The upcoming 2010 mid-term elections are causing me some mild anxiety, and I don’t know if there is an appropriate historical model for this election. I’m asking for some insight from the SSP nation on what they see is the best historical model.
Facts
1. A moderately popular Democratic President currently occupies the White House, although his popularity is not as strong as the day he was sworn in.
2. The United States’ economy is hopefully in “recovery” mode from The Great Recession. Most of the events leading to The Great Recession began under the Bush Administration.
3. The opposition to the Obama administration is energized (note: I don’t necessarily believe that “opposition” is solely the Republican base. Certain factions within the Tea Party movement seems to be at odds with both the Obama Administration and the Republicans that were in power during the Bush Administration).
4. Health Care legislation. This is not to debate the health care legislation, but instead to compare how the electorate reacted to other administrations’ attempts to pass meaningful health care reform.
5. Since the 2004 elections, the Democrats have (net) gained 14 seats in the Senate, 54 seats in the House, and the White House.
6. The United States has 2 wars, 1 in Iraq and 1 in Afghanistan.
Mid-term elections in the past
I haven’t included all the mid-term elections in the past, but instead a select sample that we may compare to the current environment:
1930 mid-term elections. The Stock Market crashed in October 1929, and the Great Depression was sinking into the United States. Democrats won 8 seats in the Senate, and 52 seats in the House.
1934 mid-term elections. Combining the results from the 1930 and 1932 elections, the Democrats had already picked up 149 seats in the House and 21 seats in the Senate, plus a new Democratic President. In the 1934 mid-terms, the Democrats picked up an additional 9 seats in both the House and the Senate. During this time FDR passed some key New Deal legislation.
1938 mid-term elections. Although in 1936 the Democrats won an additional 12 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate, there was certain opposition to some of FDR’s “court-packing” plan. In addition, a recession hit the United States around 1937. In 1938, the Democrats lost 7 seats in the Senate and 72 seats in the House.
1946 mid-term elections. Harry Truman is now President, but he’s not a popular President. At the time, Truman was not considered by most to be as presidential as FDR. Although WWII was over, the Dems becaming the minority party, losing 55 seats in the House and 12 seats in the Senate.
1966 mid-term elections. After the 1964 elections, with LBJ winning in a land-slide, the Dems had a 295-140 advantage in the House and a 67-33 advantage in the Senate. The LBJ introduced the Great Society, which included Medicare/Medicaid. In addition, the Vietnam war had heated up. The Dems lost 48 seats in the house and 3 seats in the senate.
1978 mid-term elections. In 1976, the United States elected a Georgian named Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carter was considered an honest man who could clean up DC. Instead, President Carter fought with his own party over various issues. The economy wasn’t strong, but it wasn’t yet weak from subsequent stagflation. In the 1978 mid-terms, the Dems lost 3 seats in the Senate and 15 seats in the House.
1982 mid-term elections. The United States elected former California Governor and former actor Ronald Reagan as President. However, the economy was in recession with inflation and unemployment high. Although Reagan is charismatic, his popularity had started to plunge. In the 1982 mid-terms, the Dems gained 27 seats in the House. The Senate, in Republican control (54-46) did not change.
1994 mid-term elections. Bill Clinton was elected 2 years prior with 43% of the vote, and he pushed some ambitious legislation to Congress. Gun-control legislation passed, but Health-care reform died. The Dems lost 54 seats in the house and 8 seats in the Senate. The Republicans are now in control.
As most of you can see, the current 2010 elections are not exactly like any of the above, but all of them have certain similarities to the current environment. Please vote on which model is the closest to our current situation. I’d like any additional thoughts to this diary.
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Than 1994. But I still think economic recovery by mid-year makes 1978-1982 more likely.
Democrats still had control of of the house prior to the midterm election. The gain of 27 seats helped Democrats regain ideological control of the house(ie. there were several bollweevils supporting reagan’s agenda)