Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
You know you want to.
102 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Good song, I just choose it because it was one of his most cynical and actively political songs, at least straight-forward. Pretty interesting guy, was a hard nosed cynic, sarcastic, highly anti-government. Favorite musician ever though, might be another one of his in a few weeks.
I wasn’t feeling Owens at first but I’m getting pretty excited at humiliating the GOP and getting one step closer to a 100% D delegation.
I want a chart ASAP!
It Rachel Maddow, Keith Olbermann, and Ed Schultz cover this race and go after Chris Christie (and there plenty on him) it will rile up the democratic base in New Jersey. We need to win this race. E-mail Rachel Maddow, Keith Olbermann, and Ed Schultz and ask them to cover this race please.
Branstad is in and Culver’s had a very rough stretch these past few weeks. I certainly hope the R2K poll Kos released today is on the mark, because if Branstad isn’t polling above 50 against Culver now, I like Culver’s chances of pulling this out.
If I assume R2K is off and the truth is a 10-15 point lead for Branstad today, I still think Branstad will take a hit when the spotlight turns to his very mediocre record as governor. The GOP is over-hyping him.
Does anyone have any of the polling numbers for these two New Jersey Gov Races
1993 James Florio vs Christine Todd Whitman
1977 Brendan Byrne vs Raymond Bateman
Has really got me thinking this could be a winnable race.
Maybe I am just hopefull, but if the Dems can bring it and pass some good reforms before the 2010 cycle, we could seriously take this seat.
I think that tells us what we need to know about their internal polls.
I’m not nearly as pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances in 2010 as a lot of people are (and basically every pundit.)
I think that in the Senate, we’re definitely going to see the loss of a few incumbents for the first time in two cycles but it’s not going to be significant. I think Reid is probably a goner because of his extremely low poll numbers against low-tier candidates. He certainly isn’t someone with low name-recognition either.
Dodd isn’t dead but could very probably lose. I think his poll numbers will pick up after a hopefully successful healthcare bill, and as the economy picks up further and his scandals loom further in the distance. Bennet and Lincoln are sort of toss-ups; I think it’s more likely Bennet loses than Lincoln. I really don’t think Illinois is seriously in play, and I expect Biden to clean up in Delaware once he declares his candidacy and stars campaigning. I think those losses are basically going to be completely offset by possible victories in New Hampshire, Kentucky, Missouri, and Ohio. There are small possibilities for both sides that I think are going to end up being the Nebraska/Kentucky/Lousiana races of 2010.
The House is a somewhat different story; I think there’ll definitely be double-digit losses but probably in the teens. The Democrats have several extremely solid pickup chances that’ll salve some of the burn in the South. To me, as a progressive, I don’t mind the trade-off of a few Bobby Brights and Gene Taylors (who for what it’s worth have more conservative records than quite a few Republicans) for pickups like DE-AL and PA-06, etc. that voted strongly for Obama.
I don’t see the Democrats losing either chamber or sustaining significant losses. As for the gubernatorial scene, we’ll probably lose states overall but gain in population if only because of California.
“State Sen. Ben Nesselhuf of Vermillion has filed paperwork to seek the Democratic nomination for secretary of state next year.
The office is now held by Republican Chris Nelson, who is prevented by term limits from seeking re-election.”
seems nice enough, but i doubt he’ll win. his district is in one of the most liberal parts of the state, so his races haven’t been that hard. the 08 one seemed tough at first, but wasn’t in the end. the lean of sodak in a republican leaning year will make it very hard to win. rep herseth sandlin even looks to be in for a tough race.
District 29, El Paso area. Solid Democrat, and a Democrat is vacating. We’ll likely see a Democrat from the State House try and move up.
Real implications; The Senator, Eliot Shapleigh will announce within the next 3 weeks if he is seeking statewide office in Texas, I am hearing Lt. Governor tossed around a lot today. IF Ronnie Earle could have been persuaded to pursue AG, and Schieffer were to get Gov and Shapleigh were in as Lt. Gov, we would have a relatively solid ticket. I doubt we’ll be that lucky though. Still, the quality of our challengers keeps improving every four years.
It didn’t get much coverage, but this week Dan Dumezich, arguably the GOP’s best potential candidate in an already pretty long-shot race, decided not to run against Evan Bayh:
This leaves the GOP field with three candidates – two unknowns and State Senator Marlin Stutzman, who’s only slightly less unknown and comes from a rural county in the northern part of the state. Stutzman has been wandering around Indiana trying to lap up votes at the likes of 9/12 meetings, but generally comes off as pretty hapless. If he and Bayh ever debated, Bayh would crush him. (Do a search for Stutzman on Youtube; he’s got “generic losing Republican” written all over him. No charisma, poorly organized, poor fundraiser, and not a very good speaker. I could see people voting for him for school board, but not for US Senate against an entrenched incumbent.)
