Swing State Project Changes Ratings on Ten Races

40 thoughts on “Swing State Project Changes Ratings on Ten Races”

1. I’d move it to lean R.  My gut also says Illinois belongs in leans D still but it’s kind of hard to justify it with the current poll numbers we’re seeing.

2. Who would of thought in the beginning of the year we might have a dogfight in our hands in the senate. Always why does it seem like this batch of senate seats (Class 3) always causes Democrats heartburn? I don’t want to be Tezilla, but I hope we don’t lose most of the competitive senate races next year like what happened in 2004.

3. But I’m curious why WY-Gov. isn’t a RTW, given the recent whisperings of Freudenthal challenging the term limit laws (or at least polling on the matter).

4. Assuming Perry wins the primary, he’d be facing Bill White, the most popular mayor of Houston in living memory and the best statewide candidate Texas Dems have had in a decade plus. Remember, this is the same Rick Perry that got a whole 39% of the vote last time around…..

5. For one thing, I would have PA-Gov as Lean R.

6. Have a couple of paragraph blurb from a state-level blogger on each of the races when you change the ratings.

7. the reasoning behind IL-Sen. I know that the poll numbers are nothing amazing but it’s been that way for quite some time now.

8. IL, PA, and NH are at least lean Dem

9. I agree about all the other Dem Senate seats, but I’d keep IL-Sen at “lean D.”  IL is just an awfully Democratic state.  The underlying partisan bent of the state makes me less worried about the current polls.

   Now if the polls were in Dodd territory, then of course things would be different… the Democratic tilt of Connecticut is the only thing keeping CT-Sen out of “Lean R” in my view.  That and the prospect of a no-holds-barred smackdown of a primary on the R side.

10. It’s hard to accurately rate these races when we are just over 10 months away from election, but overall the current ratings are very reasonable.  In the senate races, I had Kentucky as “Lean R”, and Illinois as “Lean D”, but it was more of a guess on my part based on the current mood of the electorate.  In NC, I have the race as “Likely R”, but mostly because the Democratic primary looks like it will be a nasty one.  Iowa is a race I’m not too familiar with, and I had it as “RTW”, but if anyone can show me some current data on this race, I’d be much obliged.

11. When Ras shows the democrat ahead in these time I would put it in likely D

12. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…

    Nate suggests the real priority for the next poll should be CO.

13. There are scenarios under which Culver could pull this out.  But, it is not a coin flip that he will do so.  How far behind for how long does an incumbent governor need to get before falling below the Tossup category?

14. I would largely agree but in the end I don’t see IL and PA as anything but leaning retention. I might also make a couple of the RTW Dem seats into the Likely column. Boxer/Gillibrand = Grassley/Vitter.

    Governors I think a bit differently, especially if we are going on current polling and candidates – GA and OH tossup, AL, SC, SD all leaning Republican, VT, NY, IL leaning Dem.

15. IL and PA I think should be lean D and until Beau Biden enters the race in DE I think that one should be Lean R

16. Obviously 10 months out allows room for a lot to change. I suspect this will take two forms which MAY improve Democratic chances overall.

    Assuming there is a reasonable semblance of an economic/jobs recovery, the insanity of the health care debate settles down a bit, and President Obama and Democratic candidates are out on the trail pushing their accomplishments and the lack of any Republican policy alternative — odds are that the overall political environment will be less toxic for Democratic candidates.

    Secondly, it remains to be seen what the impact of the Republican tea bag wing running in a series of divisive primaries against less conservative candidates.

    In the US Senate this could play out in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware (unlikely, but Castle does have a credible right wing opponent), Florida, Illinois (although the primary is probably too soon for Hughes to overtake Kirk), Kansas, Kentucky, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Utah. (And who knows if other far right challenges will emerge in places like Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, and Louisiana).

    In the Governor’s races, expect messy Republican primaries in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut,
    
    Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine (where half the state is running for Governor), Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wisconsin.

    There are also at least a couple of dozen House races with the prospect of divisive Republican primaries.

    The point isn’t that the tea-baggers have to win every one of these primaries – they won’t –  but if they manage to pull off more than a few, a big part of the political narrative becomes the civil war in the Republican party (witness the intensity of the coverage of the Republican/Conservative meltdown in NY 23). This makes the impact greater than the average run-of-the-mill contested primary that both parties routinely have.

    If it appears to the public at large that the Republican party is being completely taken over by the loony-tune right wingers, it will make it harder for Republican candidates (especially those emerging from divisive primaries) to attract the kind of moderate independent voters who are up for grabs. And, hopefully, if a more extreme candidate wins any Republican nomination, that improves Democratic chances for a victory in that individual race.

    If the Republicans cannibalize themselves in an series of ideologically driven primaries, it will help shift the overall political environment in favour of the Democrats. I think there is a fairly good chance that will happen.

    I’m not trying to be blindly optimistic about 2010’s elections – I think it has the potential to be ugly for Democrats. But I also believe that there is a strong possibility of a real shift in the political landscape in our favour from the pessimistic predictions that predominate these days.  

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