Quinnipiac (10/12-18, registered voters, 8/12-17 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 31
Charlie Crist (R): 51
Undecided: 14Kendrick Meek (D): 36
Marco Rubio (R): 33
Undecided: 28
(MoE: ±3%)Charlie Crist (R): 50 (55)
Marco Rubio (R): 35 (26)
Undecided: 12 (18)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Alex Sink (D): 32 (34)
Bill McCollum (R): 36 (38)
Undecided: 27 (25)
(MoE: ±3%)Bill McCollum (R): 43
Paula Dockery (R): 7
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±4.9%)
There has been a general sense of alarm leaking out of the Charlie Crist camp in the last week or so, and it seems to have mostly to do with that alleged Chamber of Commerce poll that gave Crist only a 44-30 edge over Marco Rubio (although that poll has yet to be released). Well, the alarms will probably get cranked up a notch, now we have a public poll that shows almost the same thing: Quinnipiac’s new Florida poll shows Rubio pulling within almost a close a margin, trailing Crist by 15. Although here, there are fewer undecideds and Crist is still over the 50% mark — but given the trajectory of the two candidates, and Rubio’s sudden fundraising competitiveness, Crist seems poised to continue losing ground. Crist may be able to take some comfort in his still-high favorables, though: 58/30 (although Rubio is liked too and has room for growth, at 24/11).
Although Quinnipiac has polled Florida a number of times, this is their first time running general election head-to-heads. The 20-point spread between Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek isn’t a surprise; it’s right in line with Pollster.com’s 50-31 average on the race. What is a surprise is the Meek/Rubio matchup, which Meek actually leads by 3. That’s quite different than the 43-30 edge that Rubio enjoyed in August according to Rasmussen, who seem to be the only pollster who’ve been testing Meek vs. Rubio lately (although R2K found Meek beating Rubio 31-22 way back in January). I think it may be time for us to start rooting for the Club for Democratic Growth to get involved on Rubio’s behalf.
The governor’s race still looks pretty sleepy, with little movement from last time (although what movement occurred benefits Sink, who’s down by 4 now), and lots of undecideds (in fact, an increasing number of them). Alex Sink is still surprisingly little-known, at 23/8, but she’s Balloon Boy and Octomom rolled into one compared with state Sen. Paula Dockery, who looks poised to enter the Republican primary against Bill McCollum but comes in with favorables of 5/3.
that he should exercise the Specter option.
Oh well: his mistake.
the only person I’ve ever seen with a positive approval rating at 5%.
He needs to get other sources or flex his own muscle to keep him ahead of Rubio and introduce himself while Rubio and Crist defeat each other. He needs to prepare for Rubio, because he doesn’t stand much chance against Crist. I think it’d be interesting to look at the racial breakdown and see. It’s a safe bet that Meek would get 90% of the black vote. Would Meek edge Rubio among Hispanics? Or could Rubio edge him here? In both those cases what percentage of the white vote would Meek need to win?
(Mid-terms are killing me the next two weeks, very little free time. I would love to sit and crunch numbers on this, now that Crist looks vulnerable to Rubio)
“I beat the Democrat by 20 points. Marco loses by 3.”
The end.
Crist did us a favor by campaigning with Obama for the stimulus when there was no reason for him to come out and support it. He’d be a pretty damn good Senator Id imagine, being quite moderate and willing to compromise to get something passed.
He doesn’t deserve to get beat by someone who has to kiss ass to Red State to get the energy behind his campaign that he needs.
Id much rather him lose to a Democrat in the general and us get the seat by beating their best. But alas, that’s politics. Just ask Specter!
Go Rubio (ugh…. that hurt)
On the one hand, having another moderate republican would he great sue tithe fact that we can claim bi-partisan support for bills when we have three moderate repubs voting with us, on the other hand, after Burris has his term end, there will be no African American in the senate. Seeing Meek in there as a reliable D would also be a plus. For right now, I guess I am rooting for rubio in the primary, because the sooner the republicans learn that their ultra conservative ways won’t lead to victory, they will likely splinter or drasticly move it’s party left out of fringe land.
Then again, if rubio DOES win, we will be dealing with nothing new…
Several commenters back then declared him the victor. They called this prediction “realism.” But predicting complicated races this far out is like eating peas with a knife. Hard to do.
Even if Crist wins the primary, isn’t it possible that Rubio will have scuffed him up? In the same vein, by the end of the primary isn’t it likely that Crist will be less “moderate” than he seemed as Governor?
I would guess that if Crist is ultimately elected to the Senate, he’ll be less moderate than either Snowe or Collins, who actually haven’t been much help to us lately. He might be on the order of Lugar, Graham, or McCain–i.e., not crazy like DeMint, Coburn, or Inhofe, but not really a frequent vote for progressive positions either.
I’m eager to learn more about Meek. To the extent that liberals have a hope in this race, he’s it.
If rubio beats Crist then this seat Is back In play for the
Democrats.And a year from the election and a dead heat In
the governor’s race Is a good sign.Remember the last time
a Democrat was elected governor was back in 1994 when
lawton Chiles beat back Jeb Bush despite the Republican
sweep of the year.
Also remember back In 2008 Crist put a bunch of people back on the voter rolls and extended early voting hours.
That and the embrace of Obama with the stimulas could hurt
him.Which Is what Democrats should want.
But if he does lose, it wil be horribly, “flamingly”, brutally, extraordinally personally ugly… and I’d expect Crist to endorse Meek as a result, with Meek beating Rubio.
Go Rubio….
I still maintain a Rubio defeat of Crist will make him a very formidable force on the national stage and may make him the GOP’s new Obama. I don’t know much about him and for all of it, he could have some major skeletons that will sink him, but the guy is attractive, articulate, young and Hispanic. If he beats Crist, he’ll beat Meek and the Roves and Bushes are lining up behind him as their ticket back to the White House in 2016. Regardless of his ideology, (he talks like an unreconstructed conservative), he sells it well and will have broad appeal to the growing Hispanic populace, as well as economically conservative swing voters, while not alienating the ever shrinking yet financially powerful white southern male crowd that rule the current GOP.
Dems are better off with him losing to Crist than him running against Meek or replacing a retiring Bill Nelson in 2010. Forget Pawlenty, Jindal, Palin and co., or at least the wiser heads in the GOP will permit them to lose to Obama in 2012, but Rubio and incoming Gov. Bob McDonnell of VA will be the folks to watch in 2016 and right now (though very early and who knows what will happen), I’m not seeing a lot of fresh face Dems able to successfully carry on after Obama in 2016 against these two.
This is incredible. A state representative becoming competitive with a popular governor. Republicans have lost their fricking minds.
If Rubio beats Crist, and then loses to Meek, I wonder if something will finally snap amongst the establishment GOP and they will declare war on the teabaggers and the Club for Growth that have cost them one winnable race after another. Gilchrest, Walberg, Sali…those are small potatoes. But a US Senate seat? The national Republican bigwigs would go nuclear.