Bayh also has an absolutely absurd $12.9 million CoH for this cycle, according to OpenSecrets.org, and hired Obama consultant Anita Dunn as his campaign manager way back in December.
Now, behind all the money, incumbency, and daddy’s good name Bayh shows signs of being a weak candidate. I’d love to see someone actually poll this race to see how strong he is in spite of the CW that he’s basically invincible. A lot of Hoosiers are getting tired of his overinflated ego, lack of accomplishments, and constant futile runs for President, but with that said, Marlin Stutzman is hardly a convincing alternative. It’s going to take a seismic shift in political environment to change this race, or a top-shelf GOP candidate that basically doesn’t exist. (Except for maybe Mitch Daniels, but he’s on the record as not interested in Bayh’s seat, and has problems of his own right now thanks to backlash from his administrations efforts to privatize the state welfare system.)
Much as I dislike Bayh, and despite what I may have said before, it’ll be difficult for him to lose this one. I wouldn’t put it past him to somehow manage a loss anyway in much the same way his protege Bart Peterson managed to lose a sure re-election to Indy Mayor in 2007, but right now the ball is firmly in Bayh’s court and it’ll be spectacularly difficult for him to lose, even in spite of himself.
In its endorsement, the Inquirer basically hints that it would have endorsed Christie if he wasn’t so non-specific with his vague promises to cut taxes and spending, while “dodging fundamental policy questions.”
The Inquirer also praised Daggett’s property tax plan, describing it as vastly superior to the homestead rebate gimmick that both of his opponents would continue. In spite of this, the Inquirer decided that Daggett’s platform was too sketchy to get their endorsement. So instead they went ahead and endorsed Corzine, a major proponent of the rebate gimmick they’d just criticized.
They then proceeded to criticize Corzine’s governorship:
On finances, the governor took a principled stand for funding pension obligations, only to have to retreat from it amid the downturn. He budgeted cautiously, but then made exceptions under political and economic pressure. He put forward but abandoned a controversial proposal to retire state debt. He won important concessions from state-employee unions, but often seemed too cozy with labor.
They also decried his failure to achieve real property tax relief and his coziness with the political machines that still dominate New Jersey politics. In spite of this, they somehow come to the conclusion that these “imperfect victories are nevertheless remarkable.” In my opinion, this is preposterous logic in a hamhanded endorsement.
to the Inquirer’s endorsement of Gov. Corzine that I described above.
Anyone know how much Sarah Palin has raised for her PAC so far?
on November 14 to raise money for gay marriage foe Kent Sorenson, who is running against Staci Appel in Iowa Senate district 37. It will be a banner race, because Appel’s husband is one of the seven Iowa Supreme Court justices.
I wonder what a so-called libertarian like Ron Paul has against gay marriage.
Christie gets The Courier News (4th largest paper in NJ) and The Home News Tribune (6th largest).
Harry Teague in my view has had an outstanding voting record and Steve Pearce was one of the biggest goons in Congress. I hope some more financial resources get into this one. I know Teague can self-finance, but folks should go to bat for him if they can to defeat Pearce.
I am only interested in the Georgia Governor’s race is due the fact that this has got to be the dumbest thing I have ever seen.
Who in their right god damn mind thought this was a good idea?! Its corny, and pathetic.
Im very interested in know the first polls for VT-Gov, RI-Gov and AK-Gov races. They are races so unpredictables without a first serious poll.
Of course, NJ-Gov and VA-Gov are very interesting in this moment.
but I remember it really looked like Florio was going down big, 5-10 points, and then it turned out he only lost by a point
In 1993, incumbent Gov. James Florio was widely viewed as vulnerable due to his wildly unpopular tax hikes. In spite of this, an August 1993 Rutgers poll showed Florio beating the GOP nominee, former Somerset County freeholder Christine Todd Whitman, 49% to 40%. In this case, it was the Republican who came from behind, eking out a 49% to 48% win. The tiny remainder was split among various third-party and independent candidates, none of whom managed to garner more than .4%.
The 1977 race was a classic come-from-behind. The Democratic incumbent, Gov. Brendan Byrne, faced dismal approval ratings: 28% said he was an excellent or good governor, 39% considered him fair, and 29% said he was doing a poor job. Byrne won renomination with only 30% of the vote. An August 1977 Rutgers poll showed the GOP nominee, State Senator Raymond Bateman, beating Byrne 46% to 39%. Byrne ultimately defeated Bateman 56% to 42%.
Good song, I just choose it because it was one of his most cynical and actively political songs, at least straight-forward. Pretty interesting guy, was a hard nosed cynic, sarcastic, highly anti-government. Favorite musician ever though, might be another one of his in a few weeks.
