NY-23 – Breaking – Owens leads! per Siena Poll, 10/15

It’s true! In the special election to replace newly confirmed SecArmy John McHugh, Bill Owens (D) leads! (I hope the “breaking” headline is allowed here. – and I may X post this at DK shortly.)

It’s a pretty close three way race:

Owens has the support of 33 percent of likely voters in the 23rd Congressional District, followed by Scozzafava at 29 percent and Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman at 23 percent,

For details, see this PDF http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf…

Crosstabs (also PDF) here http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf…

As for cross-tabs, be aware, the overall MoE is almost 4%, so the MoE for each sub-item would be greater.

Per the cross tabs, each candidate is now “leading” in their “home” regions (Scozzofova – West, Hoffman – Central, Owens – East), though Hoffman’s home in Lake Placid is at the edge of the region where Owens has a lead.

Owens is starting to consolidate D support – but has only 55% of Ds. Hoffman actually has a small lead among Is – but with 617 likely voters in the sample, the difference in raw numbers among Is would be very small.

      Owens        Scozzafava       Hoffman

D       55             17               10

R       19             40               27

I       28             24               31

89 thoughts on “NY-23 – Breaking – Owens leads! per Siena Poll, 10/15”

  1. … there are no words for how utterly delicious it will be. Just imagining the spin coming out of Michael Steele in the days thereafter is making me dizzy with elation.

  3. added bonus for us:  

    86% of Republicans have already made up their minds, but only 82% of Democrats.

  6. Owens will consolidate the Democratic base by election day and will easily top 40%, with an outside chance of reaching 50%.

    DeDe is out of money and the NRCC ads have been awful, so I expect her to crash hard.

    Hoffman, who has money and the help of the CfG acting as his “de facto NRCC,” will take a bunch of DeDe’s votes and make a spirited run, probably reaching the 30s.

    I’ll go so far as to say Owens’ biggest threat right now is Hoffman, not DeDe, since Hoffman is much closer to running a modern campaign than DeDe for whom the bottom has dropped out completely.

    The real problem for Republicans now is that they need the NRCC to abandon DeDe to give Hoffman a chance to win.  But will the NRCC do that?  They can’t and won’t flip and support Hoffman, but they can turn off the spigot on DeDe and sit on their hands the rest of the way.  DeDe then might just give up and stop campaigning, and Hoffman would have a chance to consolidate the Republican coalition.

    But the NRCC people are dingbats who seldom game out even conventional strategy very well, and this one is a lot trickier and anything but conventional.

    And further complicating things for Republicans is time:  it’s completely against them.  We’re just 19 days out, and Hoffman and CfG don’t have the resources of Owens and the DCCC, who are going to the mat for him.

    This is sooooooo much fun!

    And funnest of all is that we’re going to win this seat and completely turn the “Democrats are in trouble” narrative on its head!

  7. I’m beginning to think November 3rd will not be too bad for the Democrats. Here hoping to a late VA-Gov surge too, though I’m completely bullish on NJ and now this. Swapping a governorship for a House seat in ‘such a toxic environment’ isn’t the worst thing in the world to me.

    I just cant wait whenever Republicans collectively respond the next morning to the results like this:

  8. this is hilarious.  Once again, Democrats win with an assist from the CfG.

    ya know, it’s interesting.  I look at the top 5 districts that are likely to change hands in the House, and all I see are Republicans.  NY-23, LA-02, DE-AL, PA-06, and IL-10.  Bet money on it, those five seats are coming our way, by big margins too.  Of course, seats 6-10 contain some Democrats, but the fact that they have five more seats that are more vulnerable than even our most vulnerable seat says something.  Republicans aren’t out of the woods yet, and they sure as hell don’t have any chance of even getting remotely close to taking back the House, despite the panicky hallucinations of some pundits and even Democrats.

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