Two new polls out today paint a disturbingly similar picture of the state of the New Jersey gubernatorial race.
From PPP:
After his lead was reduced to a single point in a Public Policy Polling survey two weeks ago, Chris Christie has now widened his advantage to four.Christie’s at 42% in the newest poll to 38% for Jon Corzine and 13% for Chris Daggett.
Earlier in the race it had appeared that Daggett was hurting Christie more, but now supporters of the independent candidate say by a 44-32 margin that their second choice would be Corzine. 43% of voters planning to support him are Democrats while only 9% are Republicans.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
This comes only about an hour after the latest Rasmussen survey was released showing nearly identical topline numbers – that is, prior to the pollster’s re-allocation of Daggett votes:
The initial preferences were Christie 42%, Corzine 38%, and Daggett 14%. After Daggett-supporters and undecideds were pushed, it became Christie 46%, Corzine 43%, and Daggett 7%. Last week, Corzine had led by 37%-36%-16% on first preferences, and Christie was up by 41%-39%-11% after people were pushed. The margin of error is ±3%.
Corzine wouldn’t have Obama, Clinton, Caroline Kennedy, Ed Rendell, and every other high-profile Dem under the sun stumping for him if he weren’t nervous about his GOTV effort. Christie probably is ahead among likely voters, and Corzine needs massive GOTV to stop that train.
The good news for Corzine…
– If he can shore up Dems, these #’s will shoot up; he’s only at 67% here, and should be able to AT LEAST cross 75% on election night. Anything above 80%, and he probably wins.
– Likewise, he should be able to shore up 80% of black voters, and he’s not even crossing 70% here.
The bad news for Corzine…
– he’s virtually tied with Christie among women. He really oughta be up by double-digits here.
– Christie’s holding onto a strong 20% lead among Independents.
– Chris Daggett appears to be stalling in the polls, giving Christie enough anti-Corzine vote to win.
– he needs to hold Christie to a single-digit lead among white voters. He isn’t.
– he’s back below 40% in the polls. If he’s not above this mark heading into election night, it’s hard to see him winning.
Particularly Monmouth. Will say though that these suggest that the collapse of Daggett a la Suffolk would now help Corzine since he is the second choice of those voters.