AZ-Gov: Goddard Looks Good, But Watch Out for Arpaio

Rasmussen (11/18, likely voters, 9/27 in parentheses, primary numbers here):

Terry Goddard (D): 44 (42)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 35 (35)

Some other: 9 (13)

Not sure: 12 (11)

Terry Goddard (D): 39

Joe Arpaio (R): 51

Some other: 7

Not sure: 4

Terry Goddard (D): 40

Dean Martin (R): 38

Some other: 11

Not sure: 1

(MoE: ±3%)

Joe Arpaio (R): 47

Dean Martin (R): 22

Jan Brewer (R): 10

John Munger (R): 6

Vernon Parker (R): 6

Some other: 3

Not sure: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen is the first pollster to try out Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio in gubernatorial polls, and find he does really well, winning the GOP primary by a wide margin and also being the only Republican who can beat Democratic AG Terry Goddard (the appointed incumbent, Jan Brewer, who’s at 39/57 approval, certainly can’t). That seems to be mostly a name recognition issue: Arpaio is well-known both statewide and in nationwide anti-immigrant circles for his over-the-top efforts to fight illegal immigration, and he’s at 63/31 favorables (which seems to suggest not too many Latinos fit through their likely voter screen!). (He may be best known for other ham-handed tactics, including resumption of chain gangs, pink underwear for inmates, and housing overflow prisoners in tents.)

The thing is, Arpaio hasn’t given any indication that he’s running. There have been a few burbles of interest from his camp, but they seem more motivated by Arpaio’s ongoing conflicts with Goddard and his desire to yank Goddard’s chain. The two have clashed not only on immigration enforcement (Goddard is following Obama administration policy to move away from raids as a tactic), but also on ethics, as Goddard is investigating the Sheriff’s Command Association for campaign finance violations and Arpaio is investigating Goddard over Goddard’s investigation into former state Treasurer David Petersen (who later pled guilty to failing to report income). One other important, oft-overlooked detail: Arpaio is no spring chicken, at 77. (Discussion already underway in ChadinFL‘s diary.)

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Gov

8 thoughts on “AZ-Gov: Goddard Looks Good, But Watch Out for Arpaio”

  2. should be in jail. Honestly, would the Republican party even get behind this guy considering what a liability he could be nationally? He makes Tom Tancredo look like Caesar Chavez.

  3. The Governorship was an open seat then.  Polls showed him sweeping the field, except for J. D. Hayworth, who quickly dropped out of the race.  His Democratic opponent, Janet Napolitano, wasn’t as popular then as Goddard is now.  The Ashcroft Justice Department wasn’t going to mess with his atrocious prisoner abuse.  It was shaping up to be a good year for Republicans (to be fair, it is this year too).  And the country was in a much more law-and-order mood then than it is now.

    He didn’t take it then.  He won’t take it now.  It’s not that he doesn’t want to be governor — it’s that he knows that if he isn’t sitting in the Maricopa County Sheriff’s office, someone is going to go in there and find out proof of what he’s done, and he’s going to spend the rest of his life getting assbanged in one of his own prisons.  That’s especially true with Eric Holder as AG, but if he didn’t feel safe in 2002, he certainly won’t feel safe now.

  4. I posted in Chad’s diary here, on whether there’s enough of a xenophobic base in Arizona.  Even though the House races went our way when it came to a Democrat running against a Minuteman-type candidate, the results of Arizona’s ballot propositions paints a much more depressing picture.

    Look at the ballot propositions in the past two elections.  All the ones related to immigration issues have been won by LARGE margins by the xenophobic side.

    In 2006:

    Prop. 100: Proposed amendment to the constitution to deny bail to persons charged with serious felonies who are in the US illegally.

    Yes 1,170,961 (78%)        No 332,461 (22%)

    Prop. 102: Proposed amendment to the constitution to deny the award of punitive damages in civil court cases to persons who are in the US illegally.

    Yes 1,102,237 (74%)        No 382,714 (26%)

    Prop. 103: Proposed amendment to the constitution to declare English the official language of the state.

    Yes 1,114,273 (74%)        No 391,497 (26%)

    Prop. 300: Referendum on a proposal to require citizenship for eligibility for various subsidized services such as in-state tuition and financial assistance.

    Yes 1,060,444 (71%)        No 423,994 (29%)

    And in 2008?

    Prop. 202: Proposition 202 changes current Arizona law that prohibits employers from intentionally or knowingly employing an alien who is not authorized under federal law to work in the United States. Under Proposition 202, the definition of “knowingly employ an unauthorized alien” would be changed to require actual knowledge by an owner or officer of the employer.

    Prop. 202 was opposed by the Maricopa County Republicans (i.e., Arpaio’s folk) and the Minutemen-type groups.  Result?

    Yes 725,963 (41%)        No 1,048,966 (59%)

    The Minutemen win again.

    Now, you could say some of those may have been common sense measures, like bail for illegal aliens who’ve committed felonies, but the English-only measure, of which a similar measure the Arizona Supreme Court had already ruled unconstitutional back in 1998?  That’s spitting in the face of all immigrants, and it passed with 74%.

    Given those numbers, no, it’s not surprising at all to see Arpaio up so big in the Rasmussen poll.  The state as a whole seems pretty xenophobic to me, judging by those propositions.  If you want to disagree after seeing those statewide numbers, feel free to do so.  I’d love to be wrong here.

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