Rasmussen (12/8, likely voters, 10/13 in parentheses) (primary release):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 46 (45)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 8 (9)Joe Sestak (D): 38 (38)
Pat Toomey (R): 44 (37)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 13 (19)
(MoE: ±3%)Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (46)
Joe Sestak (D): 35 (42)
Other: 3 (2)
Not sure: 14 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
Arlen Specter’s numbers against ex-Rep. Pat Toomey haven’t changed much from October, which isn’t good news. What has changed here is that, unlike October, where Rep. Joe Sestak led Toomey by a point, Sestak now trails Toomey by 6, making it harder for Sestak to make the argument he’ll perform better vis-a-vis Toomey. Specter’s numbers are pretty locked-in, though, with only 6% of all voters having no opinion of him, compared with 19% for Toomey and 26% for Sestak.
On the Democratic primary front, the single-digit gap between Specter and Sestak from October (the smallest yet seen in the race) is back to 13. Specter actually has pretty good approvals among Dems, maybe thanks to his race to the left (66/25). Sestak is at 48/22, but that leaves 25% not sure, giving him a lot more of a ceiling for growth.
RaceTracker: PA-Sen
Specter’s favorables are indeed getting a bit less dreadful, but somehow, Toomey’s managing to run a pretty effective and deceivingly-moderate campaign, and I suspect no matter who the Dem is, Toomey will at least garner 45%. Ultimately, however, I believe Specter’s probably too unpopular with Independents and Republicans to garner re-election here, whereas I could see Sestak even appealing to some right-of-center voters.
Mark my words, however – if Toomey’s winning this thing, then the climate in Fall 2010 would assumedly remain bleak for the Dems, and we’d likely see Rob Portman, John Kasich, Mark Kirk, among others, score victories too.
After the polls that added up to 120 percent for Fox news, why are we still looking at Rasmussen?