PPP (pdf) (11/20-22, likely voters):
Tom Barrett (D): 46
Tommy Thompson (R): 41
Undecided: 13Tom Barrett (D): 40
Scott Walker (R): 40
Undecided: 20Tom Barrett (D): 41
Mark Neumann (R): 39
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±3.5%)
PPP takes its first look at Wisconsin’s governor’s race since the retirement of incumbent Dem Jim Doyle, the entry and then exit of Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, and now the candidacy of ex-Rep., current Milwaukee mayor, and 2002 gubernatorial primary loser Tom Barrett. (They did previously poll on Doyle, finding him losing to two Republicans.) They find close races for Barrett against both Republicans who are definitely in the race, Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker and long-ago ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (with the slightly less conservative Walker performing only slightly better, even though Walker’s 30/25 favorables certainly beat Neumann’s 16/27 — Barrett, meanwhile, is at 31/21). The only previous poll that has tested a Barrett in a general election matchup was a Walker internal, which posted similar numbers: a late August poll giving Walker a 44-43 lead.
The fear for many Dems was that once-popular ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson might take a cue from Iowa’s Terry Branstad and make a play for a fifth term. Between this and his Senate poll numbers from this same sample, though, it looks like he might want to start thinking harder about that mayoral job in Elroy instead. Thompson underperforms the other two Republicans; that, plus his 38/45 favorables, suggest there may be some element of “been there, done that” to his potential candidacy.
RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Gov
Their tweets on twitter about how the dems are going down next year have gotten so annoying to the fact that I am actually considering unfollowing them. First of all I definately believe that Barrett has way higher statewide recognition than PPP is originally giving do to the fact that he is the Mayor of Milwakee, a former congressman, ran for the gubernatorial nomination in 2002, and made the national news across the county by being a hero this summer. There are also many undecideds in this race because since Jim Doyle is retiring (thus the election is no longer a referendum on Jim Doyle) people don’t really care about the election and probably won’t start making up their minds till April or May (which is when accurate results in all polling contests will start becoming more apparent). Simply put I expect Barrett to win this by double digits. Here’s my prediction:
55% Barrett
43% Walker
He clearly ain’t Branstad. Without Thompson in the race I’m perfectly happy to choose between Barrett and Walker/Neumann based on the issues. I expect Barratt will benefit from a divisive primary, which while it may not be so now, is how it will probably develop. If either plays the wingnut card, they’ll be dead in November.
He does the worst in terms of spread here and loses to Feingold by a sizable margin, if I remember correctly.
He under performs with Republicans. Thats why he does so bad against Feingold and here. I’m sure his support of the public option has a lot to do with it.
BTW, no daily digest today?