PPP (pdf) (11/13-15, registered voters, 1/10-11 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 43 (45)
Roy Blunt (R): 42 (44)
Undecided: 15 (9)Robin Carnahan (D): 42
Chuck Purgason (R): 35
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±3.6%)Roy Blunt (R): 53
Chuck Purgason (R): 16
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±5.5%)
In a sign of how consistently this race has polled, Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has the same one-point lead over Republican Rep. Roy Blunt today that she did in January, according to PPP. Almost everyone else who has polled the race finds a similar narrow lead for Carnahan or a tie. Carnahan is the only figure polled with positive favorables at 40/36 — not Blunt, at 30/38, not Chuck Purgason at 7/14, and not Barack Obama, at 43/52. Given Obama’s negative in Missouri, it’s impressive that Carnahan is doing as well as she is, but that’s got to be a combination of her respected family name and Blunt’s unlikeability.
The most interesting change to this story is the addition of state Sen. Chuck Purgason, who’s flying the anti-establishment flag for the hard right. PPP had leaked that Purgason was polling in the “double digits” against the insidery Blunt, setting off all sorts of breathless speculation — however, while 16% does certainly qualify as double digits, that really doesn’t put him close to Blunt (although, given the current depths of feeling for many right-wingers, his numbers seem likely to go up as he gets better known). Sarah Steelman, who already has a statewide profile and who’d been anticipating a run earlier in the year, may now be kicking herself for not staying in the race. (She landed some good anti-establishment blows on Blunt, calling him a “white guy in a suit,” but then dropped out prior to the summer’s teabagger ascendancy.)
RaceTracker Wiki: MO-Sen
More popular than that. PPP has him lower across the board in individual states for some reason. Having said that Blunt’s disapproval seems reasonable and means he will probably lose unless the national environment gets worse.
is a pretty awful candidate, but in a state that swings Republican and in a climate that will likely swing Republican, he may not have to be.
and Talent was polling 5% ahead of Carnahan. The final margin was..
50% Talent
49% Carnahan
I’m guessing in 2010 the results will be around
52% Carnahan
45% Blunt
seem to be the rule rather than the exception in Missouri. Especially for federal office.
Republicans still don’t like their politicians very much. And the “message test” on Blunt is more like a test for Robin. 65% say Roy’s part of the problem in DC, and that’s a winning message.
“Republican leader Roy Blunt” might be just as lethal as invoking GWB and Matt Blunt. The people who drove the country into a blizzard want to take the wheel again.
even some state legislator, and had a better shot of retaining this. Blunt has to deal with negative fallout from his role in congressional leadership AND negative fallout from his son’s disastrous tenure as governor. They really picked about the worst candidate they could. Well, besides Ashcroft, maybe.