I wasn’t feeling Owens at first but I’m getting pretty excited at humiliating the GOP and getting one step closer to a 100% D delegation.
I want a chart ASAP!
It Rachel Maddow, Keith Olbermann, and Ed Schultz cover this race and go after Chris Christie (and there plenty on him) it will rile up the democratic base in New Jersey. We need to win this race. E-mail Rachel Maddow, Keith Olbermann, and Ed Schultz and ask them to cover this race please.
Branstad is in and Culver’s had a very rough stretch these past few weeks. I certainly hope the R2K poll Kos released today is on the mark, because if Branstad isn’t polling above 50 against Culver now, I like Culver’s chances of pulling this out.
If I assume R2K is off and the truth is a 10-15 point lead for Branstad today, I still think Branstad will take a hit when the spotlight turns to his very mediocre record as governor. The GOP is over-hyping him.
Does anyone have any of the polling numbers for these two New Jersey Gov Races
1993 James Florio vs Christine Todd Whitman
1977 Brendan Byrne vs Raymond Bateman
Has really got me thinking this could be a winnable race.
Maybe I am just hopefull, but if the Dems can bring it and pass some good reforms before the 2010 cycle, we could seriously take this seat.
I think that tells us what we need to know about their internal polls.
I’m not nearly as pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances in 2010 as a lot of people are (and basically every pundit.)
I think that in the Senate, we’re definitely going to see the loss of a few incumbents for the first time in two cycles but it’s not going to be significant. I think Reid is probably a goner because of his extremely low poll numbers against low-tier candidates. He certainly isn’t someone with low name-recognition either.
Dodd isn’t dead but could very probably lose. I think his poll numbers will pick up after a hopefully successful healthcare bill, and as the economy picks up further and his scandals loom further in the distance. Bennet and Lincoln are sort of toss-ups; I think it’s more likely Bennet loses than Lincoln. I really don’t think Illinois is seriously in play, and I expect Biden to clean up in Delaware once he declares his candidacy and stars campaigning. I think those losses are basically going to be completely offset by possible victories in New Hampshire, Kentucky, Missouri, and Ohio. There are small possibilities for both sides that I think are going to end up being the Nebraska/Kentucky/Lousiana races of 2010.
The House is a somewhat different story; I think there’ll definitely be double-digit losses but probably in the teens. The Democrats have several extremely solid pickup chances that’ll salve some of the burn in the South. To me, as a progressive, I don’t mind the trade-off of a few Bobby Brights and Gene Taylors (who for what it’s worth have more conservative records than quite a few Republicans) for pickups like DE-AL and PA-06, etc. that voted strongly for Obama.
I don’t see the Democrats losing either chamber or sustaining significant losses. As for the gubernatorial scene, we’ll probably lose states overall but gain in population if only because of California.
“State Sen. Ben Nesselhuf of Vermillion has filed paperwork to seek the Democratic nomination for secretary of state next year.
The office is now held by Republican Chris Nelson, who is prevented by term limits from seeking re-election.”
http://www.ksfy.com/news/local…
It would be nice if the Democrats win this.
seems nice enough, but i doubt he’ll win. his district is in one of the most liberal parts of the state, so his races haven’t been that hard. the 08 one seemed tough at first, but wasn’t in the end. the lean of sodak in a republican leaning year will make it very hard to win. rep herseth sandlin even looks to be in for a tough race.
District 29, El Paso area. Solid Democrat, and a Democrat is vacating. We’ll likely see a Democrat from the State House try and move up.
Real implications; The Senator, Eliot Shapleigh will announce within the next 3 weeks if he is seeking statewide office in Texas, I am hearing Lt. Governor tossed around a lot today. IF Ronnie Earle could have been persuaded to pursue AG, and Schieffer were to get Gov and Shapleigh were in as Lt. Gov, we would have a relatively solid ticket. I doubt we’ll be that lucky though. Still, the quality of our challengers keeps improving every four years.
It didn’t get much coverage, but this week Dan Dumezich, arguably the GOP’s best potential candidate in an already pretty long-shot race, decided not to run against Evan Bayh:
http://www.howeypolitics.com/2…
This leaves the GOP field with three candidates – two unknowns and State Senator Marlin Stutzman, who’s only slightly less unknown and comes from a rural county in the northern part of the state. Stutzman has been wandering around Indiana trying to lap up votes at the likes of 9/12 meetings, but generally comes off as pretty hapless. If he and Bayh ever debated, Bayh would crush him. (Do a search for Stutzman on Youtube; he’s got “generic losing Republican” written all over him. No charisma, poorly organized, poor fundraiser, and not a very good speaker. I could see people voting for him for school board, but not for US Senate against an entrenched incumbent.)
