Last PPP Poll:
Hoffman (C): 51%
Owens (D): 34%
Margin: 17%
Result:
Hoffman (C): 46%
Owens (D): 48.3%
Last PPP Poll:
Brown (R): 51%
Coakley (D): 46%
Margin: 5%
Turnout. Just sayin’…
12 thoughts on “A Short, but Necessary MA-SEN diary”
Comments are closed.
PPP seems to have a tendency to over-estimate Republican turnout in special elections.
Lets look at the three most recent polling misses – NH primary, AK-AL, NY-23.
Did Hillary win because she cried or because she always lead and the polls picked-up Obama momentum from Iowa that wasn’t real?
Did Young beat Berkowitz because of Palin or because they couldn’t stomach sending two Dems to Washington?
We know the polls missed NY-23 because of the strange circumstances surrounding Scozzafava. And to be fair they still found all those undecideds.
The question here is does the political bent of MA and Dem organization make a similar difference? It is possible just not likely.
I try to look for reasons to be optimistic as much as anyone else, but come on, pointing to PPP’s NY-23 screw up is getting ridiculous. That poll was done ON HALLOWEEN in the midst of a HUGE shakeup (aka Scozzafava dropping out and endorsing Owens). Those were crazy circumstances that haven’t really been replicated in this race. The PPP poll could still be off but we shouldn’t breathe easy just because they dropped the ball on NY-23.