Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
It’s time to get things started.
106 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Tom Jensen is tweeting that early calls show Corzine doing very well.
I am interested in CA-Sen and CA-Gov not because they will be competitive, but I am interested in seeing how much Boxer and Brown (maybe) will win, and if they will have any effect further down the ballot. I have tabled many possibly competitive seats in the State Assembly, and there are also the 3 most vulnerable U.S. House Republicans (that won with around 50% in 2008), Lungren, Calvert, and Bilbray. I would not be surprised to see a few seats flip and possibly get 2/3 in the Assembly. Getting 2/3 in the Senate is a long shot, though we are favored to pick up the 12th Senate district.
whether he wins or loses in 2010, he has really lit a fire, and fired up the Democratic base. I get the sense that he decided to be a political martyr.
So, as of right now, it’s 10:26 am on 10/10, and I’ve yet to hear definitive news about Eric Massa’s re-election plans. Does anyone in the know have some idea what’s afoot?
For a number of years I have been surprised at how off major polling outfits have been on VA black population. All 3 recent polling outfits have black voters in VA falling to 12%. Yeah right!!!!! There is no way tha VA black vote fall bellow 16%. The Obama bump in VA was 2% (18% Kerry/2004 to 20% Obama/2008) the off year numbers are usually 16% not 12%. This 4% difference when black’s vote 9:1 Democratic is a huge swing.
During the 2008 election I saw a number of pollsters listing McCain winning 20-25%(!) of the black vote in VA (the so called reverse-Bradley effect). This was used to justify a closer than it really was polling election results in Virginia. Therefor I’m guessing one of two things.
1) Virginia has a very educated GOP voting base in NoVA that routinely lies to pollsters on their racial background. This would throw off pollster’s numbers. In most states this would be a wild conspiracy theory, but VA’s heavy number of conservative think tanks and organization makes this plausible.
2) Pollsters are relying on outdated models in VA. They for some reason have recognized the increased mobilization of black voters there. Washington DC has loss a number of educated blacks to Virginia this has caused an upshift in the entire voting rates of blacks in Virginia (more mobilized neighboors increases everyone’s voting rates). Thus models based on lower turnout of southern blacks are less appropriate and the model should be based on MidAtlantic rates.
I’m keeping an eye on the outcome in VA to test my theories on this.
I’m very excited across the board to see more numbers trickle in, especially for NY-23. If fundraising is close, I like our chances here.
The Draft Branstad PAC was formed last month (as a 527, not a PAC), and yesterday the Iowa Democratic Party caught them engaging in advocacy for Branstad after Branstad filed papers for an exploratory committee. That’s a no-no under Iowa law. Don’t know whether the Iowa Campaign and Ethics Disclosure Board will take any action.
Governor Chet Culver had an absolutely dreadful week. He imposed a 10 percent across the board budget cut after Iowa’s Revenue Estimating Conference came up with dire new projections for the current fiscal year. No department will be spared, and the education cuts will hurt. Hundreds of state employees are likely to be laid off.
The 2010 budget was based on the REC’s March 2009 estimates, in accordance with Iowa law, but Republicans are citing Culver’s budget cuts as proof that Democrats supposedly have been overspending. The party of Hoover still doesn’t get that during a recession, slashing government spending by more than absolutely necessary can be a drag on the economy.
When I picked up my copy of the Star-Ledger this morning, I was shocked to read the headline, “Christie reveals plan to close state’s budget gap.” Turns out, Christie’s new “plan” was the same non-plan he had before. They had me going for a second there, though.
An excellent explanation of why Christie’s new “plan” is a fantasy can be found here, at BlueJersey.
but says nothing about Maine or Washington.
This sums up the brain capacity (or lack of) of the California GOP, specifically the Orange County GOP, and the current fighting between which wingnut will represent the 72nd, Chris Norby, the libertarian-minded one who supports legal cannabis and is meh on abortion, (+!) who was a teacher at the high school i’m at (which makes me feel cool, just not for the right guy) and Linda Ackerman, a carpetbagger from Irvine who is appealing to the loony/establishment base. I’m not so sure Norby will get 50% to avoid a runoff, but its gonna be hard for MacMurray to win especially the anti-Obama sentiment is louder than ever and the fact that Norby is one of the 5 Republican Board of Supervisors, but i have seen yard signs alot for him in really conservative areas, so thats good to know. We had a A+ candidate in Fullerton Councilwoman Sharon Quirk, but dropped out after spouting some real family values about her husband’s sickness.
Man Orange County politics are so interesting, beats the whole state by bucketloads. Also, Jerry Brown’s website is linking to stories about polling for the CA-GOV race, which pretty much means he’s in.
I will admit it. I should probably save him the honors but the place where Pat Brown is from can now be gerrymandered by you if you have MSL.
– Lowden and Tarkanian are at 23-21 in the Primary, with 44 undecided. Teabagging right-winger Sharron Angle is way behind in third with 9.
Does Corzine’s rather lackluster performance this fall put the NJ legislature in play at all? Additionally, do you think Deeds’ performance will hinder our chances of taking the state house?
meaning that investors on the site believe that there is a 60% chance Corzine will win re-election.
St Cloud Times is reporting Clark raised $308k during the 9 weeks she’s been in the race.
Tom Jensen is tweeting that early calls show Corzine doing very well.
I am interested in CA-Sen and CA-Gov not because they will be competitive, but I am interested in seeing how much Boxer and Brown (maybe) will win, and if they will have any effect further down the ballot. I have tabled many possibly competitive seats in the State Assembly, and there are also the 3 most vulnerable U.S. House Republicans (that won with around 50% in 2008), Lungren, Calvert, and Bilbray. I would not be surprised to see a few seats flip and possibly get 2/3 in the Assembly. Getting 2/3 in the Senate is a long shot, though we are favored to pick up the 12th Senate district.
whether he wins or loses in 2010, he has really lit a fire, and fired up the Democratic base. I get the sense that he decided to be a political martyr.
