NY-23 Roundup

• One more poll released in this race today, and like yesterday’s Club for Growth poll, it’s another poll from a Republican pollster on behalf of a fringe-right group: Neighborhood Research (the Rick Shaftan-run New Jersey-based pollsters who were right-winger Steve Lonegan’s pollster in the New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary) for the Minuteman PAC (the Minutemen have enough money to commission a poll? that may be the most newsworthy thing in the whole story…). They put up similar numbers as yesterday’s CfG poll, with Conservative Doug Hoffman leading at 34, Democrat Bill Owens at 29, and Republican Dede Scozzafava dwindling at 14. At any rate, now Pollster.com has enough data to put together some trendlines for the race (no surprise: Owens and Hoffman going up fast, Scozzafava nosediving). There’s also some interesting back-and-forth between Nate Silver and Pollster’s Mark Blumenthal on just how much salt to take these two polls with.

• In the endorsement parade, Hoffman continues to rack ’em in, from Representatives that no one in the 23rd has ever heard of — Georgia’s John Linder, worried that Scozzafava would give Nancy Pelosi bipartisan cover, and SSP’s favorite punching bag, Oklahoma’s Tom Cole, who, reprising his role as master strategist, understands that Scozzafava has no reasonable shot of winning anymore. The New York Post‘s very conservative editorial page also endorsed Hoffman, and Fred Thompson (who was one of the first name-brand Republicans to endorse Hoffman) awoke from his slumbers long enough to cut a TV spot on behalf of Hoffman. Even Michael Barone (editor of the Almanac of American Politics) got in the act today, playing the ACORN card against Scozzafava.

• Newt Gingrich, however, is left holding the establishment GOP’s standard by himself and is doubling down on Scozzafava, decrying the “purge” and saying that supporting a spoiler is the best way to strengthen Pelosi’s hand. The Hill picks up on this growing divide today when looking at NY-23 in the context of the GOP’s 0-for-4 streak at holding contested House special elections (IL-14, MS-01, LA-06, NY-20 — with the first three all seeing nasty, contested primaries, and even NY-20 distinguished by an insider pick that didn’t ignite the base).

• Finally, kudos to our own silver spring, whose now-seminal diary “The Amazing History of NY-23” (if one can accuse an SSP diary of actually being “seminal”) showed how the core of the 23rd hasn’t been represented by a Democrat since 1850. That diary got a citation in the New York Times today.

87 thoughts on “NY-23 Roundup”

  2. to Nate Silver’s suspicions that there’s something fishy about that CfG sponsored poll.

    So apparently the effects of Scozzafava’s lack of funds, along with Palin’s endorsement of Hoffman, is really showing up in the responses.

  4. It won’t won the race for her, but could it take in some potential Hoffman/ Owens voters (with onebeing affected more than the other)?  I doubt it’ll matter but I want to throw it out for discussion.  

  5. How politically ignorant is this man?  I can’t wait till Cuomo beats him in a primary and he’s out of the picture.  

  7. Owens: 45%

    Scozzafava: 32%

    Hoffman: 23%

    Ignoring the fundraising, conservative anger notwithstanding, meltdown aside…Scozzafava is still on the Republican line, and Hoffman is on the Conservative line.  I’ll believe a second-place third-party finish here in this purple district when I see it.

  8. from the current version of http://www.watertowndailytimes…

    First for the Minuteman poll –

    The group announced no margin or error for this poll, although I’d guess it’d have to be 6 percent or more. It also provided no online copy of the questions it asked, which, to me, is a red flag.

    Second, the CfG ads now ignore Scozzafava

    Club for Growth launched a television ad Tuesday in the Watertown, Syracuse and Burlington, Vt. markets on behalf of Doug Hoffman, their endorsed candidate in the 23rd Congressional District race.

    Hoffman now also has endorsements from Jim DeMint and Dana Rohrabacher.

    Also Gov Patterson apparantly can’t tell the difference between troops at Fort Drum and jobs in Plattsburgh.

    Several local R’s have asked Hoffman to drop out,

    This time it’s Jefferson County Republican Party Chairman Don Coon and St. Lawrence GOP Chairman Nancy Martin, who both support Republican Dede Scozzafava, asking Doug Hoffman, the Conservative candidate to drop out.

    There’s a link to the names of 5 R members of the NYS Assembly who also asked Hoffman to drop out.

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