Ten Most Interesting Gubernatorial Races:

Seeing as how there is a very well done post on the most interesting Senatorial Races of the last half century, I’d like to add my thoughts on the ten most interesting Gubernatorial races.

1. Douglas Wilder’s victory in Virginia, which is used as the infamous example of the Bradley Effect. Truthfully Wilder got hit hard late in the campaign about his very strong pro-choice views and the Republican GOTV effort was very good. Still this was a landmark election. Now Wilder’s term in office and efforts since are not the best, Wilder slashed higher education funding rather than raise taxes, but generally put forth good policies.

2. George Bush’s 1994 victory in Texas. This still surprises me when I read up on it, and it cuts me right in the chest that Democrats might have had an opportunity to end Bush’s political career and we would never have had a Bush Presidency if perhaps Richards had taken the campaign a little more seriously. Still for all the talk about Chafee losing in 2006 pales in comparison to Richards, who had an approval rating of more than 70% and lost. A lot of it falls on her, though she made honest mistakes. Her wisecracking debates with Bush, and seeming dismissal of him make complete sense to me, as an informed voter looking at an experienced and competent Governor with a long record of service mockingly pointing out her opponent is a privileged rich kid with no experience in Government. However at the end of the day Texas voters didn’t feel that way and they gave it, for some unknown and unfathomable reason, to Bush over the truly wonderful woman that Anne Richards was.

3. Minnesota’s 1998 Gubernatorial campaign wasn’t supposed to be a mess. Two straightforward candidates, turncoat Democrat Norm Coleman and Hubert Humphrey III. One was Mayor of St. Paul, and the other the son of the legendary Senator and state Attorney General for two decades in his own right. Humphrey won the fragmented primary 3:1 without much harsh feelings and Coleman was unopposed. Now where in this picture an opening was given to a virtually unfunded, mid-size suburban city Mayor and former Pro-Wrestler, (who talks and looks like a former pro-wrestler), to come and win the election is something that I still cannot see. All that’s apparent is that Ventura won sweeping the Twin cities and their suburbs and virtually all of central Minnesota, winning mostly the Republican areas. Its still a miracle really that he won with only 300k to spend on TV ads against two candidates of that caliber. But we all know the story, incompetent wrestler, (who by the way had supporting roles beside Schwarzenegger in Predator and The Running Man, coincidence?), but Ventura is a guy it’s hard for me not to like, I do kind of, (feeling ashamed here), enjoy his off-color and tell it as it is remarks on many issues, and I can appreciate many of his views on social issues, Religion, but at the end of the day he’s a gadfly at the same level as Kinky Friedman. That being said I’d almost vote for any candidate that comes up with a saying like, “He ain’t Kinky, he’s my Governor.”

4. CA Gov Recall 2003: I can’t think of any election that will go down etched in popular culture more than Arnold Schwarzenegger, the movie star, defeating the hapless and pathetic Cruz Bustamante to become Governor of California. The jokes it inspired and place it has in both satire and political memory are not likely to be soon gone. Of course California will not soon be recovering from the Gubernatorial Tenure of the Governator, who true to his name, has terminated the state of California in accordance with his programming.

5. 2002 CA Gov Election: I find this one equally interesting, Gray Davis spending millions on what was perhaps the dirtiest and most despicable political move I’ve ever seen from a Democrat; he blitzed the state with 7 million dollars of campaign ads supporting the conservative challenger of Richard Riordan. However, for all his criticism, Gray Davis was not a bad governor, and at one point was posting massive approval ratings and in a similar situation to Arnold they collapsed during budgetary deficits when the dot com bubble collapse, again a situation where Proposition 13 and California’s anti-tax elements continue to hamper that state’s government. Davis’ only other mistake was his mishandling the electrical shortages and appearing too preoccupied with fundraising and securing his own reelection; in the end he spent, I believe, 100,000,000 to secure 47% of the vote over a hard-right candidate.

6. Washington Governor, 2004: This is another race I find interesting if only because I can’t see what a liberal state like Washington sees in Dino Rossi, I mean the guy is a virtual McDonnell without that level of Christian Fundamentalism. He’s a sleazy businessman, a sleazier politician, and he holds highly conservative positions. His campaign was propped out by Right-wing groups dumping millions into advertisements in the state. I can only say that Christine lost the election more than Rossi won it, however she did still hold on by edge of her teeth, winning by 134 votes out of nearly 3 million cast, one of the closest elections I can think of in modern times. Moving on from the ridiculous claims that King County stole the election by noticing during the manual recount that correct protocol was not followed with a batch of 700+ absentee ballots which had eligible signatures and were valid votes, something Washington Republicans swear by, Gregoire has been a very good Governor in this outsider’s opinion, at least in her first term she was very active at addressing issues and introducing progressive reforms.

7. 2003 Louisiana Election: An interesting campaign. Of course the white, pro–business Mayor of New Orleans, Ray Nagin, (who would later change to run as the black candidate against Mitch Landrieu when it suited him), endorsed Bobby Jindall, as did the normally Democratic Times-Picayune. To the disappointment of most dedicated, real Democrats in Louisiana, Kathleen Blanco beat Attorney General Richard Ieyoub, (who is Syrian, not Cajun), by 17,000 votes to be the Democratic standard bearer in the run off. Ieyoub would have been a far better Governor.

