victory in 2004, defeating Bill Jones by twenty points. Jones was a decent public servant but underfunded and hapless. Boxer never raised a sweat.
The more interesting races were the first two. In 1992, she came from behind to edge arch-conservative Bruce Hirschensohn after he was revealed to have an addiction to porn, which undermined his carefully manufactured image of moral rectitude.
Boxer’s reelection in 1998 was one of the greatest races I’ve ever observed. It proved that her first victory was no fluke. Three weeks before the election, Boxer’s job approval was low, and she was behind Matt Fong by 5 points, just as she had been three weeks before that. Fong was inoffensive and careful. Boxer seemed on the ropes. Republicans exultantly asked, “Is Boxer down for the count?” Then, with exquisite timing, after having been virtually silent on TV, she released a flood of merciless TV ads, just when Matt Fong had exhausted his own resources. Boxer turned the election around, winning 53% to 43%. The San Francisco Chronicle opined that Fong turned out to have had a “glass jaw.”
I predict that Boxer will flatten her Republican opponent in 2010, whoever it turns out to be.
But this race will easily be won by Boxer. Did anyone really have any doubt about it?
She’s one of my favorite Senators.
That said, Carly Fiorina would at least turn CA-Sen into one of the more high-profile midterm match-ups; certainly not one of the more competitive, but the debates and ads would hardly be a snooze.
Is it doesn’t matter in percentage terms how close they might look because in reality that equates to millions of voters minds they have to change. No chance.