Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (1/5-7, likely voters, 11/30-12/2 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (48)
Undecided: 10 (10)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)
Sue Lowden (R): 50 (51)
Undecided: 10 (8)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (NA)
Sharron Angle (R): 45 (NA)
Undecided: 15 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 28 (24)
Sue Lowden (R): 26 (25)
Sharron Angle (R): 14 (13)
Mark Amodei (R): 1 (1)
Bill Parson (R): 0 (1)
Robin Titus (R): 0 (1)
Mike Wiley (R): 0 (1)
John Chachas (R): 0 (1)
Undecided: 32 (33)
(MoE: ±6%)
Purely numerically, things haven’t changed much in the Nevada Senate race, with only minor fluctuations in the general and primary (although that fluctuation does move Danny Tarkanian ahead of Sue Lowden). A new feature is a matchup between Harry Reid and right-wing ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle; even that turns up as a loss for Reid, although not by as big a margin.
These numbers, however, predate Harry Reid’s latest woes. The “stepping in it” of the title, of course, refers to allegations in the new book Game Change that Reid observed several years ago, in his best attempts to sound like a 19th-century linguistics professor, that Barack Obama lacked a “Negro dialect.” It looks like Reid may weather this particular storm — for instance, John Cornyn said that while he’d like Reid to resign, he doesn’t actually expect him to do so — but it can’t help when you’re in a difficult re-election fight if you have to put out fires like this and belabor talking points that reiterate that you’re staying on as majority leader. With stories and comments (Chuck Todd, Nate Silver) popping up more and more wondering if Reid has crossed the event horizon from which he can’t re-emerge from the black hole — much as Chris Dodd seemed to do last month — it’ll be interesting to watch his next series of moves.
The LVRJ reports gubernatorial numbers separately:
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 23 (18)
Brian Sandoval (R): 39 (39)
Michael Montadon (R): 7 (6)
Undecided: 31 (37)
(MoE: ±6%)
Rory Reid (D): 31 (34)
Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (49)
Undecided: 16 (17)Rory Reid (D): 43 (48)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 36 (34)
Undecided: 21 (18)Rory Reid (D): 20 (24)
Brian Sandoval (R): 35 (32)
Oscar Goodman (I): 33 (35)
Undecided: 12 (9)Rory Reid (D): 24 (25)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 21 (25)
Oscar Goodman (I): 41 (38)
Undecided: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±4%)
Things aren’t looking any better for Reid Jr., who seems to still be losing ground against Republican Brian Sandoval (although he still beats incumbent GOP governor Jim Gibbons in a two-way, perhaps the least popular man in a state chock-full of terribly unpopular politicians). Democratic Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman — who hasn’t made any official plans one way or another, but apparently would run as an independent if he ran — is competitive with Sandoval, although Sandoval noodges ahead in the three-way tossup.
toast. I hate to say it, but a pile of crap can run against Reid and win, as long as that pile is a Republican.
Needs to retire. No way around it. If he stays is, Sue Lowden is probably the next senator from Nevada, either that, or one of the other Repubs if they pull an upset in the primary.
If there was ever a time for Shelley Berkley to get into the race, it’s now. She’s our strongest candidate, and would likely hold the seat against the Repub challengers, who really aren’t all that impressive. I’ve heard rumors that she might be waiting on Ensign in 2012, but chances are he’s going to retire then anyway because re-election would be futile. Hell, if she won’t go, Dina Titus might as well jump in. She’s got a tough re-election coming up anyway, so why not try to make the big jump now while the opportunity is there.
He and Blanche Lincoln retiring would be the most politically-astute acts possible.
Is Oscar Goodman a good mayor? I don’t know a thing about him, but since he’s a Democrat I thought he may have some redeeming qualities.
He’s an Independent
http://www.kxnt.com/Mayor-Good…
I think if a Reid must retire, the first Reid in retire must be Rory Reid.
run instead? Could Shelley Berkley win?
They are LOSING this one if Reid stays aboard. I don’t know who they could replace him with, but anybody but Reid is the ideal choice right now.
If they don’t understand that, then let me say this. I know Reid is a former boxer and that should count in a fight, but being a boxer is totally useless when your opponent is using a submachine gun.
Let’s look at recent history: Dodd and Daschle.
Dodd committed a cardinal sin by moving his family out of Connecticut and basically running a kamikaze presidential campaign. It was my assumption in ’08 that he wasn’t running for re-election. In fact, I believe he filed campaign paperwork with the FEC at the outset of his presidential campaign that he was not running for re-election in ’10 (see “Factual Discussion” here):
http://saos.nictusa.com/aodocs…
Daschle was an obstructionist who got caught up in the Washington lifestyle to the degree that he signed papers attesting to his permanent residency in Washington (see here):
http://www.nationalreview.com/…
Reid isn’t guilty of either of these or anything like it. I think the progressives in the blogosphere want him out regardless because he’s not “their man.” And conservatives don’t like him because he’s from a swing state. My point is that Reid will weather the storm against token competition. He’s fought close elections in ’74 and ’86, and this situation is nothing new to him. Let’s start supporting Reid instead of knocking him down. He needs all the help he can get at this point.
Harry Reid won’t lose to Danny Tarkanian, too much scandal surrounding that guy and a last name will only carry you so far. If Reid can somehow exploit the radical views of an Angle or the incompetence of a Tarkanian then he will be fine. Lowden is the one who worries me out of that top group.
What circus that would be. Gibbons/Rory Reid/Goodman. If I were a Nevada Dem I would back Goodman regardless of who the other nominees were.