NY-23: Hoffman Leads Two-Man Race, But Undecideds Shoot Up

Siena (PDF) (11/1, likely voters, 10/27-29 in parens):

Bill Owens (D): 36 (36)

Dede Scozzafava (R): 6 (20)

Doug Hoffman (C): 41 (35)

Undecided: 18 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

This is now officially the weirdest freakin’ race I’ve ever seen. Siena jumped back in with one final poll, following Dede Scozzafava’s shocking dropout. Note that this poll was in the field on Nov. 1 (Sunday, yesterday), but this is such a fudged-up race that it’d be useful to know what hours they were in the field, as it’s likely that much of this poll was taken before it had filtered down that Scozzafava had taken the even more shocking step on the 1st of endorsing her Democratic opponent, Bill Owens.

As it stands, Scozzafava is drawing only 6% of the vote (presumably a few voters still hadn’t heard that she had dropped out, and a few old-school Rockefeller Republicans, faced with the choices of a Democrat or a wingnut, probably plan to stick with her to the bitter end). The big gainer here, though is “Undecided,” up to 18% from 9%, as it seems like many of Scozzafava’s voters don’t have a clear sense of where to go yet. In Scozzafava’s base of the western North Country (Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence Cos.) where most of her dwindling votes were still found in the previous poll, Hoffman and Owens seem to be splitting the difference so far, with Hoffman up to 36% (from 28%) and Owens up to 36% (up from 30%).

The good news for Conservative Bill Hoffman is that a) he’s in the lead, with 41% now, and b) he pulled in a good chunk of Republicans (63%, up from 50% previously). The good news for Owens is that he gained a lot among independents (43%, up from 35% — these are probably the formerly pro-Dede centrist indies, not the teabagger indies who are Hoffman’s base) while Hoffman somehow actually lost ground among indies (37%, down from 40%). The news that I can’t quite figure is that Owens has lost ground among Democrats (62%, down from 66%)… those votes don’t seem to have gone anywhere, except maybe to the undecided column, so those may well be coming back to Owens in the end.

PPP (PDF) (10/31-11/1, likely voters):

Bill Owens (D): 34

Dede Scozzafava (R): 13

Doug Hoffman (C): 51

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±2.3%)

PPP’s poll is a bit staler, as it seems like most of the sample fell in the grey area where Scozzafava had dropped out but not yet endorsed Owens. They present an even better picture for Hoffman, giving him an actual majority of the vote with almost no undecideds. Siena’s numbers seem more plausible, especially in terms of the disparity in the undecideds (considering that the race just got completely upended twice in 48 hours), but one thing PPP does have going for it is sample size: a staggering 1,747.

Politico has some interesting behind-the-scenes details of how the Scozzafava endorsement of Owens took a lot of wheel-greasing from the state Democratic establishment, including a major play by Andrew Cuomo and also Democratic Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver. (The article hints that a party switch may be in the offing for Scozzafava, who will remain in the Assembly.) The RNC is also running a new radio spot in the 23rd, saying their choice will “echo” from Albany to Washington. This is the same RNC, of course, that was backing Scozzafava until a few days ago.

RaceTracker: NY-23

31 thoughts on “NY-23: Hoffman Leads Two-Man Race, But Undecideds Shoot Up”

  2. from the crosstab PDF

    As you may have heard, yesterday Republican Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign for Congress, although by law her name will remain on the ballot. Scozzafava said she released those individuals supporting her campaign to transfer their support as they see fit.

    The endorsement was published about 2:30 pm Eastern Time. It would take a few hours to propegete to other news outlets – and the public in general.

    So even if a polled voter heard about the endorsement the clarification – as worded – may have confused them.

  5. Anyone know if there will be online phone banking for those of us not in the district, and if so where the website is?

    Shit, this reminds me that I still need to look up who Im voting for tomorrow in some municipal races!

  6. Wow, so the GOP chooses one of its local officeholders for an important special election and then the national Republican base proceeds to thrash her so harshly she drops out, endorses the Democrat, and may switch parties.

    That’s some good political work there, Lou….er, Michael Steele.

  10. but personally I still think last year’s NY-13 contest was slightly weirder. Nothing beats the incumbent being pulled over for DUI in Virginia where it comes out he has a second family, he’s forced to resign in disgrace, the GOP nominates a guy to replace him, that guy’s estranged son tries to run in the Libertarian primary to take his dad down, then his dad dies and the GOP instead nominates a guy from the wrong part of the district whom the local GOP chief personally despises.

    This one is probably a close second, though, and obviously more significant given its potential to be the spark that sets off the inevitable establishment vs. teabaggers civil war. Wonder if we can look forward to a seriously messed up New York House race in every cycle now.

    I have no idea who’s going to win this one, but as far as I’m concerned, either candidate winning is a net victory for Democrats. Either Dems win a seat that the GOP has held since the late 1800’s, or Hoffman proves that the establishment can be beaten and touches off nationwide crazyfringe bloodlust against their own erstwhile puppetmasters. For the sake of the people who actually live in NY-23, I hope Owens wins, but either way, I’m gladder than usual that I’m not in Pete Sessions’ shoes right now. (And wow, how crazy can you be if you think someone as crazy as Pete Sessions isn’t crazy enough?)  

  12. http://www.watertowndailytimes…

    Appearing at the North Side Improvement League on Mill Street today, Biden claimed Conservative candidate Douglas L. Hoffman was “handpicked” by radio host Rush Limbaugh as successor to Army Secretary John M. McHugh.

    Apparently, Biden went to Syracuse U – and was a lifeguard for a time in Oswego County ( which I think is in the district ).

  13. Does anyone know how I can phonebank from home? I’ve contacted the DCCC but I had to leave a message. I live in GA and I have a few friends willing to get involved.

  15. I’m sorry to look like I’m dissing polls I don’t like, but the unfortunate timing amongst all these very-quickly-changing circumstances–along with the unprofessional mid-poll leak–make it quite bad.

    On the other hand, Siena’s poll makes a LOT more sense, given its timing.

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