Of course in what is the interesting storyline the highly conservative Blanco won in an upset. It was finally an incident when racism bit Republicans in the butt in the South, and the utterly incompetent, (but much beloved for his perceived but non-existent non-corruptness), Mike Foster’s handpicked and groomed young successor, Bobby Jindall defeated for Governor. When I look at the map of Blanco’s victory I have to stop and make sure New Orleans is blue and I’m not looking at the Republican map with an inverted color. She won virtually all of North Louisiana, including 80% McCain and Bush parishes like Grant, LaSalle, and West Feliciana. Racism in rural north Louisiana created a big upset as Blanco coasted to an easy seven point victory in completely unique political map for a competitive LA election, as New Orleans and other Democratic strongholds voted with virtually every rural county in the state to beat Jindall.

Of course Blanco showed herself and in a disgrace to the type of campaign strategies Democrats should be using, her campaign doctored its TV ad photos of Jindall making him look much darker than he actually is and trying to make him look black to low information North Louisiana voters. It worked. Of course Blanco went on to become a popular governor, with approval ratings in the upper fifties until Katrina and she was ridiculed for the ineptitude, by and large, of Ray Nagin and the rest of the impossibly corrupt New Orleans Political machinery and FEMA. In strange turn around Republican Governor Haley Barbour was hailed as a leader and brilliant organizer in dealing with Mississippi’s problems and his previously double digit negatives became double digit positives that carried him to reelection. I always find these storylines interesting; the National did find it very important at the time to constantly temper any criticism of Bush by noting that Louisiana had a Democratic Governor, as if trying to shift blame on Blanco, and a Democratic Mayor of New Orleans. Of course that’s if you can consider a Republican who switched parties to run and was funded by primarily white business interests, a Democrat.

8. GA-Gov 2006: Poor Roy Barnes, he wasn’t a bad Governor, he just screwed up. His support of the Northern Arc destroyed his showing in the Atlanta suburbs and his plans to redesign the state flag among the general 2002 wave flattened his percentages in the in the rural southern counties that used to make up Georgia Democrats’ statewide coalitions. It was an upset and in the end it wasn’t even that close, at a five point margin. Following that four Democrats defected in the State Senator and handed over control to the good ole Sunday School Teacher Sunny Perdue.

9. Oklahoma 2002: If there was a bigger surprise in 2002 than Barnes losing it was that 39 year old State Senator Brad Henry beat Steve Largent with the help of a huge performance by libertarian candidate, (and former Republican candidate), Gary Richardson, to become Governor of Oklahoma. Henry’s campaign is a combination of all the flukes a Democrat would need to win. He went traveling in the back country rural areas, he benefited from a wave of ire at the banning of chicken fighting which turned out a Democratic margin in the state’s rural areas, and he got the backing of Barry Switzer. Won’t happen again, and Henry established himself as a highly popular Governor by taking nearly no risks and attempting to appease conservative platforms.

Won’t happen again even though Democrats hold every statewide office coming off an impressive string of 2006 statewide victories, while they were losing the State Senate much to mine and others surprise.

10. Wyoming 2002: I’m not going to say it surprises me as much as some people. Three of the last four governor’s of Wyoming have been Democrats and the state has gotten more or less conservative in that time, although Democratic strength at the legislative level imploded by the 1980s. In 2002 Bebout simply screwed up by running too negative a campaign against Freudenthal and being narrowly beaten as a result, in addition he had to deal with a very divisive moderate versus rabid conservative primary as sane Wyoming Republicans squared off against the Barbara Cubin’s.

Still the timing was surprising, and while a relatively unimportant race its still an interesting state for Democrats to hold that power. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the race is the 80-15 lead Bebout supposedly had immediately after winning his primary.

I suppose I should not an honorable mention or two.

Kansas Governor 2002: This was a close race, Sebelius looked to be favored with moderates coalescing around her and a fantastic campaign being run.

Hawaii 2002: Linda Lingle’s win shocked a lot of people. But really the old guard of the HA Democratic party had it coming to them eventually, the strangest thing to me is that it came from a white, Jewish woman who grew up in Missouri and southern California. Long term she accomplished little, you could say Lingle has been a disaster for state Republicans despite her popularity, as she oversaw the implosion of their position in the State Legislature and has accomplished very little of her standard fare conservative, pro-business agenda. More than anything she was probably elected out of sheer frustration with Cayetano and the incompetency and the out of touch Democratic old guard.

Still don’t let Obama’s numbers fool you, the state is much more conservative that and favorable to Republicans, he has single-handedly, perhaps, turned back a Republican trend but Honolulu remains very open to Republicans and is the population center. That being said Abercrombie will wipe the floor, 72 or not he’s said to be a lifetime weightlifting enthusiast, and Hawaii is known for its old politicians, its not a place to set up a political career if your idea of “your turn” and “maturity” is when you start collecting social security.