207 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  2. My final (maybe!) predictions for Tuesday-

    VA-Gov-

    56% McDonnell

    43% Deeds

    1% other

    NJ-Gov-

    44% Christie

    44% Corzine

    7% Daggett

    5% other

    NY-23-

    40% Hoffman

    39% Owens

    21% DeDe

    CA-10

    52% Garmendi

    43% Harmer

    5% other

  4. Governor: Yeah, it’s gone, although I think it will end up being a little closer than the 15-17 point margin the polls are showing. I’d say 56-44 McDonnell.

    Lt. Governor: This is the statewide race to watch. Jody Wagner will be leading the rest of the statewide ticket, and if she keeps it close enough (or, in what would be quite an upset, wins), she’ll probably be a contender for Governor in 2013.

    Attorney General: What a wasted opportunity this was. The Democrats in Fairfax had better get their act together to win Cuccinelli’s Senate seat in the ensuing special election.

    House of Delegates: I’m forecasting a net 5 seat gain for the Republicans. Given that Deeds is still doing relatively okay in Northern Virginia while losing the rest of the state badly, I think some of the vulnerable NoVa Delegates will hold on, while Delegates in the rest of the state get washed out.

  5. Other than that it’s pretty important. It will decide the partisan balance of the court, and the Republican is apparently a nut.

  6. I’ve already talked about the special elections in my diary.

    I’m finally interested in the Atlanta mayor’s race now that Mary Norwood is being accused of being a shadow Republican.

    I’m also interested in the Marietta mayor’s race.  I’d like to give now former State Rep. Steve Tumlin (R-but this is a non-partisan race) another defeat and stop him from trying to get his old seat back or going on to other things.

  9. Republican Christopher Christie has a seven point lead, 43%-35%, over Gov. Jon Corzine among likely voters, with 8% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan.  

  12. On Twitter today PPP said

    “In NJ roughly 1,100,000 Obama voters staying home to just 640,000 McCain voters. In Va. approximately 1,080,000 Obama voters staying home to just 765,000 McCain voters.If this trend is the same for 2010 Dems really could lose the House.”

    First of all in 2010 many of the house candidates in vulnerable seats will be way stronger candidates than Creigh Deeds and will be more liked than Corzine. Thus turnout will probably be higher for them and also they will have a high turnout than an off year election. These are the following house seats that the GOP will be heavily targeting that I see as likely to survive.

    Halvorson, Altmire, Murphy, Titus, Dahlkemper, Driehaus, Kirkpatrick, Markey, Heinrich, Teague, Boccieri, McMahon, Himes, Grayson, Nye, Kratovil, Adler, Shea-Porter, Giffords, Carney

  14. Besides NJ-Gov and NY-23 and ME-Question 1 (I’m not counting VA-Gov or NYC-Mayor….those aren’t races), I’m also watching some local races out here:

    Washington State Referendum 71: pro-equality side should easily win:  55-45.

    King County Exec (the county where Seattle is):  Constintine (D): 51%

    Hutchinson (R): 49%

    Seattle Mayor:  who knows!!?!?!??!  Two terrible Democratic candidates running against each other!

    Even though for me, the race I’m watching most closely of the big 3 is Maine Question #1.  Hoping and praying for:

    48% Yes (anti-marriage equality)

    52% No (Pro-marrirage equality)

  15. Similar to the DK poll. Don’t have time for a diary this weekend on the subject – PDF with internals here – http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf…

    The internals are strikingly similar. Siena polled 704 likely voters Oct 27-29.

    Strangely enough, when voters were asked who will win:

    “Who will win is too close to call, however, 37 percent of voters, irrespective of who they’re supporting, say they think Owens will win, compared to 22 percent who think Hoffman will win and 20 percent who think Scozzafava will win,” Greenberg said.

  16. http://www.watertowndailytimes…

    “Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.

    The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate.”

  17. VA:

    McDonnell 58

    Deeds 41

    McDonnell wins Northern Virginia in a shocker, 52-47.

    NJ:

    Christie 43

    Corzine  43

    Daggett  14

    Shades of 1993 when Florio’s strong comeback at the end fell short.

    NY-23

    Owens 43

    Hoffman 37

    Dede 23

    I think Hoffman has peaked.

    Gay marriage in Maine

    No (keep gay marriage law) 52

    Yes 48

  19. All Hoffman needs to do is run up the score with Republicans, and he’s got this thing. His lead among Independents will just make the margin all the bigger.

    11/3 is looking like a potentially-brutal night for Dems.

  20. Washington’s oracles of conventional wisdom often infuriate me precisely because they so often get it right.

    ===

    Presently Congressional Quarterly considers eleven seats as “tossups” looking ahead to 2010.  

    Of these, five are held by first term Democrats who according to Dr. Dean support a robust public option and represent states that voted for W, but switched to Presidential candidate Obama.  

