Benenson Strategy Group (D) for the DSCC (10/5-7, likely voters):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 50
Gilbert Baker (R): 37
Don’t know: 13Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 51
Kim Hendren (R): 37
Don’t know: 12
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Polls have truly been all over the place on this race so far — in recent months, Rasmussen found incumbent Blanche Lincoln in DOA territory, PPP found Lincoln neck-and-neck with her little-known opponents, and R2K found her with tolerable but sub-50% leads. Now, along comes a DSCC-commissioned poll that finds Lincoln with a double-digit advantage, even against her ostensibly toughest challenger, state Sen. Gilbert Baker.
Lincoln also clocks in with a 50% favorable, and 68% agreeing with the platitude that the new Agriculture chair “gets things done for Arkansas.” Even if this poll turns out to be a little overly optimistic, it still should challenge the coalescing conventional wisdom that Lincoln is coming into her re-election in this quickly-reddening state as an underdog. The full memo is below the fold.
RaceTracker: AR-Sen
She gets the benefit of running with Beebe at the top of the ticket
have been decimated the past few cycles, I don’t think they’re about to start knocking off incumbents any time soon. I’d be much more worried if this was an open seat, but even then, we’d probably get one of the congressmen to jump in and it would still tilt our way. Lincoln easily won re-election in 2004 despite Bush at the top of the ticket and a GOP governor. I just don’t think she’s any more vulnerable this year than 2004.
Considering R2K has essentially become an arm of the DSCC, it doesn’t surprise me that their polls are similar.
Passing some semblance of progressive health care reform would help Lincoln coalesce Democrats again. But I am eager to just wait for you the ads about Baker’s serving as a two time character witness for a Republican campaign staffer who had violently raped a woman. I am sure that will help him a ton.
that Baker, supposedly a much stronger candidate, is on the same level as Hendren, Mr. “that Jew”.
This is reassuring to an extent but still it’s a DSCC poll. Does anyone expect a partsian poll to have Lincoln behind?
She’s probably ok for reelection depending on the national tone and how much of an opponant Baker turns out to be.