So, as of right now, it’s 10:26 am on 10/10, and I’ve yet to hear definitive news about Eric Massa’s re-election plans. Does anyone in the know have some idea what’s afoot?
For a number of years I have been surprised at how off major polling outfits have been on VA black population. All 3 recent polling outfits have black voters in VA falling to 12%. Yeah right!!!!! There is no way tha VA black vote fall bellow 16%. The Obama bump in VA was 2% (18% Kerry/2004 to 20% Obama/2008) the off year numbers are usually 16% not 12%. This 4% difference when black’s vote 9:1 Democratic is a huge swing.
During the 2008 election I saw a number of pollsters listing McCain winning 20-25%(!) of the black vote in VA (the so called reverse-Bradley effect). This was used to justify a closer than it really was polling election results in Virginia. Therefor I’m guessing one of two things.
1) Virginia has a very educated GOP voting base in NoVA that routinely lies to pollsters on their racial background. This would throw off pollster’s numbers. In most states this would be a wild conspiracy theory, but VA’s heavy number of conservative think tanks and organization makes this plausible.
2) Pollsters are relying on outdated models in VA. They for some reason have recognized the increased mobilization of black voters there. Washington DC has loss a number of educated blacks to Virginia this has caused an upshift in the entire voting rates of blacks in Virginia (more mobilized neighboors increases everyone’s voting rates). Thus models based on lower turnout of southern blacks are less appropriate and the model should be based on MidAtlantic rates.
I’m keeping an eye on the outcome in VA to test my theories on this.
I’m very excited across the board to see more numbers trickle in, especially for NY-23. If fundraising is close, I like our chances here.
The Draft Branstad PAC was formed last month (as a 527, not a PAC), and yesterday the Iowa Democratic Party caught them engaging in advocacy for Branstad after Branstad filed papers for an exploratory committee. That’s a no-no under Iowa law. Don’t know whether the Iowa Campaign and Ethics Disclosure Board will take any action.
Governor Chet Culver had an absolutely dreadful week. He imposed a 10 percent across the board budget cut after Iowa’s Revenue Estimating Conference came up with dire new projections for the current fiscal year. No department will be spared, and the education cuts will hurt. Hundreds of state employees are likely to be laid off.
The 2010 budget was based on the REC’s March 2009 estimates, in accordance with Iowa law, but Republicans are citing Culver’s budget cuts as proof that Democrats supposedly have been overspending. The party of Hoover still doesn’t get that during a recession, slashing government spending by more than absolutely necessary can be a drag on the economy.
Meanwhile, Iowa’s film tax credit program has turned out to be an expensive fiasco, with a criminal probe coming. Also, a federal audit turned up problems with how Iowa spent more than $1 million of HAVA money when Culver was secretary of state.
The only good thing I can say about this week is that it’s October 2009 instead of October 2010.
http://www.theonion.com/conten…
Cunningham ready to jump into the North Carolina Senate race?
I think there’s nothing much new there, really, until or unless he announces.
National Journal’s rankings of the House seats most likely to change hands.
When I picked up my copy of the Star-Ledger this morning, I was shocked to read the headline, “Christie reveals plan to close state’s budget gap.” Turns out, Christie’s new “plan” was the same non-plan he had before. They had me going for a second there, though.
An excellent explanation of why Christie’s new “plan” is a fantasy can be found here, at BlueJersey.
but says nothing about Maine or Washington.
This sums up the brain capacity (or lack of) of the California GOP, specifically the Orange County GOP, and the current fighting between which wingnut will represent the 72nd, Chris Norby, the libertarian-minded one who supports legal cannabis and is meh on abortion, (+!) who was a teacher at the high school i’m at (which makes me feel cool, just not for the right guy) and Linda Ackerman, a carpetbagger from Irvine who is appealing to the loony/establishment base. I’m not so sure Norby will get 50% to avoid a runoff, but its gonna be hard for MacMurray to win especially the anti-Obama sentiment is louder than ever and the fact that Norby is one of the 5 Republican Board of Supervisors, but i have seen yard signs alot for him in really conservative areas, so thats good to know. We had a A+ candidate in Fullerton Councilwoman Sharon Quirk, but dropped out after spouting some real family values about her husband’s sickness.
Man Orange County politics are so interesting, beats the whole state by bucketloads. Also, Jerry Brown’s website is linking to stories about polling for the CA-GOV race, which pretty much means he’s in.
I will admit it. I should probably save him the honors but the place where Pat Brown is from can now be gerrymandered by you if you have MSL.
http://www2.newsadvance.com/ln…
McDonnell leads 48-40 which incidentally is exactly the same as the margin in this poll three weeks out in their AG race in 2005.
Sounds like somebody’s a little starved for attention.
http://www.lvrj.com/news/two-c…
– Reid’s favorables are at 38-50.
– Tarkanian only beats Reid by 5.
– Lowden and Tarkanian are at 23-21 in the Primary, with 44 undecided. Teabagging right-winger Sharron Angle is way behind in third with 9.
Does Corzine’s rather lackluster performance this fall put the NJ legislature in play at all? Additionally, do you think Deeds’ performance will hinder our chances of taking the state house?
meaning that investors on the site believe that there is a 60% chance Corzine will win re-election.
St Cloud Times is reporting Clark raised $308k during the 9 weeks she’s been in the race.
http://www.sctimes.com/article…