    These are Alan Grayson from Florida’s 8th; Mary Jo Kilroy from Ohio’s 15th; Betsy Markey from Colorado’s 4th; Tom Perriello from Virginia’s 5th; and Harry Teague from New Mexico’s 2nd.

    Similarly, the Cook Political Report places twelve races in its “Democratic Toss Up” category.

    Like Congressional Quarterly, Cook names Grayson, Kilroy, Markey, Perriello, and Teague.  

    But Cook also names Steve Driehaus from Ohio’s 1st another public option supporter, says Dr. Dean and adds the open seat race in New Hampshire’s 2nd (the Hodes district).

    The Rothenberg Political Report identifies 14 races as “Pure Toss-Up”.

    Rothenberg’s list includes Driehaus, Grayson, Kilroy, Teague, Periello, and the open seat in New Hampshire.  

    Rothenberg adds Carol Shea-Porter from New Hampshire’s 1st, also public option supporter according to Dr. Dean.

    I am interested in the fortunes of Grayson, Kilroy, Perriello, and Teague.  

    And Driehaus, Markey, and Shea-Porter.  

    And I am interested in the New Hampshire open seat race.

    ===

    I am also interested in seven challenger races  in districts where (1) electoral votes went for Bush, then Obama and where (2) the districts were carried by Obama but by Republicans in Congressional candidates.

    The Republican Congressmembers at issue are Ileana Ros-Lehtinen from Florida’s 18th, Bill Young from Florida’s 10th, Tom Latham from Iowa’s 4th , Lee Terry from Nebraska 2nd, Pat Tiberi from Ohio’s 12th, Randy Forbes from Virginia’s 4th, and Frank Wolf from Virginia’s 10th.

  23. Chet Culver announced more details about budget cuts for the current fiscal year. Although Iowa’s not doing as badly as many other states, Republicans are slamming alleged Democratic “overspending.” The 2010 budget was based on March revenue estimates from a Revenue Estimating Conference, as required by Iowa law. It turns out that the revenues are falling way below those projections, but that’s not Culver’s fault. It would be idiotic to cut government spending by more than you have to during a severe recession. Republicans are claiming Democrats should have assumed revenues would fall further when they drafted the 2010 budget, but that’s not how Iowa’s budgeting process works.

    In more amusing news from the week, there was a Republican fundraiser and straw poll in Allamakee county, way up in the NE corner of Iowa. Branstad was a no-show (he’s been avoiding events where he would have to appear alongside other candidates) and finished fifth in the straw poll of 60-some GOP activists. The winner was State Representative Rod Roberts, who is also an ordained minister. Vander Plaats was planning to come to the Allamakee event but couldn’t make it because his son was ill; he finished a close second in the straw poll. The young Christian Fong of Cedar Rapids was third, and State Representative Chris Rants was fourth.

    I know you can’t read too much into a straw poll, but it seems like Branstad has some work to do with the Republican base.

  26. Here they are:

    VA-GOV

    McDonnel 55%

    Deeds 43%

    Deeds barely wins NOVA, does better than Obama in the southwestern part of the state but is CRUSHED in Hamptons Roads and definitely gets less than 40% of the vote in Virginia Beach.

    NJ-GOV

    Corzine 43%

    Christe 40%

    Daggett/other 17%

    I believe Corzine will be crushed in the shore and NW New Jersey but should win solidly in the cities.

    More on New Jersey Governor http://swingstateproject.com/s…

    ME Ban on Equal Marriage Rights

    Against discrimination of same sex couples 51.5%

    For discrimination of same sex couples 48.5%

    A recent poll had the pro gay marriage forces winning by nine points. Overall, this will be a close one with a slight Prop 8 effect. With Prop 8, the last few polls had the no side leading by a couple of points. I believe some people did not want to expose their hatred of same sex couples so they said they were voting no on Prop 8. I think the Prop 8 effect should subtract a few points.

    NY-23

    It is too early to tell where Scoffaza’s supporters go.

    CA-10

    Garamendi 55%

    Karmer 45%

  27. My “who I’m rooting for” cheat sheet:

    HD-58: Bell, then Johnson, the McPherson

    HD-75: James

    HD-129: Davis

    HD-141: Black, then Kidd

    HD-159: Purcell

    SD-01: Hair

    SD-35: Torrey Johnson, Sneed, James, Atterbury, Jackson, Crane, Lynch

    Atlanta Mayor: Reed, then Borders

    Conyers Mayor: Harvey

    Kennesaw Council Post 5: Cullins

    Marietta Mayor: Bolton

    Marietta Council Ward 5: Dodd

    Powder Springs Council 3: Hudson

  28. State Rep. Ed DeLaney is one of the really good guys of Indiana politics.  He represents a diverse, mostly affluent swingish urban/suburban district I used to live in, and his wife Anne DeLaney has been a major player in the Democratic Party here for thirty years.  I’ve had the opportunity to meet both of them on a few occasions.