Bayh also has an absolutely absurd $12.9 million CoH for this cycle, according to OpenSecrets.org, and hired Obama consultant Anita Dunn as his campaign manager way back in December.
Now, behind all the money, incumbency, and daddy’s good name Bayh shows signs of being a weak candidate. I’d love to see someone actually poll this race to see how strong he is in spite of the CW that he’s basically invincible. A lot of Hoosiers are getting tired of his overinflated ego, lack of accomplishments, and constant futile runs for President, but with that said, Marlin Stutzman is hardly a convincing alternative. It’s going to take a seismic shift in political environment to change this race, or a top-shelf GOP candidate that basically doesn’t exist. (Except for maybe Mitch Daniels, but he’s on the record as not interested in Bayh’s seat, and has problems of his own right now thanks to backlash from his administrations efforts to privatize the state welfare system.)
Much as I dislike Bayh, and despite what I may have said before, it’ll be difficult for him to lose this one. I wouldn’t put it past him to somehow manage a loss anyway in much the same way his protege Bart Peterson managed to lose a sure re-election to Indy Mayor in 2007, but right now the ball is firmly in Bayh’s court and it’ll be spectacularly difficult for him to lose, even in spite of himself.
In its endorsement, the Inquirer basically hints that it would have endorsed Christie if he wasn’t so non-specific with his vague promises to cut taxes and spending, while “dodging fundamental policy questions.”
The Inquirer also praised Daggett’s property tax plan, describing it as vastly superior to the homestead rebate gimmick that both of his opponents would continue. In spite of this, the Inquirer decided that Daggett’s platform was too sketchy to get their endorsement. So instead they went ahead and endorsed Corzine, a major proponent of the rebate gimmick they’d just criticized.
They then proceeded to criticize Corzine’s governorship:
They also decried his failure to achieve real property tax relief and his coziness with the political machines that still dominate New Jersey politics. In spite of this, they somehow come to the conclusion that these “imperfect victories are nevertheless remarkable.” In my opinion, this is preposterous logic in a hamhanded endorsement.
to the Inquirer’s endorsement of Gov. Corzine that I described above.
http://www.philly.com/philly/b…
Anyone know how much Sarah Palin has raised for her PAC so far?
on November 14 to raise money for gay marriage foe Kent Sorenson, who is running against Staci Appel in Iowa Senate district 37. It will be a banner race, because Appel’s husband is one of the seven Iowa Supreme Court justices.
I wonder what a so-called libertarian like Ron Paul has against gay marriage.
http://www.miamiherald.com/new…
http://deedsforvirginia.com/pa…
Not entirely surprising, but I was fairly blown away by how full-throated it was.
Combined with Obama’s last minute campaign swing, this has me feeling a little more bullish than I was even 24 hours ago.
has been bringing in some congressman from California to stump for him.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/j…
http://www.flickr.com/photos/j…
http://www.nysun.com/opinion/b…
Corzine gets The New York Times.
Christie gets The Courier News (4th largest paper in NJ) and The Home News Tribune (6th largest).
Harry Teague in my view has had an outstanding voting record and Steve Pearce was one of the biggest goons in Congress. I hope some more financial resources get into this one. I know Teague can self-finance, but folks should go to bat for him if they can to defeat Pearce.
I am only interested in the Georgia Governor’s race is due the fact that this has got to be the dumbest thing I have ever seen.
Who in their right god damn mind thought this was a good idea?! Its corny, and pathetic.
Im very interested in know the first polls for VT-Gov, RI-Gov and AK-Gov races. They are races so unpredictables without a first serious poll.
Of course, NJ-Gov and VA-Gov are very interesting in this moment.
http://www.dailypress.com/news…
They endorsed Tim Kaine in ’05.
but I remember it really looked like Florio was going down big, 5-10 points, and then it turned out he only lost by a point
In 1993, incumbent Gov. James Florio was widely viewed as vulnerable due to his wildly unpopular tax hikes. In spite of this, an August 1993 Rutgers poll showed Florio beating the GOP nominee, former Somerset County freeholder Christine Todd Whitman, 49% to 40%. In this case, it was the Republican who came from behind, eking out a 49% to 48% win. The tiny remainder was split among various third-party and independent candidates, none of whom managed to garner more than .4%.
The 1977 race was a classic come-from-behind. The Democratic incumbent, Gov. Brendan Byrne, faced dismal approval ratings: 28% said he was an excellent or good governor, 39% considered him fair, and 29% said he was doing a poor job. Byrne won renomination with only 30% of the vote. An August 1977 Rutgers poll showed the GOP nominee, State Senator Raymond Bateman, beating Byrne 46% to 39%. Byrne ultimately defeated Bateman 56% to 42%.