Rasmussen (11/18, likely voters):
John McCain (R-inc): 45
J.D. Hayworth (R): 43
Chris Simcox (R): 4
Some other: 2
Not sure: 7
(MoE: ±4%)
The good news! for John McCain is that ex-Rep. and current right-wing talk show host J.D. Hayworth hasn’t made any moves toward running in a GOP primary. Hayworth has been rumored to be interested, but that may simply a way for Hayworth to yank McCain’s chain. Former Minutemen leader Chris Simcox is definitely running, but this poll indicates he doesn’t pose much of a threat. PPP — the only other pollster to look at the GOP primary field so far — found McCain leading Simcox by a closer 61-17 in September, so it looks like there’s a hardcore base of anti-McCain votes who prefer Hayworth but would still go for the even more extreme Simcox. (PPP didn’t test Hayworth.)
The bad news! for McCain is that Hayworth may see these numbers, see the general anti-incumbent, anti-establishment climate on the right, see the organizational pieces falling into place (Club for Growth, Freedom Works, etc.), see little Democratic general election opposition (up-and-coming Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman is the only Dem in the race), see lingering conservative resentment toward McCain for his occasional bipartisan moments and his incompetent presidential campaign, and think well, why the hell not?
RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Sen
3/4 of Republicans say their reps in Congress are out of touch with the base. http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Nothing would illustrate the craziness of the modern GOP better than their last Presidential candidate losing his own Senate primary after four terms because he wasn’t “conservative enough”. Except for maybe running his crazy, uncouth epic fail idiot of a running mate who scares 60% of the country to death against Obama in 2012.
Someone like Giffords, I think, would surely be competitive against Hayworth.
if it becomes obvious mccain will lose his primary, a better dem may jump in.
It’s scheduled for September, though the new federal law will likely push it back to late August. What this means is that interested Dems have over half a year to file if Hayworth actually jumps into the race and becomes competitive.
Glassman’s the best we’re going to get in a mano-a-mano with McCain. But if it looks like Hayworth is going to actually get in and might win the primary, there are at least two heavy hitters on the Dem side who would probably jump in. One is Jim Pederson, the wealthy developer, former Dem Party state chair, and 2006 Senate candidate who performed respectably against Jon Kyl. The other is Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, who’s known as a RINO and who we’d hate if he actually won the election (he’s regularly endorsed not only McCain, but the odious GOP Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas), but who might have the perfect profile for a race against Hayworth.
Both these guys wanted to run for Governor this cycle, but were scared off by the popularity juggernaut that is Terry Goddard. Pederson has done decently well before and could likely beat Hayworth. Gordon is untested in a statewide race, but his profile suggests he might very well win too.
Note to the Gabby Giffords fans on SSP: it would be sheer lunacy for Giffords to run. Candidates from Tucson tend not to do well in statewide races, and anyone in this race would be facing an uphill battle since McCain would be favored to win the primary. That’s a risk worth taking for Pederson, who’s out of a job, or for Gordon, who otherwise has to wait nine more years for Goddard to retire before moving up to statewide office. But for Giffords, who’s got a great platform and a relatively safe House seat where she is, and who’s very young to boot, it would be a foolish move. And Giffords is nothing if not whip-smart politically.
if they had the confidence and got their act together for a change.
This is good news for John McCain.
upon seeing those numbers.
Here is my big worry now about all of these tea-bagger primaries, they are really going to screw us down the road when we need the help of moderates to get legislation passed, mainly immigration reform. That was the one piece of legislation where we lost a large number of Dems but also picked up a large number of GOPers and we came up just short.
A tea-bagger primary against McCain is only going to make him think twice about supporting immigration reform this time around, and this will certainly carry over to MANY other GOPers whose vote we need to get this passed. Someone on SSP had mentioned reading an article about how the GOP wouldve been more willing to work with the Dems on the stimulus I think it was but they were all too-afraid of their bases.
And there is also the possibility that the Dems will not be ready to capitalize on all of these tea-bagger primaries, thus allowing several of them to win. We could certainly come back in 6 years or 2 years and have the candidate and campaign ready to take them down but too late, the meme that the GOP tea-baggers won has already been published.
I am really worried about what this all portends for national politics. We have a giant problem in that the people who decide elections are not the people deciding the candidates.
if the nominated candidate resigns? That is should Hayworth win a primary, and Glassman “decides” to no longer be the nominee, is it possible for the Democratic Party to slate Napolitano in his place?
Nobody knows who he is to be sure, but he seems to have a nice resume and a pretty face. Hayworth is no Rubio. He is a vile person and it comes out in his campaign style. Hispanics would run to the polls to beat a bigot like Hayworth.
Kristol suggests that she should back the person who brought her into the national spotlight.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/…
And then there’s this response http://www.amconmag.com/larison/
snip