    Rep. DeLaney is also an attorney, and this morning was apparently going to meet with a new client.  The guy who met him beat him senseless, and apparently tried to shoot him, but the gun wouldn’t fire.  It looks like he’ll be fine, and the lunatic that beat him was captured (I guess he was still beating on DeLaney when the cops showed up), and is among other things being charged with attempted murder.

    Best wishes for a full and quick recovery.

  29. Christie up by only 1, Daggett’s support is in a free-fall, his negatives have shot up.

    One difference: Christie’s favorability numbers have dramatically improved from 40% favorable and 41% unfavorable in mid-October to 44% Favorable and 36% unfavorable

    Mid-October in ()

    Christie 43% (39)

    Corzine 42% (39)

    Daggett 8% (14%)

    http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin…

  33.  I’m just curious about what you think about the Maine inititive. From my feeling, our side should probably win but still, the Conservatives might get it together and surprise us. The good news (or possibly bad news) is that I just did some phone banking for No on 1 and most of the people I spoke to were supporters who already got called by No on 1. It’s good that alot of people were working on No on 1 but it might annoy people so much so they might just not vote or even vote Yes on 1. That happened a bit in the Virginia Gubernatorial primary with McAuliffe.

    Anyway, the extra phone banking people for Maine should be helpful because they might remind people to vote and perhaps only a couple people will vote differently in retaliaton to the calls.

  36. In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.

    I expected the numbers to be bad, but still, this sucks.

  39. According to them Obama has 45% approval among NJ electorate, which is only 3-4% less Democratic than the 2008 election. Gallup says Obama’s approvals are 55%, I find it hard to believe that NJ is 10% less democratic than the nation. And that’s not even taking into consideration that Obama is far more liked in the the north east than anywhere else.

    And Obama’s numbers in NY-23 is -13 approval rating. Which is off by a net of 30% according to Gallup, not even taking into consideration that Obama is well liked in the north east? And the electorate is 15% less democratic than the nation? The electorate certainly COULD be like that. But I highly doubt that it will be that bad.

    BTW I really don’t understands how PPPs Approval numbers of Obama are so low compared to the electorate or compared to other pollsters.  

  40. I say…

    Owens 50%

    Hoffman 40%

    Scozzafava 10%

    However, I fully admit I am still trying to wrap my head around the bizarre events of the past few days.  Just a week ago I was saying I’d eat my shirt if Scozzafava came in third, now we’re seriously entertaining the notion that Hoffman might actually win.  I have absolutely no clue how this race will turn out, only a hunch and hope.

  41. …where there aren’t enough undecideds left for him to even catch up. I feel like Christie’s headed toward a narrow win, but one just large enough for a recount not to be necessary; like a 2% margin.

  43. And to pile on the bad news, the PPP results for Question 1 in Maine are just as depressing.  51%-47%!!!

    The only glimmer of hope: the odd result that voters under 30 opposed the hateful messure by only 51-48.  I’m hoping all the liberal youngens were out at Halloween parties or out on the streets of Maine or at early voting sites, because young voters should not so close.  That’s almost 50/50!  I can’t believe that number! Can someone tell me if that’s even realistic in New England?!?!?!

  45. “PPP’s polls are “different” in a couple of ways: firstly, they’re automated (“robocall”) polls, and secondly, they use registered voter lists which they purchase from states or third parties, rather than the random digit dial (RDD) method. PPP did pretty well in 2008 and I have a high opinion of them. This year, in spite of being mainly a Democratic polling firm, they’ve shown better numbers for Republicans than most other pollsters — both in NY-23 and elsewhere.”

    —Nate Silver

  46. If they happen to be right, we’ll reassess on Wed. But I think they got Zogby’s algorithm on these polls.

  47. That being said I don’t think Dede’s endorsement is going to flip this election. She was dive bombing and with only a day before the election its hard to see a big swing. Also PPP is usually a firm I turn to when Rasmussen depresses me so now I’m just accpeting it’s going to be a rough night.  

  49. “In sports betting style, how does this look? VA GOV spread, McDonnell 11 1\/2; NJ GOV, Corzine < \/del>1; NY 23, Hoffman 8; NYC, Bloomberg < \/del>9.”

  52. Tammy Baldwin has a primary challenger:

    http://www.wispolitics.com/ind…

    His name is Dave de Felice, and he’s a Dane County Supervisor and state legislative staffer. His boss, Sen. Spencer Coggs, is currently running for Lt. Gov.

    He says he’s going to run as a Proxmire/La Follette independent progressive, which to me, frankly, sounds like he’s going to take all the things that make Feingold a pain in the ass (mostly budget hawkery) but without the progressive ass-kicking that more than makes up for it.

    This could turn into a race if the primary gets moved back because of the military ballots law. UW-Madison is in the district, and if the primary is pushed back too early, students won’t be back on campus yet. Throughout her career, from her time as a county supervisor, then a state rep, and now in Congress, Tammy has always had the campus in her district, and relied on campus turnout to see her through tough races.

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